Kylian Mbappe’s future has been one of the hottest topics of a manic summer transfer window, and on Friday evening the story went into overdrive.
Paris Saint-Germain left Mbappe, their star striker and the captain of France’s national team, out of their travelling squad for a four-match pre-season tour in the Far East and put him up for sale, with the Ligue 1 champions believing he intends to let his contract expire then join Spain’s Real Madrid next summer on a free transfer.
This is just the latest escalation in an epic transfer saga, and follows Mbappe’s decision not to extend a deal which runs until the end of the coming season, by a further year.
So how did it come to this, why are PSG quite so annoyed about it, will anyone rival Real Madrid for Mbappe’s signature, and what will happen next?
The Athletic explains…
Why have PSG left Mbappe out of this pre-season tour?
Paris Saint-Germain have left Kylian Mbappe off their pre-season tour because, they say, they no longer see him as part of their plans. He is now for sale in the current transfer window, and therefore will not travel with his team-mates today (Saturday) to start the club’s four-game trip to Japan and South Korea.
Why is one of the world’s best footballers no longer a part of their plans, you ask? Well, that’s a lot to do with a transfer saga that has been running on repeat for the last few summers. This time, though, matters have escalated a tad.
The reason PSG are sidelining the France captain, and arguably the best footballer on the planet these days (sorry, Lionel Messi), is because they have become convinced Mbappe has already agreed to leave them for free when his contract expires next summer, and sign for Real Madrid. PSG, understandably, absolutely do not want their (and the world’s) best player to leave for nothing. Their stance is that he either goes now for a (massive) fee, or for a fee next summer.
Mbappe signed a new two-year contract last summer that included a 12-month extension clause for the 2024-25 season. However, only Mbappe can trigger that extension, not PSG, and the deadline for doing so is July 31 this year.
Last month, Mbappe informed the club he did not intend to activate this extension, but publicly has reaffirmed that he still intends to stay with them for the 2023-24 season. This raised alarm bells at the club’s headquarters, and in a three-page letter written to Mbappe earlier this month, in response to the player’s own correspondence in the other direction, they insisted he either renews/extends his contract, or is sold. They set a deadline of July 31.
Friday’s dramatic escalation has taken place because the club say they do not want to be left in paralysis. Without certainty about Mbappe’s future, they cannot plan ahead.
The club say there has been no communication between Mbappe’s camp and the club since his return to training, despite PSG asking for clarity by July 15. So, they have decided to omit him from their tour squad and put him up for sale.
Mbappe signed a two-year contract with an option for a third in 2022 (Photo: Getty)
Is this just a play by PSG to try to force him out?
This is a play, for sure. But it is a play to try to avoid a scenario where Mbappe runs down his contract, then walks away.
As mentioned above, PSG have two stances regarding Mbappe: either he leaves in this window for a fee, or he renews his contract and departs, also for a fee, in a year’s time. Why? Because, financially, Mbappe departing for nothing next season would be a major blow. His contract is one of the richest in world sport, so its cost is expensive in itself. So much so that potential new investors in the club see it as a liability. A free-agent departure next year will mean the club missing out on a big fee for a world-class player too. Such an outcome, according to PSG, would hugely affect their room for manoeuvre in terms of the sport’s financial fair play rules. But there is the threat too, they claim, that players may be sold, and of other staff changes
The club also want to show they are practising what they preach. They have long outlined the onset of a new era for PSG, where the player-power of old would be quashed, and with an emphasis on no one person being above the club as an institution. The suspension of Messi last season — for making an unauthorised trip to Saudi Arabia that meant he missed training — was outlined as the first big example of this, and their stance with Mbappe now is a continuation of it.
It is a message that has been reiterated by club president Nasser Al Khelaifi both in public, speaking during Luis Enrique’s unveiling as PSG’s new head coach two weeks ago, and in private, when he addressed the players before their first full squad training session this week.
“If someone thinks they’re doing the club ‘a favour’ by being here, and thinks they’re above the club, (they should) go now,” he told the squad.
Who really holds the power here?
The fact that PSG have taken this unprecedented step to omit Mbappe from their tour to Japan and South Korea underlines where the power lies. He holds the cards. His contract runs until the end of the coming season, and PSG gave him the power to decide whether or not to extend it until the summer of 2025.
Where PSG will try to wrestle back some influence will be over the nature of his departure.
If Mbappe’s final season at the Parc des Princes is spent confined to the substitutes bench, it will affect his on-field legacy. So would leaving without a fee, as PSG can claim that he is hurting the club financially by doing so and therefore impacting their ability to succeed in the future.
What’s the risk for Mbappe?
There are definitely some risks for him. One is that he alienates the supporters, and leaves the club with his legacy blemished. The PSG ultras are not a docile bunch and may not take too kindly to a player who is known to be running down his contract. The other risk factor is that he might see limited game time in the coming season if the club maintain this hardball stance. Legacy does matter to Mbappe, and after all, PSG are his hometown club.
He has made no secret of his desire to hunt down and break records. This includes at PSG, where last season he became their record goalscorer with 212 — among a swathe of other milestones. Playing fewer minutes would affect his ability to set more records, and would also not be ideal preparation for next summer’s European Championship (France are well on their way to qualifying with four wins out of four so far). But the degree to which this matters to Mbappe is a personal one. His contractual future, and the direction it takes, is very much in his own hands.
Mbappe may not get much love from PSG fans from now on (Photo: Getty)
Why are PSG so angry?
There may be a sense of deja vu regarding a Mbappe contract drama and PSG. And there is something to that. For the past three summers, the future of Mbappe, and the spectre of him moving to Real Madrid, have loomed large in the French capital. But this time feels materially different.
On the one hand, PSG are trying to embark on their ‘new era’, and this saga detracts from that. On the other, there is a breakdown in relationships between the parties. PSG are annoyed because they feel, ultimately, Mbappe gave his ‘word’ that he would not leave for free. They feel they have supported Mbappe for seven years as a player and that a departure which sees them not banking any fee (thus enabling him to potentially pocket those funds his next club would otherwise pay for him in salary) is the equivalent of a betrayal.
The counter-argument, of course, is that PSG gave Mbappe the keys to his future with that contract they offered a year ago.
Is the interest from Real Madrid genuine?
Madrid have learned from the mistakes of the past, and especially from the soap opera of 2022. Madrid and Mbappe, according to the player’s entourage, reached a deal that would earn the Frenchman a €130million (£112.5m/$144.7m at current exchange rates) signing bonus, €26m net per season salary, and give him 100 per cent of his image rights.
That is why Madrid have always remained in the background, away from the spotlight. The official position is that there is no interest in Mbappe from the Bernabeu, but the reality is quite different.
When asked about Mbappe earlier this week, Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti said: “I have never talked about players who are not at Real Madrid. I can talk about (new signings Jude) Bellingham, Arda Guler, Fran Garcia, Brahim (Diaz), who has returned very well from Milan… Talking about players who are not here doesn’t seem right to me.”
But, as The Athletic revealed in January, Madrid have never ceased contact with Mbappe’s entourage. The plan was, and still is, that if he became available, they would be in a position to make a move.
At Madrid there are, however, still many doubts — they do not fully trust Mbappe, given what has happened in previous windows, nor PSG, who they currently consider their main institutional rival. Madrid do not think it is impossible that Mbappe could end up renewing his contract and they consider the potential rise to prominence of his younger brother and team-mate Ethan, a 16-year-old midfielder, under Luis Enrique to be a move in this direction.
Madrid always believed there would eventually be a deterioration of relations between PSG and Mbappe. They have always felt the French club have given him more power than any one player should have. In fact, a phrase repeated at Madrid’s offices was, “To play here one day, Mbappe would have to become a football player again” — in the sense of the money and influence he could expect to have at the Bernabeu.
Mbappe scored as PSG lost 3-1 at Real Madrid in 2022 (Photo: Getty)
Is there anywhere else Mbappe could end up?
Well, anyone who comes in with a significant cash offer this summer could very quickly become relevant, but they would have to make Mbappe the highest-paid player in European football, which he already is at PSG, and probably also factor in the significant sign-on bonuses he would be in line for if he joined a club as a free agent next summer.
Liverpool have been linked with Mbappe in the past but there is no indication they can afford the required package. As we have seen all summer, the Saudi Pro League is prepared to spend almighty sums to tempt players to move there and PSG have had initial interest from a Saudi Arabian team in a deal for Mbappe, with the state-backed project prepared to pay a world-record fee this summer to extract him from Europe.
But PSG recognise, at this stage at least, that there is a limiting negotiating factor in the shape of Madrid as Mbappe has not demonstrated any inclination to go anywhere else but the Spanish capital. PSG also believe that Mbappe is in line for bonuses worth as much as €160million in the event he sees out his contract and then joins Madrid next summer.
One extraordinary option even being touted on Friday night involved the possibility that Saudi officials would consider a one-year deal (either a loan with a vast fee, or a single-year transfer) which would allow Mbappe a way out of PSG this season, allow PSG to recoup some money, and then allow the player to cash in as a free agent when joining Madrid in summer 2024, essentially enabling him to cash in three times over. But there is no suggestion at this stage the 24-year-old wants to exit European football.
How much would Mbappe be likely to cost this summer?
Much of this depends on whether Mbappe can be persuaded by PSG to go somewhere other than Real Madrid, as there may then be greater flexibility, or possibly some kind of authentic bidding war. As things stand, there is that initial interest from Saudi, but no real competitive tension because the player has said only that he wishes to move to the Bernabeu. What might happen, however, is that Mbappe’s experience at PSG becomes so exhausting and intolerable in the coming weeks that he applies pressure on Madrid to come to the table this summer, which would then allow PSG to claim a fee for the player.
PSG are not requesting all their money back for Mbappe but would look to get upwards of €100million for a player widely considered to be the best in Europe, if not the world.
Their very public admonishment of Mbappe appears designed to do two things: first, to convince him a whole year of this (the club are also prepared to put him on the bench when the season starts next month) would not be very appealing in the run-up to Euro 2024, while his reputation in France would also be undermined ahead of next summer’s Paris-hosted Olympic Games, in which he is expected to play; and second, to try to reel in potential bidders to rival Madrid.
If Mbappe does conclude that he cannot handle a whole year of this in Paris, he may ask Madrid to come to the table early, and if the Spaniards are for some reason slow or reluctant to do so, that could hypothetically open the market to other suitors. Meanwhile, Madrid will know that the closer they get to the end of this window on September 1, the weaker PSG’s hand becomes.
So what happens next?
The next key date in this saga is July 31 — a week on Monday. That is when the extension clause in Mbappe’s current contract expires. If it is not triggered, he would remain on course to leave PSG for no fee next summer.
The club have limited cards to play at this stage, other than to tighten the screws and increase the pressure on Mbappe. One of their major plays was to prevent Mbappe going on this tour. The next option at their disposal would be an extension of that, by making him sit on the bench.
Should the July 31 deadline pass without resolution, the next date of note will be Sunday, August 13 — when PSG face Lorient to kick off the new Ligue 1 season.
In the meantime, the big thing to watch will be how Mbappe and his entourage respond.
Even doing or saying nothing could have a big impact.
(Additional reporting: Mario Cortegana)
(Top photo: Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)
