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Liz Loza
Summer is the season of serenity. The days are longer. The burdens are fewer. And the exhalations are deliciously deeper. There is a simple freedom that exists between the months of June and August that makes space for a collective reset.
That’s not to say that responsibilities disappear or that calamity takes the note and goes on its own vacation. Yet, somehow, when dressed in flip-flops and shorts, the capacity to deal with curveballs and chaos magically grows. I am infinitely less stressed by a glowing check engine light or a “per my last email” when moving through the simplicity of summertime.
Sure, that feeling is fleeting. But does it have to be? Must we fully bend the knee to the onslaught of obligations that predictably comes crashing down on or around Sept. 1? Wouldn’t a shallow curtsy suffice?
I’m not suggesting we abandon all decorum and flee the grid. But, honestly, how many colored pencils does a third grader need? Why do we have to invite Cooper’s dad to the cookout when we know he’s going to brag about his latest BBQ hack, take over the grill and burn everyone’s brats? And what if someone just told Janice in HR that nobody likes “Fun Food Friday” because we’d all rather be working remotely at the end of the week and eating Uncrustables out of our own darn fridges?
Who made these rules?!?
While we may not have the power (or gumption) to buck every construct, we can, at the very least, question their validity. Maybe decide which hills are worth dying on instead of belly flopping onto each of them? After all, which are we truly intimidated by: the rule or the consequence? My guess is the latter because consequences are real and, if we’re being sincere, rules are much more malleable.
In fantasy, there are some hard and fast practices about which a league absolutely needs to be in agreement. Things like scoring systems, roster construction and fielding a weekly lineup. Within those guidelines, however, there exists leeway with which to play. For example, I recently attended the Ultimate Draft Weekend at the Baha Mar resort in the Bahamas (cry me a river, I know). The Fantasy Focus crew and I were each asked to, thoughtfully, dole out our lists of “Draft Day Dos and Don’ts.” I was stumped to give an authentic answer. Because, the truth is, there are enough rules in our everyday lives, we don’t need to stuff them into our hobbies as well.
I don’t care if you take a QB in Round 3 or 13. It doesn’t matter if you have a strict “No Cowboys” rule. And feel free to employ your own strategy for valuing insurance backs. Fantasy football is just that … fantasy! It is a “choose your own adventure” for NFL fans. So please, in these final gasps of summer — before parent/teacher conferences, slushy roads and soft tissue injuries begin to pull focus — build your personal dream team.
Have the courage to trust the facts you have researched and the feelings that they evoke. Because that amalgamation of assets is more real than any imagined rule.
With that in mind, below are some of my feelings about specific players heading into my upcoming drafts.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Chicago’s quest to find a franchise QB has been a well-documented and fraught affair. Williams enters his second pro campaign shouldering decades of disappointment and dashed hopes. The pressure is as husky and brawling as the city for which he plays. But the buy-in from team brass is equally weighty and vast. Cracks throughout the organization have been filled with the aim of making Williams whole.
The Bears allowed the seventh-most QB pressures last season. Not surprisingly, Williams ranked among the bottom six in QBR, completion percentage and yards per dropback when pressured. Interestingly, when No. 18 wasn’t pressured, he registered 16 TDs and only two INTs. Ryan Poles & Co. clearly studied the stats, because much of the offseason was spent bolstering Chicago’s trenches, putting together what’s largely believed to be a top-10-ranked unit.
Additionally, the Bears spent their first two picks of April’s draft on highly touted pass catchers (Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III), providing Williams with a deep and talented corps. And, of course, the poaching of Ben Johnson cannot be understated. The Lions’ former OC famously transformed Detroit’s offense while resurrecting Jared Goff‘s career and helping the QB to complete a career-high 72.4% of his passes while throwing for 37 TDs in 2024.
All of this points toward Williams having the tools to make the leap. His two preseason showings are further evidence of the maturation process in action. Call it delusion, but I’m buying. Williams is a top-12 contender available in the 13th round of 10-team exercises, making him a solid target for managers who wait on the position.
Takeaway: Draft ’em
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
An ACL tear in his rookie season and the tumult of the Aaron Rodgers regime haven’t provided Hall with the smoothest of pro transitions. Still, the former Iowa State standout has flashed an every-down skill set that has kept him near the top of RB rankings. Unfortunately, however, it seems unlikely that his versatile talent will be fully utilized in 2025.
Justin Fields has targeted running backs at a rate of only 18% during his career. Conversely, Jets RBs have been targeted at a rate of 25% since Hall joined the squad. It could be argued that Hall’s 13.8% target share (RB3), which resulted in 57 grabs (RB4), were key to him finishing inside the top 20 fantasy producers at the position, especially when noting his lack of rushing efficiency (4.0 true YPC, RB39). Without those extra looks, Hall’s ceiling is squashed.
Plus, Fields’ mobility in combination with Braelon Allen‘s involvement indicates a further reduction in rushing opportunities. Preseason action reinforced this hypothesis, as Hall received 11 of 18 first-team snaps while Allen registered eight snaps (in addition to some third-down work) against the Giants in Week 2. In a game in which volume is king, Hall appears to be more of a pauper. The concern is baked into his sixth-round ADP, but I’d prefer to either reach for TreVeyon Henderson a little less than a round sooner or target Isiah Pacheco a round and a half later.
Takeaway: Fade ’em
1:01
Yates: Tony Pollard offers ‘solid insurance’ for fantasy managers
Field Yates breaks down why Tony Pollard offers solid insurance as an ideal RB3 for fantasy managers.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Pollard may not possess much flash, but his value makes him extra shiny. I’ve been extolling the virtues of his floor for most of the summer. With Tyjae Spears now on IR, the rest of the fantasy community is getting on board. What they may not know, however, is that Pollard received all of the work while Spears was sidelined last year, averaging nearly 25 touches per contest over those particular four weeks. Additionally, the other four running backs on the Titans’ roster have accumulated 280 career rushing yards combined. So, yeah, Pollard is Tennessee’s guy.
In fact, Pollard logged seven games of 22 or more touches in 2024. Only Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams registered more. Yet, each of those players is a top-30 pick, while Pollard has an ADP outside of the top 75. This is likely because of the 28-year-old’s lack of scoring prowess. He registered a mere five carries inside the 5-yard line (tied for 40th in the NFL), which is reflective of the team’s offensive hardships last season. While Cam Ward is a rookie, his struggles are likely to be fewer and farther between than those exhibited by Will Levis.
Simply put, the arrow is pointing up in Music City, for the Titans and the team’s RB1. Consider Pollard a viable RB2 for fantasy purposes this fall.
Takeaway: Draft ’em
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
We love a Year 3 breakout, especially when it comes despite subpar QB play. Kirk Cousins granted London few favors in 2024. Yet, the former USC standout remained productive, averaging 2.45 yards per route run (WR10) while dominating in the red area with 25 red zone looks (WR3) and nine TDs (WR9). A contested-catch specialist with just eight career drops to his name, London is poised to replicate — if not beat — the career numbers (100-1, 271-9) he posted in 2024.
Viewers witnessed a sample of London Unlocked™ when Michael Penix Jr. officially took over in Week 16. In Penix’s three starts, London registered 40 targets (most in the NFL), 352 receiving yards (most in the NFL) and 23.1 PPG (WR2). Assuming Penix can pick up where he left off, London should continue to flourish, particularly from a scoring perspective. In fact, since his 2022 debut, London’s 35% red zone target share has led the league.
With a more efficient passer under center and little competition for looks, the 24-year-old’s ceiling has been undeniably lifted. London has emerged as a fantastic early-third-round fantasy selection, worthy of top-10 positional consideration.
Takeaway: Draft ’em
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The Cheetah has long thrived as an elite fantasy producer, but his 2024 showing has me running (or at least jogging) in the opposite direction. Hill caught just 81 balls last season, which was his lowest reception total since playing 12 games with the Chiefs back in 2019. He also failed to clear 1,000 receiving yards for only the third time in his nine-season career. Digging a bit deeper, his 1.88 yards per route run, 21% target share and six receiving scores were all career lows.
There is room for a rebound, of course, especially following Jonnu Smith‘s departure. However, in his age-31 season, on the heels of two offseason wrist-related procedures, and attached to a Tua Tagovailoa-led offense, the likelihood of a top-10 bounce-back seems unlikely. Not to mention that Hill has been dealing with an oblique issue, which has kept him sidelined for much of camp, since early August.
The vibes are off. And that’s a feeling that doesn’t figure to change given the Dolphins’ schedule. Miami draws three tough divisional matchups for receivers to start the season followed by road tilts in New York (Jets), Pittsburgh and New England come December. Given the depth at WR, a late-third/early-fourth-round pick to secure Hill’s talents seems a bit rich. I’d rather invest in an island position such as QB (Joe Burrow) or TE (George Kittle) around the same spot.
Takeaway: Fade ’em
1:40
Yates: Tetairoa McMillan has upside potential as fantasy WR
Field Yates explains why Tetairoa McMillan has upside fantasy potential as the Panthers’ top receiver.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
There exists a gorgeous glut of high-upside receivers coming off the board in Rounds 8 and 9. George Pickens tops the list at WR28 and breakout darling Rome Odunze rounds it out at WR34. McMillan has emerged somewhere in the middle.
Widely considered one of the top wideouts in this year’s rookie class, the Arizona product knows how to “get tall,” utilizing a volleyball background to climb the ladder and come down with 50/50 balls. More than just a “contested catch guy,” McMillan showcased his versatility in college, posting 3,423 career receiving yards, which was the most in school history and the most in the FBS over the past three seasons.
Some managers might hesitate to invest in a first-year player attached to Bryce Young. Yet, the numbers suggest considerable growth on the part of Young. In fact, he averaged 18 fantasy points per game (QB14) when he resumed the starting gig from Weeks 8 through 18 last season. Additionally, the Panthers’ schedule is cake, with matchups versus Arizona, Atlanta and Miami during the first five weeks of the season.
With Adam Thielen heading back to Minnesota, T-Mac appears locked into a massive target share of 120-plus looks. Given his undeniable talent and a robust number of opportunities, McMillan could surprise as this year’s Brian Thomas Jr.
Takeaway: Draft ’em
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans
I have been captaining the “Okonkwo hype train” for approximately three years now. The wheels are a bit squeaky and there’s admittedly plenty of seating room, but in a preseason column about crafting a dream team he deserves some shine. A player with 97th percentile speed (4.52 40-yard dash) and legit after-the-catch creativity, Okonkwo has regularly flashed since debuting in 2022. While he has struggled to produce on a consistent basis, the opportunity for a substantial leap exists in 2025.
The evolution is evident. Okonkwo recorded 22 grabs on 28 targets for 182 yards over his final three games of 2024. Some may take umbrage with the limited sample size, but it’s worth noting that only five other tight ends had a similarly productive three-game span over all of last season. Those names include: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Jonnu Smith and Cade Otton (when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. were both hurt). That’s solid company.
Additionally, Okonkwo finished second in team targets and receptions last season. With 33-year-old Tyler Lockett and fourth-round rookie Elic Ayomanor as his main competition for looks, the 25-year-old TE figures to become one of Cam Ward‘s most trusted receiving options. In fact, reports out of camp indicate that the two established instant chemistry and have quickly developed a noticeable rapport.
Okonkwo may not post top-5 positional fantasy numbers. However, there is a chance for him to deliver low-end TE1 stats, making the former Maryland standout an acceptable stash for managers intent on streaming the position.
Takeaway: Draft ’em
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