Take one of the most popular players in the NFL, add in arguably the most popular person on the planet, and what do you get?
Well, based on NFL betting numbers, you clearly get a “Swifties Effect.”
That’s right: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s current dalliance with Taylor Swift is having a massive impact on NFL player props.
Caesars Sports’ Adam Pullen and DraftKings Sportsbook’s Johnny Avello go inside the numbers since the Travis-Taylor connection went public.
Swift Reaction
First off, it’s worth noting that the Kelce-Swift impact stretches way beyond sports bettors. Pullen, Caesars’ assistant director of trading, learned that during the Sunday Night Football clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets.
“Is there a ‘Swifties Effect,’ you ask? My daughter is not a sports fan at all. But when I got home on Sunday night, she was watching the Chiefs-Jets game,” Pullen said.
Swift was in attendance at MetLife Stadium and was ever-present in cutaways during the NBC broadcast. Kelce had nine receptions for 60 yards — but no touchdowns, a significant setback for bettors — as Kansas City eked out a 23-20 victory.
Kelce prop bets took a massive amount of tickets and money at sportsbooks across the country, be it on player to score the first TD, anytime TD, Over/Under on receptions or receiving yards. In fact, action on Kelce props for the Chiefs-Jets matchup dwarfed that of the previous three weeks.
Swifties — the term commonly applied to Swift’s tens of millions of fans — are undoubtedly helping fuel that action.
“Absolutely, we’re seeing an increase in handle as far as Kelce props go. Last week alone (Chiefs vs. Jets), we took double the handle on what we had taken in Weeks 2 and 3 combined on props involving Kelce,” Pullen said.
Kelce sat out Week 1 against the Lions with a minor knee injury.
Adding Fuel to the Fire
Avello, director of sportsbook operations for DraftKings, doesn’t deny the “Swifties Effect.” But he noted you can’t overlook Kelce himself.
“First of all, you have to understand that Kelce is a popular choice in prop bets without Taylor Swift. He’s Patrick Mahomes’ go-to guy. Kelce is one of the most-bet guys to score the first touchdown/anytime touchdown every week,” Avello said. “Now, you throw Swift in the mix on Sunday night, an isolated game. That game had the biggest handle of any game this year in the NFL.
“So Kelce’s props are gonna be through the roof.”
Indeed, they were. DraftKings reported that Kelce props in the Chiefs-Jets game drew twice as much money as Kelce props in the first three games combined. And to clarify, DraftKings offered Kelce props in Week 1 and took typically good action — but not Swifties action — on those props, but the bets were refunded when Kelce was deemed out.
Also, by money wagered, the props of Kelce longest reception and anytime TD were the two most-bet player props in DraftKings’ NFL Week 4 odds market.
“Just being on Sunday Night Football against the Jets, with an enthusiastic viewership to watch that game, I think that had a lot do with the numbers being that huge,” Avello said. “But was there an added attraction with Taylor Swift? Yes. She’s a marketing machine, and she’s got a big following.
“The great part about this is maybe there are people watching football for the first time. She’s bringing a new audience to the NFL.”
And clearly bringing a new audience to NFL betting, as well.
Is Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift frenzy good for the NFL?
Taylor Tide Recedes, Then Rolls Back In
So what happens next, when the Chiefs visit the Minnesota Vikings in a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff? It’s not the Big Apple, and it’s not prime-time. And as of yet, Swift hasn’t committed to attending.
“I think Kelce will have more normal action this week,” Avello said.
However, in Week 6, Kelce and the Chiefs are again in prime-time, at home on Thursday Night Football against the division rival Denver Broncos.
“I would think the Thursday night game is going to be another big write,” Avello said. “That’s gonna be a huge game. And I think all the numbers we did with Kelce props on the Jets, I’m not sure we’ll reach those, but it’ll be close.”
And it’s worth noting the Chiefs are 2-0 with Swift in the stands, albeit against the Bears and the Jets.
“Chiefs fans gotta love it. When she’s there, the Chiefs win,” Avello said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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