The Harry Kane transfer story appears to be reaching a climax.
Bayern Munich’s latest offer to Tottenham Hotspur is worth £80million ($102.2m), plus add-ons, and they have told Spurs chairman Daniel Levy he has until midnight tonight (Friday) to respond.
The word ‘appears’ may be doing some heavy lifting here, because this is a tale that reached saga levels some time ago.
But after weeks of negotiations and with the start of a new Premier League season a week away, it certainly seems there is a reluctance from all parties for this to drag on much longer, even if that scenario cannot be ruled out entirely.
So, what are the latest developments as we understand them – and what are the possible outcomes?
Kane goes now
Bayern want Kane and Kane appears to want to move to Bayern. The talks wouldn’t have lasted this long if the striker hadn’t expressed a strong interest in joining the perennial German champions and it’s believed, as things stand, Kane doesn’t have an interest in entering negotiations to join any other club this summer.
But being interested in a potential transfer is one thing and negotiating with Spurs and Levy is quite another, particularly given the difficulty of settling on a fee for a player (just — by one week) the wrong side of 30 and with one year left on his contract, but also one who is clearly so important to Tottenham.
When representatives from the two clubs met in London on Monday, they were £25million apart in their valuations.
Bayern have lodged a bid of at least £80million, plus add-ons, but crucially have added a caveat of their latest offer having to be accepted by midnight.
Would Bayern really pull the plug if Levy doesn’t take their offer in the next few hours? There are still two weeks to go before the start of the Bundesliga season and they are in pole position to make a huge statement by signing England’s captain and record goalscorer — a player who would improve their chances of further success in the Champions League.
As far as personal terms go, The Athletic has previously reported that Bayern will offer Kane £25million all-in per season, the equivalent of £480,000 a week, which would more than double his current basic salary. So no issues there.
Last month, Bayern had a bid of around £60million, plus add-ons, rejected by Spurs.
Handing Levy an ultimatum is, given what we know of his negotiating style, unlikely to have generated a positive response, nor is it at all likely to have rattled him.
“He enjoys the argument in negotiating,” a football agent previously told The Athletic, reflecting on what Levy is like to deal with. “I swear, if I went back with a request for lower wages than what he was offering, he still would have argued.”
One associate joked that Levy “does not have blood in his veins” because of how matter-of-fact he remains through fraught negotiations.
In Bayern’s favour, though, is Kane’s contract situation.
Levy may not appreciate the aggressive approach from Bavaria, but if – and it’s a big if – Kane doesn’t sign a new Spurs contract, he can leave them as a free agent next summer, which right now feels like the worst-case scenario for the Premier League club, certainly from a financial perspective if not a footballing one.
Kane goes on a free next summer
If all this jostling, jockeying and poker-playing comes to nothing, Tottenham can surely still expect a motivated and committed Kane to give his all for the club in the final year of his contract.
He is said to be enjoying training under new head coach Ange Postecoglou, who will adopt a far more attacking and expansive style than predecessor Antonio Conte did over the previous couple of seasons.
Despite the tactics, Kane still managed 30 Premier League goals, his joint-best total in 11 seasons playing in the division, but he couldn’t lift a bedraggled team any higher than eighth in the final table. That means no European football for Spurs this season, which is likely to be a key factor in him now flirting with an exit from his boyhood club.
However, despite this ongoing saga, there is hope that with new additions including his England colleague James Maddison and the imminent signing of centre-back Micky van de Ven from Wolfsburg for around £43million, combined with a new approach from Postecoglou, Tottenham have reasons to be optimistic about the forthcoming campaign.
However, if Kane stays and doesn’t sign a new contract, you can guarantee that no day will pass between now and next summer without his future being discussed and speculated upon.
While Kane is only open to talking to Bayern in this window, he would have a long list of suitors in 2024. These could include Real Madrid, depending on the status of their pursuit of Kylian Mbappe, Paris Saint-Germain, who have sniffed around the Englishman this summer, other Premier League clubs and almost certainly interest Saudi Arabian ones, too.
Bayern could potentially miss out, or if they have sold the Munich dream to Kane properly, he could join them on a free transfer, saving them the best part of £100million.
That would see Spurs miss out on a huge windfall which could be reinvested in the squad, although their prospects of securing European qualification next season would be much improved if Kane, their talisman and record goalscorer, was still around.
Kane signs a new contract
This is currently the least likely scenario but one that cannot be ruled out, given how much Spurs means to Kane.
He may have become their record goalscorer last season, surpassing the late, great Jimmy Greaves, but he still has one sizeable, notable achievement left to tick off – winning a trophy with them.
He would also dearly love to beat Alan Shearer’s Premier League record of 260 goals. Kane is currently on 213 in the competition and if he maintains his scoring rate of the past two years, he can expect to overtake Shearer towards the end of the 2024-25 season.
“Alan has set the record. I’ll see if I can beat it,” Kane said in February. “I’ve got plenty of goals to come, I’m feeling good.”
He doesn’t have to be playing for Spurs to break that record, of course, but little would mean more to him than doing it in the shirt of the club he loves.
If he stayed at Spurs, broke Shearer’s record and also helped end the club’s current 15-year wait for a trophy, it would represent a fairytale finish to Kane’s career.
As for Bayern, if they fail in securing their major transfer target of the summer, it would be hugely embarrassing for executives Uli Hoeness and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge.
And the big winner in this dream scenario (apart from Kane)? Levy, of course.
Just the way he’d want it.
(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)