Week 2 NFL best bets, betting analysis, picks and props

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak and Seth Walder bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and moneylines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. As always, odds are from ESPN BET.

With that, let’s dive into Week 2.

Note: This file will be updated through Saturday with new bets — including Seth Walder’s defensive props — as the odds become available.

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Game bets | Offensive props

Game bets

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets total points OVER 46.5 (-110)

Solak: Two of Week 1’s highest-scoring teams meet in Week 2, and I like the way both offenses match into the opposing defenses.

Josh AllenJoe Brady and the Bills fried Aaron Glenn’s defense last season with 48 points, with Allen averaging an absurd .46 EPA per dropback. In Week 1, the Jets defense under Glenn looked much the same as his Detroit Lions defense did — they played man at the third-highest rate of Week 1 and blitzed at the seventh-highest rate. Expect Allen to scramble a lot, which we’ll get to in another bet later on.

Can the Jets throw their way into the game if they’re trailing against the Bills? That’s the big question here. Last week the Jets had a run rate over expectation, as measured by Next Gen Stats of 21.4% — that would have been the seventh-highest number in a single game last season. They didn’t want to throw the ball much with Justin Fields back there, and that’s a reasonable plan — but if they’re in an early hole, they might have to.

The good news is that I think they can run it well against Buffalo’s light boxes and nickel personnel, such that they won’t need to abandon the run unless they’re truly getting blown out of the water. It may be worth taking a first half over instead of a full game over, if you’re really worried about game script — but I’m impressed enough with the Jets offense to trust them to contribute to the full game number.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs total points UNDER 46.5 (-105)

Solak: The Chiefs secondary looked surprisingly susceptible in their season opener against the Los Angeles Chargersand I’ll be looking for overs in Chiefs games as the season goes on and their receiver room returns to health — but not this week. The Eagles remain one of the heaviest running teams over expectation — especially with Jalen Hurts scrambling on a whopping 24% of his dropbacks in Week 1 — and as such encourage a running clock. With Xavier Worthy likely laid up for this game, the Chiefs lack big-play threats and project to move the ball methodically as they throw to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce.

Tennessee Titans +5.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Solak: I was a believer in the Titans in preseason, and after throwing away an eminently winnable game against a tough Denver Broncos squad, I’m backing them for their home opener against the Rams. Both starting guards for Los Angeles, Kevin Dotson and Steve Avilaare expected to miss this game. That’s a huge deal against the defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweatwhich is easily a top-five duo in the league right now. The Rams offense feasts against poor tackling secondaries, but Tennessee’s is one of the best.

The Titans’ pass protection and running game suffered against Denver’s loaded defensive front and heavy blitz packages, and while the Rams’ defensive line is the strength of their defense, it’s a cut below Denver’s. I like rookie QB Cam Ward to have a calmer game at home and for Calvin Ridley to not drop as many first downs (three!) as he did in Week 1. Titans keep this close — and I’ll also be sprinkling a little on the moneyline.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers total points UNDER 39.5 (-105)

Solak: The Steelers offense is perhaps my strongest Week 2 fade. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the league in throws behind the line of scrimmage in Week 1, yet had the third-highest explosive pass rate. That simply isn’t sustainable. The Jets secondary had tons of busted coverages; that doesn’t happen in a Mike Mcdonald defense. It’ll also be far tougher for Rodgers to interpret the pre-snap picture of Seattle’s movement-heavy defense relative to the Jets’ line up-and-play approach, and that’s his only remaining superpower now that his mobility has depreciated.

Seattle’s offensive approach was peculiar in Week 1 — little play-action, lots of empty sets — and I harbor some concern that they walk out with a different game plan in Week 2. But this Steelers defensive line has enough of a talent advantage over the Seahawks’ group that I think Seattle struggles to move the ball no matter how they play offense.

Offensive player props

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Josh Allen to post 35+ rushing yards (-110)

Solak: Stylistically, this is the sort of defense against which Allen breaks the pocket a ton, and he can get to this number on only a few attempts if he breaks off a big one. But the Jets secondary really struggled in Week 1 passing off routes and adjusting to motion; their tackling in space also left much to be desired. The Bills offense should cruise.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. to go OVER 2.5 receptions (Even)

Solak: We saw a big day for Saquon Barkley through the air against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, as they elected to play almost nothing but zone coverage against the Eagles’ passing offense. That’s not really a one-off, as new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has always been one of the highest zone coverage defensive coaches, and accordingly, running backs see an increase in targets and receptions when facing him.

At first glance, it looks like Tracy (three receptions in Week 1) isn’t much more the pass-catching back over rookie Cam Tax Bo (two receptions). But Skattebo had those two catches on just three routes, whereas Tracy ran 25 routes. If the Giants trail again — a reasonable expectation on a 5.5-point spread — then Tracy should see decent checkdown volume. I’m taking over 3.5 receptions as well (+275).

Walder: We went two for two on these in Week 1, so let’s keep it rolling. The idea here is simple: since the start of last season, running backs catch passes on 10% of man coverage plays but on 15% of zone coverage plays. So my theory is that that isn’t fully baked into the betting line, and therefore I target overs against zone coverage teams and unders against man coverage teams.

Last week in his first game as the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus ran zone coverage on an almost outrageous 86% of dropbacks, leading all teams in Week 1 (it was tied for the 10th-highest zone coverage rate in a regular-season game since the start of last season). The beneficiary in Week 2 ought to be Tracy (and perhaps Cam Skattebo, too).

Also worth considering:

Kayshon Boutte to post 100+ receiving yards (+850)

Walder: There’s two ways this can be a great bet. First, what if the Boutte we saw in Week 1 is just the real deal? Heck, what if the Boutte we saw in the last three games of 2024 and Week 1 — when he earned a combined 2.8 yards per route run! — is the real deal? If so, getting +850 on a 100-yard game seems pretty darn good. But then there’s also this: Boutte is an extreme vertical threat. No wide receiver with at least 20 routes in Week 1 ran a higher rate of go routes and deep fades than Boutte (40%). What that means is that his right-tail outcome is more likely than most to deliver. And that’s a big reason why my model — which prices this prop at +537 — likes him on this alternate line.

Cooper coup to post 40+ receiving yards (+120)

Walder: I’m going back to the well again with Kupp after losing out on a higher alt line of his last week. Kupp’s debut as a Seahawk was disappointing, no doubt about it. Three targets, two receptions, 15 yards. But there was one encouraging number in there: he was on the field on 88% of the team’s dropbacks. That, to me, is why it’s worth holding the line on him.

From the model’s perspective: this is a player whose average prop line last year was 66.8. Even in a new offense with a different quarterback and a year older, he should be plus-money to get 40 receiving yards. It makes Kupp -165 to hit this number.

While I don’t think the model quite handles a role change perfectly, directionally I’m willing to trust it.

Josh Allen under 0.5 interceptions (-130)

Walder: The ideal combination of interception avoidance is a quarterback who doesn’t throw many picks whose team is a heavy favorite. And look what we have here! Since the start of last season, Allen has a 0.9% interception rate (including playoffs), which is basically half the league average, and the Bills area 6.5-point favorite at the Jets. The Bills shouldn’t have to pass too frequently if they get out to a lead, and when Allen does pass he should be able to limit his risks, given the opponent. My model prices this under at -154.

Daniel Jones to throw 1+ interception (+120)

Solak: Daniel Jones was impressive in his Week 1 Colts debut, but this number should not be plus money. For one, the Colts were actually fairly dropback-heavy in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins when you adjust for the script. In the first half, they had a run rate over expectation of only +2.8% — above the league average. They called a dropback on 58.1% of their opportunities. In a projected neutral script against the Broncos, we could see that total dropback rate increase.

Then we have the differences in pass defense caliber. It’s not an exaggeration to say the Colts played against a bottom-three pass defense in Week 1 and now face a top-three pass defense in Week 2. Given Jones is still new to this offense and the receivers, having spent half of camp in a training camp battle with Anthony Richardson, and given his penchant for highly erratic play under pressure, I like the interception number here.