Best Bets & Predictions for Week 5

The chalk hit in Week 4 as Brochure Nacua continued his domination of targets in Week 4, turning 15 targets into 170 receiving yards.

As passing yardage increased, there was a slight increase in 100-yard receiving games with 10 players hitting the century mark.

Eight wide receivers reached 100 receiving yards along with two running backs, but tight ends were shut out from the century club for the second consecutive week.

In Week 4, running backs had a season high in positional target rate at 19.2%, which resulted in a season low 54.4% of targets for the wide receiver group across the league, down from 58.1% in Week 1.

This is the second straight week in which receivers forfeited volume to running backs, and the trend could continue as offenses look for a way to combat offensive line injuries.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

[[[“Week”,”Wide Receiver”,”Receiving Yards”,”Opponent”],[“1″,”Zay Flowers”,”140″,”Buffalo Bills”],[“2″,”Malik Nabers”,”167″,”Dallas Cowboys”],[“3″,”Tre Tucker”,”145″,”Washington Commanders”],[“4″,”Puka Nacua”,”170″,”Los Angeles Rams”]],[{“row”:0,”col”:0,”visualRow”:0,”visualCol”:0,”prop”:0},{“row”:0,”col”:1,”visualRow”:0,”visualCol”:1,”prop”:1},{“row”:0,”col”:2,”visualRow”:0,”visualCol”:2,”prop”:2},{“row”:0,”col”:3,”visualRow”:0,”visualCol”:3,”prop”:3},{“row”:1,”col”:0,”visualRow”:1,”visualCol”:0,”prop”:0},{“row”:1,”col”:1,”visualRow”:1,”visualCol”:1,”prop”:1},{“row”:1,”col”:2,”visualRow”:1,”visualCol”:2,”prop”:2},{“row”:1,”col”:3,”visualRow”:1,”visualCol”:3,”prop”:3},{“row”:2,”col”:0,”visualRow”:2,”visualCol”:0,”prop”:0},{“row”:2,”col”:1,”visualRow”:2,”visualCol”:1,”prop”:1},{“row”:2,”col”:2,”visualRow”:2,”visualCol”:2,”prop”:2},{“row”:2,”col”:3,”visualRow”:2,”visualCol”:3,”prop”:3},{“row”:3,”col”:0,”visualRow”:3,”visualCol”:0,”prop”:0},{“row”:3,”col”:1,”visualRow”:3,”visualCol”:1,”prop”:1},{“row”:3,”col”:2,”visualRow”:3,”visualCol”:2,”prop”:2},{“row”:3,”col”:3,”visualRow”:3,”visualCol”:3,”prop”:3},{“row”:4,”col”:0,”visualRow”:4,”visualCol”:0,”prop”:0},{“row”:4,”col”:1,”visualRow”:4,”visualCol”:1,”prop”:1},{“row”:4,”col”:2,”visualRow”:4,”visualCol”:2,”prop”:2},{“row”:4,”col”:3,”visualRow”:4,”visualCol”:3,”prop”:3}],[],[]][]

Week	Wide Receiver	Receiving Yards	Opponent
1	Zay Flowers	140	Buffalo Bills
2	Malik Nabers	167	Dallas Cowboys
3	Tre Tucker	145	Washington Commanders
4	Puka Nacua	170	Los Angeles Rams

Most Week 5 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Tetairoa McMillan (+1800)

Attorney McMillan is a high variance play this season.

Unfortunately, Dave channels has yet to find a way to provide McMillan with some layups.

McMillan hit a season high 97.5% route per dropback rate on Sunday and has been on the field for 91.5% of the dropbacks in the opening month of the season.

He has 24.5% of the team’s targets and has eclipsed 25% of the Panthers’ targets in three of the four weeks.

McMillan is on the field and earning targets.

However, last week he averaged 13.25 air yards per target and has a 10.57 air yards per target on the season, which has resulted in a 51.4% reception rate.

The Dolphins are allowing 9.2 yards per target to outside wide receivers, rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed, and 30th in pressure rate, which should provide a slight bump in efficiency for Bryce Young.

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Week 5 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Darius Slayton Ladders

Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
50+ Receiving Yards (+127)
70+ Receiving Yards (+288)
100+ Receiving Yards (+960)

Malik Nabers wants the ball when he is on the field, so Darius Slayton’s production was limited when Nabers was on the field.

Since drafting Nabers, Slayton has been targeted on 10.1% of his routes and averaged 0.90 yards per route when Nabers is on the field.

Without Nabers, his target rate more than doubles to 22.4% and his yards per route average jumps to 1.77.

There is a slight drawback with Jaxson Dart dealing with a hamstring injury, which is likely reducing his ability to push the ball down the field.

Nevertheless, Slayton has a great matchup.

The Saints are allowing 12.4 yards per target to outside receivers.

A great live betting opportunity exists if Dart leaves the game early with an injury as this is the one matchup where I prefer a healthy Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston over Dart with a hamstring strain.