The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, seven years from now, have shot up. The odds have now increased to 1 in 43. Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently tops the risk list of the Center for Near Earth Object Studies Sentry. However, there is still no need to panic. While experts and scientists anticipated the probability of its impact to increase, now they also expect a chance of an impact to decrease considerably in the near future as more comes to light about the asteroid’s orbit.
Renowned asteroid hunter David Rannkin precovered asteroid 2024 YR4 with the help of data from the Catalina Sky Survey. Precovered here stands for the process of finding images or data of an astronomical object before its official discovery. Rankin reportedly spotted images of the asteroid in archival data. Earlier this month, the odds of the space rock impacting Earth in 2023 were 1 in 83. This means the chances have now doubled. The latest figure of 1 in 43 essentially shows a 2.3 per cent chance of a strike. “That means we are still at 97.7% chance of a miss from this asteroid,” Rankin was quoted as saying by space.com.
Although the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth have almost doubled, it does not mean that the chances of it missing have halved. Rankin had earlier warned that this was expected, and he had also claimed that the chances may decrease again in the future. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is reportedly a 196-foot-wide asteroid, and it was discovered in December 2024. The asteroid hunter said that there was nothing to worry about. “People should absolutely not worry about this yet,” Rankin told the space news portal.
Even though the asteroid is likely to pass by Earth, its impact is still unclear. And this uncertainty, according to Rankin, happens when a new asteroid like 2024 YR4 is discovered; some aspects of its orbit can be confirmed with more accuracy than others. Rankin explained that one can determine the plane it orbits on but not its exact position along that plane. He said that this leads to a confined uncertainty zone known as “line of variation”.
With the 2024 YR4, the center of this distribution goes through Earth. With improvement in tracking data, the uncertainty is naturally adjusted, which may sometimes lead to increased odds of a potential impact. However, the most probable situation is that the asteroid may safely miss Earth. This assessment is evolving as astronomers collect more information and refine their calculations.
The 2024 YR4 was spotted on December 27, 2024, by the Atlas Telescope in Chile. Reportedly, the space rock is around 40 to 100 meters in diameter. The outcome of the impact is unknown as the current probabilities are mostly based on limited observational data.
Should we panic?
With rapid advancements in asteroid detection technology, there is an increased identification of near-Earth objects. These advancements may lead to more reports on probable asteroid impacts, but it needs to be noted that most of these objects might not pose any real threat. The discovery of 2024 YR4 itself is a testament to the significant progress in planetary defense, with experts assessing and addressing possible risks effectively.
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While the probability of impact has increased slightly, experts have asserted that this is a routine part of the asteroid tracking process. As more observations progress, these probabilities are likely to decrease. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and others are constantly monitoring the asteroid, and these observations will refine predictions. As of now, there is no reason to panic, as our scientists are well-equipped to assess and respond to any potential risks in the future.
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