Former featherweight title challenger Diego Lopes looks to get back in the win column against Jean Silva in the main event at Noche UFC on Saturday from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio (6 p.m. ET, prelims at 3 p.m. on ESPN+).
Lopes, ESPN’s No. 3-ranked featherweightlost to Alexander Volkanovski in a bout for the vacant championship in his last Octagon appearance. Before the loss, Lopes was riding a five-fight winning streak.
Silva is undefeated in the UFC and has finished each of his past five opponents (four knockouts, one submission).
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their predictions on the main event, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.
Featherweight main event
Silva is clearly hard to take down, as his takedown defense has held up well. He submitted a dangerous black belt in Bryce Mitchell in his last fight. Diego isn’t a great grappler, and he’s hittable. But Silva is someone you can’t take too many shots from. Something that gets lost in all of Silva’s antics is his technical ability. He has his hands down and he’s playful, but he’s a technician who carries a lot of power. Not only does Silva win this fight, but I think he will go a long way in this division. — Anthony Smith
It’s hard to go against Silva. Lopes gets hit a little too much, and Silva is too accurate. I don’t think he’ll knock Lopes out because Lopes is tough, and if it comes to it, he’ll take the fight to the mat and pull guard before he allows himself to get knocked out. — Your thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Sept. 11. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
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Parker: Over 2.5 rounds (-150). Lopes vs. Silva has everything you can hope for in a main event — two well-rounded fighters with great durability who are always looking for a finish. While I expect this fight to have many hold-your-breath moments, I do see it going into the championship rounds.
Each of Lopes’ past three fights has gone the distance, but Silva hasn’t had a fight go to a decision since he competed on “Dana White’s Contender Series” in 2023. However, Silva has not fought anyone ranked in the UFC’s top 5, and Lopes has yet to be finished in his UFC career. I think Lopes has a major advantage if he can put Silva on his back, but on the feet, the striking is nearly even. Take the over 2.5 rounds here.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
Gordon to win by KO, TKO or decision. This is the perfect matchup for Gordon, who is entering this fight following a first-round knockout of Thiago Moises. Gordon is a better fighter than Garcia, both on the feet and on the mat, but Garcia is more durable. Gordon is a -255 favorite by ESPN BET, and I don’t mind laying the juice here because I don’t see how he could lose the fight. If the moneyline odds are too pricey for you, take Gordon to win by KO, TKO or decision.
Lightweight: Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva
Silva to win (even). Despite coming into this matchup riding a two-fight losing streak, Puelles is a surprising betting favorite over Silva. Puelles’ only path to victory is securing a leg lock — and I just don’t see it for him. Silva is the better athlete and the better striker. I expect him to keep this standing and get the better of Puelles throughout the fight. If Silva can push the pace the way he did against Clay Guida this past December, look for Puelles to tire out and potentially get finished.
Men’s flyweight: Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria
Costa to win (-400). Costa has had ups and downs inside the Octagon, but his two losses have been to tough competition in Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. When he fought down in the rankings, he knocked out Jimmy Flick and Kevin Borjas.
At near 3-to-1 odds, look to put Costa in your parlay. Coria is a good prospect with an equal balance of knockout and submission finishes, but this is a big jump up in competition, and I don’t see it going well for him. Costa will keep the fight on the feet, if he is having success, but if needed, he can take it to the ground, too. As long as he doesn’t slip up, expect Costa to get the win.
