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Eric Karabell
Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.
Seattle Seahawks WR Cooper Coupno longer among the top options in fantasy football, once caught 1,947 yards worth of passes for the 2021 Los Angeles Rams. He just missed the all-time, single-season mark of 1,964 receiving yards achieved by Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson during the 2012 season. Others have threatened to reach 2,000 receiving yards in recent seasons, including Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson and Miami Dolphins star Tyreek Hill. Cincinnati Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase led the league with 1,708 receiving yards last season.
Don’t be surprised if … Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes the first to 2,000 receiving yards
Here we go again with another “Chase for 2K.” With nearly 300 receiving yards over the past two games, Smith-Njigba, in his third season out of Ohio State, leads the NFL with 696 receiving yards, a pace for a cool 1,972 yards. Some might question whether Smith-Njigba, who finished 12th with 1,130 receiving yards last season, can continue this excellent start with QB Sam Darnold overachieving, with two solid running backs and with Kupp a factor in the passing game. The answer is yes, he can.
First off, stop thinking that Darnold is overachieving. As with Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Baker Mayfieldwhat happened early in a player’s career becomes, at some point, irrelevant. Darnold was fantastic for the Vikings last season, tossing 35 touchdown passes with 4,319 passing yards. The No. 9 fantasy QB from last season enters Week 7 as the No. 12 option, but if we remove a disappointing Week 1, he is eighth. Darnold is third in passing yards. He is good enough.
As for the running game, fantasy managers might have noticed that neither Kenneth Walker III nor Zach Charbonnet are exactly thriving. The Seahawks rank 24th in rushing yards per game, despite being sixth in rushing attempts. The passing game is alive and well. The running game is not. Meanwhile, Kupp, at four receptions per game, is not much of a factor. When Darnold throws, Smith-Njigba is targeted more than 36% of the time. The schedule is also favorable. It is time for a 2,000-yard receiver.
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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Speaking of Mayfield, who is a legitimate NFL MVP contender, it doesn’t seem to matter which of his receivers are available. Veteran WR Mike Evans (hamstring), might play this week. He sat out three games and still should reach 1,000 receiving yards for the 13th time in 13 seasons. Watch TE Cade Otton. His numbers don’t excite, with 15 receptions in six games, but nine of those catches came during the past fortnight. Otton thrived last season when injuries forced out Evans. Over a three-game span around this time in October/November, Otton caught 25 passes for 258 yards and three TDs. He can reprise this.
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Speaking of 2,000 receiving yards, a few might remember the first 2025 version of the “Don’t be surprised” series this past Jan. 7 when someone predicted Rams WR Puka Nacua would be the first to reach this mark. Through five games, Nacua was on pace to do just that. Then he hurt his ankle in Week 6, and it seems likely he will sit out Sunday’s game in London. That would take 2,000 yards out of the equation for him. Oh well. Perhaps that writer meant Smith-Njigba instead. Watch Nacua return in Week 9 and finish among the top three WRs anyway.
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Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown enter Week 7 as the top three wide receivers in PPR scoring. They have something else in common: Each is on a bye in Week 8. Plan ahead, as six teams are off in Week 8. Don’t be surprised if 99% of fantasy managers ignore this information until next Tuesday and we see a lot of Malik Washington and Hunter Renfrow types (you don’t want this) in lineups.
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Philadelphia Eagles THE Dallas Goedert leads the position with five touchdown grabs, which is awesome, but probably makes unhappy WR teammate A.J. Brown cringe each time it happens. Brown wants more love. So does DeVonta Smith. Well, everyone does, really. Still, Goedert sat out 15 games over the past three seasons. Add him, but he is unlikely to lead tight ends in touchdowns. How about Dolphins revelation Darren Waller? He has four scores in three games, but thanks to the team’s odd in-game, load management schedule, he has only six receptions that weren’t touchdowns. In a way, he is this season’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (now a teammate), who famously converted nine of 32 receptions into touchdowns for the Tennessee Titans last season.
One would think the Patriots would give the Ohio State rookie a legitimate shot after longtime starter Rhamondre Stevenson ran 13 times for 18 yards against the New Orleans Saints last week. Stevenson scored on a couple of short touchdown runs in Week 5 at Buffalo, but he is averaging 3.1 yards per rush overall, and he still has a fumbling problem. Henderson fared marginally better against the Saints, with 36 yards on 10 touches, but he looks better. He is better. Henderson must run all over the Tennessee Titans this week.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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We continue to discuss New York Giants star Cam Tax House because it sure looks as if he is an RB1 option. In fact, he might be a better option than Eagles star Saquon Barkley. Skattebo pummeled his way to three touchdown runs against the Eagles last week. Barkley has three touchdown runs in six games, and, after surpassing 2,000 rushing yards last season, he is on pace for fewer than 1,000 this season. Skattebo boasts more than 20 touches in three consecutive weeks, and his team doesn’t do its tush push with the quarterback, which aids Skattebo. In fact, Skattebo could lead running backs in touchdown runs this season. He’s only two behind Jonathan Taylor despite 33 fewer rushing attempts.
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Barkley will surpass 1,000 rushing yards this season, assuming he plays in 15 or so games, but managers expected a lot more. It’s not a particularly wise time to trade for him, but these current numbers, they are too ugly. The Eagles must establish the running game — and soon. They should. Barkley was all over my “Do Not Draft” list this season, but I didn’t expect him to go from 22.2 PPR points per game to 14.9.
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Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has looked better in recent weeks, culminating in his 51 rushing yards in the win over the Detroit Lions. He needs more volume because there is no way the Chiefs want QB Patrick Mahomes to lead the team in rushing yards, which he still is. It’s dangerous for Mahomes and it says too much about the running backs. Watch Pacheco get more volume this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Perhaps he can become an occasional flex play.
Don’t be surprised if … New Orleans Saints QB Spencer Rattler becomes a safer QB2 soon
Few are paying attention to Rattler in ESPN standard leagues, as he remains available in 96.3% of leagues. Rattler is the No. 18 fantasy QB so far, but among the passers more popular on rosters are Carson Wentz, Cam Ward and Joe Burrow (65%, but in IR slots mostly). Rattler is averaging 14.3 points. It isn’t great, and perhaps it is achieved because he has thrown only one interception in six games (the old Alex Smith method of providing fantasy value, in a way), but look at the schedule. The Saints face the Chicago Bears and Buccaneers the next two games. These defenses permit myriad fantasy points to QBs. Rattler is competent, WR Chris Olave is terrific and, again, six quarterbacks are on a bye in Week 8. Playing Rattler in Week 8 is more than reasonable.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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As a southpaw myself, I love that Sunday’s matchup between Dolphins lefty Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland Browns lefty Dillon Gabriel is the first matchup between starting quarterbacks who do not throw with their right hands since … 2006 when Michael Vick faced Chris Simms. How is that possible? Well, look around. There aren’t many lefties. Jim Zorn played a long, long time ago. I like Atlanta Falcons lefty Michael Penix Jr. the best among current portsiders for fantasy, but the numbers are not there yet. Excuse me, I’m going to watch some Ken Stabler highlights now.
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New York Jets starter Justin Fields has scored more than 25 points in three of his five starts. That is so impressive. Has your fantasy starter achieved this? Probably not, since only Mahomes can match this number. Josh AllenMayfield and Jalen Hurtscurrently second, third and fourth in QB points, have combined for three 25-point outings. OK, so Fields was awful in Week 7. We all admit that. He threw for only 45 yards. Ignore it. It is one week. The Jets don’t have a Tyler Shough or Shedeur Sanders lurking, or Kirk Cousins or Kenny Pickett. It’s Tyrod Taylor. Fields is an exceptional runner. He might not score 25 points this week, but he’s not losing his job, and he really shouldn’t lead the most-dropped list for QBs since he really is (most of the time) more than serviceable for fantasy … and in Week 8 he faces the Bengals.
