2025 U.S. Open: Experts’ picks and betting tips

The third major of the year begins with the 2025 U.S. Open from Thursday through Sunday at Oakmont.

Which players do our golf experts think will win? Where do our betting experts believe there is value? We break down the favorites and much more ahead of the 2025 U.S. Open.

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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable

Experts’ picks

Matt Barrie
Jon rahm. Why: Because it’s too easy to pick Scheffler, and Rahm is rounding back into major championship form. He tied for 14th at the Masters and eighth at the PGA Championship. He’s starting to look and remind us that he was the best player on the planet before his LIV defection.

Tory Barron
Scottie Scheffler. By all accounts, Oakmont is a monster primed to chew up any golfer in its way. Thus, it stands to reason the eventual champion will need to be an equally formidable foe. I’m going with the guy who won in three of his past four starts by a combined 17 strokes — because there’s no one scarier than Scheffler on a heater.

Michael Collins
Scheffler. Putting this in Marvel terms — Scheffler has the Infinity Gauntlet (glove) and all the Infinity Stones. Scottie is inevitable. There are only about eight guys who could possibly win on this golf course when the USGA sets it up. Scottie is inevitable.

Jeff Darlington
Scheffler. We’ve reached the point with Scheffler that’s reminiscent of Tiger Woods — where the cliché of picking him to win outweighs the desire to think outside the box. Even though Bryson DeChambeau matches up nicely with Oakmont, Scheffler is just too good and too consistent right now.

Michael Eaves
Sepp Straka. The current Oakmont setup seems to be a throwback to when the U.S. Open perennially played brutally hard, putting a huge emphasis on fairways and greens. So far this season, Straka has been one of the best players on tour when it comes to those aspects of the game. Dude is accurate and confident, having already won twice this year. Plus, five of the last six U.S. Open winners were first-time major winners. Look for Straka to add to that trend.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Scheffler. If it was Scottie vs. the field, I’d pick the field — but that’s not how this exercise works. The part of me that thinks nothing this obvious ever happens wants to pick someone else — the part of me that watches golf is picking Scottie.

Andy North
Scheffler. Won three of past four. At Oakmont you have to hit your irons well, and who’s better than Scottie.

Mark Schlabach
Scheffler. Yeah, I know, it isn’t exactly going out on a limb, but if the task is to pick the golfer who is going to lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday, how could you go with anyone else? I picked Rory McIlroy to win the PGA Championship because of his success at Quail Hollow, and Scheffler once again proved he’s the man to beat. The world No. 1 golfer is playing unbelievably well again, leading the PGA Tour in just about every stroke-gained statistic from tee to green. He’s also 25th in strokes gained: putting, which was supposed to be his weakness. If he’s anywhere near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, no one puts their foot on the gas like Scottie.

Marty Smith
Scheffler. Oakmont is arguably the hardest golf course in the world. It requires uncanny precision and accuracy. Scottie is playing so freely and so precisely, and I think that will continue at Oakmont.

Curtis Strange
Scheffler. No. 1 in world, winner three of his past four events, on one of the strategically toughest courses in world — Oakmont!

Pairs uggs
Jon rahm. I really liked what I saw out of Rahm at the PGA Championship. It wasn’t just that he put himself back in contention for a major for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but it was that his game and competitive juices were once again working together to produce some really compelling golf. His game should set up well for Oakmont, and I like his chances of being one of the few players who can challenge Scheffler this week.

Scott has pelt
Rahm. Because someone has to pick a different player than Scottie.

Betting roundtable

Odds by ESPN BET

Who is your pick to win?

David Gordon, ESPN Research
Rory McIlroy (+1200). McIlroy was just the co-favorite at +450 at last month’s PGA Championship. Now he’s nearly triple the price thanks in part to some equipment issues. I trust Rory to iron out the issues and get back to form at a tournament he’s finished runner-up at in each of the past two years.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Collin Morikawa (+2200). Morikawa has the emotional control and analytical mindset that suits Oakmont. He started the year hot with two runner-up finishes in his first four stats, the Sentry and Arnold Palmer, and has since cooled with only one Top-10 finish since March. He has the build to tackle this course — fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach. If he stays calm and plays his game, Morikawa is quietly in the mix Sunday, and no one would be surprised.

Anita Marks, betting analyst
Jon Rahm (+1200). Rahm has the perfect long game to succeed at Oakmont. He comes into the week in great form, and that feisty mojo is back! His T-14th at the Masters and T-8th at the PGA Championship tells me he can pull this off. Rahm leads LIV in greens in regulation percentage, which is a very important metric on this track.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210).

I’m leaning with spectacular tournament history over mediocre season form with Schauffele at a price I don’t think we’ll see for him too often in the future. He has seven Top-10 finishes in eight career appearances at the U.S. Open, while T-14th is his worst career finish (2022).

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475)

The game of golf is about trusting your swing. With back-to-back Top-10 finishes and positive putting, Bradley has the trust. Bradley is a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly strong around the green. The putter is the most volatile aspect of his game, but Bradley has the ballstriking ceiling that is absolutely high enough to win.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?

Gordon: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150)).

Scheffler has been inside the Top 10 after 10 of his past 11 major rounds (91%) dating back to last year. Each of the past four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the past 11, were inside the Top 10 after 18 holes.

Maldonado: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150))

Third on tour in Round 1 scoring average, Scheffler is beyond elite from the jump. Separating his strokes gained numbers by round, Scottie is at his best off the tee, with his irons, and from tee-to-green in the opening round of tournaments, gaining an average of 3.98 strokes total, at least a full 1.5 strokes better compared to the rest of the three rounds to close. He starts hot, then stays solid the rest of the way.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?

Gordon: Cameron Young: (+10000)

After a brutal start to the season with four missed cuts in a five-start span, Young is coming off a T-4th finish at the RBC Canadian Open and finished tied for seventh in Pennsylvania at the Truist Championship three starts prior. He has plenty of major championship experience and success, with five Top 10s between the 2022 PGA and 2024 Masters.

Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500)

Putting and scrambling are the red flags, but his approach and ballstriking floor is massive. With two Top 10s in his past two starts, his form is peaking. He’s a full-on tee-to-green monster right now, second in the field in the last 32 rounds. If you want a guy with winning-level ballstriking at longer odds, he belongs on your card.

Any other bets stand out to you?

Gordon: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104)

English is in the middle of a career year and has never missed the cut at the U.S. Open in nine career appearances. Fleetwood hasn’t missed a cut this season and hasn’t even been outside the Top 40 through 36 holes in his past 11 starts. I feel rather comfortable putting the two together for this one!

Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140)

The juice is steep but may even still be undervalued. In 31 starts since January 2024, Scheffler has finished top five in 19 of those, including 10 wins. Unlike most juice-heavy markets, this one has the data to back it. Scheffler isn’t volatile, rarely posts a bad round, and even with a cold putter, his ballstriking alone can keep him near the top

Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120)

DJ won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, and that really does feel like a lifetime ago. Since his move to LIV in 2022, Johnson hasn’t even come close to contention in major competition. His best finish in 10 major starts since 2023 is a T-31st at last year’s Open Championship. He’s missed the cut five times, including both the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.

Marks: McIlroy to miss the cut (+290)

McIlroy has not been the same golfer since winning the Masters. He shot a 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open, and he did not play well at Quail Hollow. His driver issue is a real thing, and his iron play has not been stellar. Did he lose his hunger after winning the grand slam? Possibly.

Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190)

Aberg came close to winning the Canadian Open, and I believe we get good value here for him to finish in the Top 20 at plus money. He drives the ball just as well as anyone on tour, and his past five rounds have been in the 60s.

Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170)

Straka is having a career year — he finished third at the Memorial Tournament and has won twice on tour this season. He has the potential to dominate this course with his ballstriking strengths. Straka ranks first greens in regulation, fourth tee-to-green, second strokes gained: approach, and top 10 in driving accuracy