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Liz loza
Have you ever received a piece of news that stole the air from your lungs and made your joints give? Something that shook your perspective as though it was a kid’s kaleidoscope, creating a completely new arrangement of events and subsequent outcomes. A development or scrap of information that not only forced you to a revised conclusion but also made you question how you had ever arrived at the prior destination in the first place?
What did you do in those moments? After the shock wore off. How did you proceed? For me, I become a junior detective, attempting to tease out an accurate timeline or uncover a previously hidden clue. So that the bewilderment of having been blindsided can be replaced by the thrill of putting together a puzzle. Maybe that’s why I dig true crime. Because there’s something satisfying about solving a mystery … even if it doesn’t erase the initial gut punch or unexpected ending.
And it doesn’t have to be a giant revelation. I’m not necessarily referencing the discovery of a secret half-sibling or a deathbed confession detailing a torrid affair. Though those are some loaded curveballs. Truthfully, though, something as simple as … an unexpectedly crowded backfield in Seattle or a three-time Pro Bowl receiver drawing a single look versus a division rival in an island game, can be enough to take the wind out of one’s proverbial sails.
What can we do to prevent ourselves from being so taken aback if it happens again? After all, it will happen again. And we will forgive and, ultimately, remain gleeful volunteers, registering for another 17 weeks of virtual duty regardless. I think the answer is in reviewing the facts and checking our feelings. Miscalculations are human occurrences. Even the robots struggle to properly parse the word “strawberry.” So, we can’t beat ourselves up for not knowing purposefully withheld information. We can, instead, take the new data at our avail and retool our projections.
We are fantasy gumshoes who own our mistakes and strive to learn from them, knowing full well that there is as much delight in investigation as there is in being “right.” Well, as long as that probing successfully gets us to Week 15 and the playoffs.
Now, let’s dig into what we learned, commit to making change, and crack some codes.
Justin HerbertQB, Los Angeles Chargers: How about an unexpected round of applause for rational coaching? Instead of sticking to a run-first narrative on Sunday, Jim Harbaugh flipped the script and let his big-armed quarterback come out slinging. Herbert completed 25 of 34 pass attempts (73.5 CMP%, QB6), leading the Chargers to a decisive victory over the Kansas City Chiefsleaving the reigning AFC champs slack-jawed. Not only did Herbert’s 318 passing yards rank third among QBs, but the Bolts’ 69% passing rate was the sixth-highest in the NFL in Week 1. That’s particularly telling given that the Chargers were the only team in the top nine that won its contest. The other eight clubs each trailed and, understandably, passed more as a result.
Herbert didn’t just use his arm, however. The former Oregon standout also showcased his mobility, taking off seven times for a total of 32 rushing yards (T-QB11). Interestingly, the only QBs to accrue more rushing yards were Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels and Russell Wilson. This well-rounded utilization of Herbert’s diverse skill set suggests he is very much the engine of L.A.’s offense. It also raises his fantasy ceiling. Entering Week 2, Herbert is worthy of top-eight positional consideration as he travels to Vegas to take on the Raiders.
Breece HallRB, New York Jets: Claims of Hall’s 2025 bust potential appear to have been overblown (including by me). The 36th overall pick from just three years ago flaunted his versatility, registering 145 scrimmage yards (RB3) on 21 total touches last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Fields and Braelon Allen did, indeed, vulture the goal line, Hall emphatically manned the backfield. He recorded a 59% snap share, as compared to Allen’s 30% and Isaiah Davis‘ 13% snap share. More specifically, Hall’s 19 totes accounted for over two thirds of the team’s RB rushes.
It didn’t stop there, though. Hall additionally finished second on the squad on looks, converting 2 of 4 targets for 38 receiving yards. The 24-year-old’s involvement in the passing game becomes even more illuminating when noting his nine routes run in juxtaposition to Allen’s three and Davis’ five routes run.
Furthermore, Hall’s improved efficiency points to Fields’ mobility working as a plus for the RB. In 2024, he managed only one contest above 5.6 YPC with a statuesque Aaron Rodgers under center. Interestingly, that effort was versus Buffalothe same team he’ll face in Week 2. Given how much the Bills’ run defense struggled against BaltimoreHall has a shot at nabbing top-15 fantasy numbers this weekend. He may not post elite stats that are reflective of his undeniable talent, but he should absolutely remain part of the high-end RB2 conversation.
Kaleb JohnsonRB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Ah, the joys being Arthur Smith-ed! It wasn’t so much of a surprise to see Jaylen Warren working ahead of Johnson as the Steelers’ RB1. It was, however, rather bristling to witness Kenneth Gainwell assume Pittsburgh’s RB2 role. Not only did Gainwell touch the ball nine more times than Johnson, but the former Eagle actually recorded more snaps than Warren (54% for Gainwell and 44% for Warren). That suggests Gainwell has staying power in Pittsburgh. While the distribution may fluctuate, the crowded nature of this backfield limits each RB’s potential ceiling.
As for Johnson, he’s a legit cut candidate in eight- and 10-team leagues. After all, he played two total offensive snaps, both in the third quarter. Between uneven play throughout training camp, struggles in pass protection and a fumble last Sunday, he’s not likely to be released from Smith’s dog house anytime soon. That leaves Warren as the team’s most fantasy-relevant RB. The fourth-year player’s abilities as a pass catcher broaden his appeal. He projects as a low-end RB2 versus a Seahawks squad that held the 49ers to 3.3 YPC last Sunday.
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR, Arizona Cardinals: Finally some relief! The summer was rife with reports noting improved chemistry between Kyler Murray and Harrison, strongly suggesting (if not promising ) a second-year leap for the Cardinals’ fourth-overall pick from a year ago. If Week 1 was any indication, those reports were spot on. MHJ was Arizona’s most productive passcatcher, converting 5 of 6 looks for 71 yards and a purposeful score in the contest’s second quarter. Digging a bit deeper, Harrison drew just one off-target pass, meaning he not only caught everything in his orbit, but also that Murray was more accurate in locating his No. 1 WR. The data will continue to reveal itself, but there appears (for the moment) to be a welcome improvement on last year’s 54% catch rate.
While TDs can never be guaranteed, similar results can be expected in Week 2. The Cardinals opened as 6.5 favorites over the Carolina Pantherswhich suggests fewer passing opportunities but also allows for more efficiency. Furthemore, Jaycee Horn doesn’t project to be a thorn in Harrison’s side. The Panthers’ star CB didn’t shadow Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 1. In fact, Carolina played the fifth-most zone defense in the league last Sunday. This all boosts Harrison’s floor, making him a solid WR2 for fantasy purposes in Week 2.
Brian Thomas Jr.WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Deep breaths. We know Thomas is a proven field stretcher who can drag a subpar QB into production. We also know he’s finding his way in a new scheme with recently added bodies. While he didn’t manage the start that investors had counted on, there is proof that brighter days are ahead. Yes, a 1-11-0 stat line looks awful. And it is. However, Thomas drew seven looks. That’s just one fewer than Travis Hunter. And he garnered those opportunities in a game that didn’t require the offense to push the ball downfield. Additionally, Liam Cohen found a way to get him involved, drawing up an end-around that resulted in a score. Clearly, Thomas remains a point of focus for Jacksonville’s offense.
He’s likely to bounce back big-time this weekend at Cincinnati. The Bengals defense remains a sieve. While Cincy surrendered just 16 points to ClevelandAl Golden’s squad gave up 290 passing yards (fifth most) to Joe Flacco! Moreover, the game was so close that four of the Browns’ pass catchers reached or exceeded eight targets. This tilt figures to be closer and higher-scoring, as evidenced by the 3.5-point spread and the 49.5-point game total. As such, consider Thomas a top-10 fantasy option at the position in Week 2.
Stefon DiggsWR, New England Patriots: LSU fans are deeply acquainted with the lore surrounding Kayshon Boutte‘s unmet potential. Once upon a time, Boutte led a Tigers corps that included Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabersbefore suffering a season-ending ankle fracture in 2021. That injury and the subsequent surgeries torpedoed Boutte’s draft stock and buried him on the Patriots depth chart. His six-catch, 103-receiving-yard performance in Week 1, therefore, can’t be overlooked. This might be one of the best comebacks in the making. That doesn’t mean, however, that Diggs will be erased from the equation.
The vet ran only 10 routes on a 46% snap rate (Boutte 81%, Demario Douglas 65%, Mack Hollins 53%), but he was also shaking off rust in his first game back from an ACL tear. That number is bound to increase, especially given what we know about Diggs’ expectations for himself and his involvement. It’s also worth noting that his seven looks on 10 routes run were tied for the highest target-per-route by any player in the NFL over the last five seasons. That’s some impressive efficiency.
Boutte may offer managers the highest ceiling, but don’t sleep on Diggs’ floor, particularly when facing a Dolphins defense he battled on the regular during his time with the Bills. In fact, not only has Diggs averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game over his nine career efforts versus Miami, but he has cleared 10 fantasy points in each of them. Consider the 31-year-old a capable flex option on Sunday in deeper leagues with PPR-friendly formats.
Tyler WarrenThe, the Indianapolis Colts:Flawed analysis pervaded plenty of Week 1, but the syncopation of Warren’s drumbeat made for some beautiful music. The John Mackey Award winner shattered expectations, finishing as fantasy’s TE3 (14.9 fantasy points) in his professional debut. Warren emerged as one of Daniel Jones‘ favorite targets early in the Colts’ blowout win over the Dolphins. Not only did he lead Indy’s pass catchers in looks, but his nine targets were also tied for the second most among all tight ends, behind only (potential outlier) Juwan Johnson. Even better, Warren’s 31% target share was tied for second behind proven vet Dallas Goeds.
Warren didn’t just draw opportunities, though. He converted them as well. The Penn State standout additionally recorded seven grabs (tied with Johnson for the second most) and posted 76 receiving yards (tied for the third most behind only Brock Bowers and I am Laporta). And all of this production came on just 20 routes in a 25-point victory. Imagine Warren’s stat line when Jones is inevitably chasing points? Or when he’s desperate for a safety valve while being pressured by a ferocious defensive front? Both could be on tap Sunday versus Denver. Fire up Warren as a top-6 positional option in Week 2.
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