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Maruti Suzuki Q1 profit likely to fall 16% YoY, as muted volumes and weak product mix weigh on earnings.Maruti Suzuki is expected to post a subdued set of numbers for the first quarter of FY26, with profit after tax (PAT) likely to decline 16 per cent year-on-year, according to the average estimates of six brokerages. Revenue is projected to inch up just 2 per cent from the year-ago period, weighed down by muted domestic volumes and an adverse product mix.
The country’s largest passenger vehicle maker had reported a strong March quarter with several one-off expenses, but those reversals in Q1 may not be enough to offset the impact of lower sales volumes and margin compression this time.
Weak volume show, export mix rise
Brokerages noted that volumes grew just 1 per cent YoY during the quarter, with total dispatches standing at around 528,000 units. While export contribution rose to about 18 per cent from 13.5 per cent last year, the share of higher-margin UVs dipped marginally to 30.7 per cent from 31.3 per cent, according to Motilal Oswal.
Phillip Capital and YES Securities also flagged the sequential decline in volumes—down over 12 per cent from Q4 FY25—as a key drag. Domestic volumes fell 17 per cent quarter-on-quarter, though exports offered some cushion, rising 14 per cent during the same period.
Margins under pressure despite rollback of one-offs
Most brokerages expect EBITDA margins to remain flat or contract year-on-year. Nuvama anticipates a decline in gross margin, resulting in EBITDA margin compression. Motilal Oswal pegs the EBITDA margin at 10.5 per cent, down 220 basis points YoY, with a stable QoQ performance.
Phillip Capital attributes the steady margin to a rollback of Q4 one-offs like CSR and advertising spends, partially balancing the negative impact of lower scale, full-quarter Kharkhoda plant costs, and a higher share of low-margin exports.
YES Securities estimates the EBITDA margin at 10.9 per cent, down about 170 basis points YoY, but slightly better sequentially.
Bottomline to reflect operational weakness
On the net profit front, Motilal Oswal expects a steep 19 per cent YoY fall in PAT, while YES Securities forecasts a 9.5 per cent drop. The consensus average points to a 16 per cent decline in Q1 earnings on a YoY basis.
Investors will be watching closely for management commentary on demand trends, the rural recovery narrative, and timelines for new model launches in the remainder of the fiscal.
With cost pressures easing and one-offs behind, the upcoming quarters may see some revival—but Q1 is expected to reflect a cooling-off period after a strong FY25 finish.
