Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 12 score projections, over/unders and more

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 11, which kicks off at 12:30 pm ET on Thanksgiving with the Packers at the Lions.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)

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Miami Dolphins -9.5 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Friday, 3 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle

• De’Von Achane returned in Week 10, but the rookie reinjured his knee on his third snap and was kept out for precautionary reasons. He’s expected to miss Friday’s game but, even if he goes, he’s obviously riskier than usual and would be best viewed as an RB2/flex. Mostert filled in for Achane with a season-high 23 touches Sunday and has 13 scores in 10 games. Mostert will be a solid RB2 option if Achane is sidelined, whereas Jeff Wilson Jr. would make for a deep-league flex option.

Over/Under: 35.2 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 80% (second highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -1
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave

• With Michael Thomas sidelined, Rashid Shaheed and A.T. Perry are both set for a boost in usage. Thomas went down on the second snap in the Saints’ most recent game (Week 10), and Perry filled in by playing on 84% of offensive snaps and posting a 2-38-1 receiving line on four targets. Shaheed, meanwhile, was held to just 24 yards but enjoyed a career-high nine targets. Shaheed is the better fantasy play of the two — he has three 18-plus-point outings this season — and is on the flex radar. Perry is too risky to use outside of DFS.

Over/Under: 40.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 60% (9th highest)

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase

• Not one of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Tee Higgins can be safely considered lineup locks this week. Johnson (33 yards on 11 targets in his past two games) and Pickens (under 10 fantasy points in four straight) have struggled as of late, though perhaps the firing of playcaller Matt Canada will inject some life into their fantasy stock. Higgins had a strong 8-110-0 showing in his most recent game (Week 9) but has missed two straight since then and, even if he’s able to return this week, no longer has Joe Burrow under center. All three receivers are best viewed as a WR3/flex options.

• Pat Freiermuth returned from injured reserve last week but was limited to 54% of offensive snaps and totaled only one target on 11 routes. Freiermuth has now fallen short of 10 yards in four out of five games, though he did find the end zone twice when healthy during Weeks 1-4. Freiermuth’s target volume is way down compared to 2022 (6.1 targets per game in 2022, 2.8 in 2023) and, while better days figure to be ahead, he can’t be trusted as a fantasy starter just yet.

Over/Under: 40.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 55% (14th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans -3.5
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins

• Carolina seems have settled on a near-even backfield split between Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Over the past two weeks, Hubbard holds an edge in snaps (56-50), carries (19-13) and routes (4-3), whereas Sanders leads in routes run (27-24). The duo has combined for two top-20 fantasy outings this season, and both make for weak flex options in the Panthers’ struggling offense.

Over/Under: 40.6 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Titans 76% (third highest)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin

• When we last saw the Colts (Week 10), Josh Downs was active but very limited, handling just three targets on 13 snaps (24%). Presumably closer to full health after the bye week, Downs is back on the flex radar for Week 12. Downs was averaging 7.0 targets and 12.4 fantasy points per game prior to his injury and has a great matchup against an injury-riddled Buccaneers defense that has allowed the most WR receiving yards and fourth-most WR fantasy points.

Over/Under: 43.9 (seventh highest)
Win Probability: Colts 56% (12th highest)

New England Patriots -3 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson

• Demario Douglas has emerged as the Patriots’ No. 1 wide receiver and has a terrific Week 12 matchup. The rookie hit career-high marks in targets (nine), receptions (six) and yardage (84) when we last saw him in Week 10 and now has exactly six touches in three straight outings. The struggling Giants defense has allowed the second-most WR fantasy points over both the past eight weeks and the past month. Douglas is a fine flex option.

Over/Under: 33.1 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 50% (16th highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram

• Trevor Lawrence was the top-scoring fantasy quarterback in Week 11, having produced four touchdowns (two rushing) in the win over Tennessee. Lawrence’s 32.2 fantasy points more than doubled his prior 2023 average of 13.7. Perhaps Lawrence is back on track, but considering his previous best weekly finish was at QB8 (Week 1), he remains no more than a fringe starting QB option in Week 12, even in a good matchup against Houston.

• Devin Singletary sits third in RB fantasy points over the past two weeks, having delivered 161 yards and a score on 31 touches in Week 10 and 118 yards and a touchdown on 24 touches in Week 11. The veteran back has played on 83% of snaps in this stretch and, while his Week 12 usage will depend on whether Dameon Pierce returns, Singletary was already taking control of this backfield and figures to remain atop the depth chart. Consider him a flex option if Pierce returns and a solid RB2 if he remains out. Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards and only three RB scores this season.

Over/Under: 45.8 (sixth highest)
Win Probability: Texans 68% (seventh highest)

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos -1.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, David Njoku

• This game features zero lineup locks at wide receiver — and tough matchups are the primary reason. Courtland Sutton has been a TD machine (eight in 10 games), but he’s outside the top 30 at the position in both targets and yardage. He and Jerry Jeudy (zero top-25 fantasy weeks) will take on a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points along with the fewest receptions. Amari Cooper, meanwhile, has a grand total of 50 yards on 15 targets in two Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts and is likely to draw shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II this week. Cooper and Sutton are on the WR3/flex radar, whereas Jeudy is best left on benches.

Over/Under: 36 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 53% (15th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals -1
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: James Conner, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

• Williams (ankle) is expected back from IR this week. The second-year back averaged 18.3 touches per game during Weeks 1-6, and his seven touchdowns during the span helped him to an average of 18.5 fantasy points per game (fourth best through Week 6). Williams figures to return to lead back duties immediately and, while he might not match his 84% snap share from earlier this season in his first game back, he might not be far off with Royce Freeman as his only competition for touches (Darrell Henderson Jr. is back on the practice squad). Williams is best valued as a midrange RB2 against an Arizona defense that has allowed 15 RB scores and the third-most RB fantasy points.

Over/Under: 43.7 (eighth highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 55% (13th highest)

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, Davante Adams, Travis Kelce

• Is Justin Watson the new No. 1 wide receiver in Kansas City? Watson’s 11 targets in Week 11 mark only the third occasion in which a Kansas City player had double-digit targets in a game this season (Travis Kelce had the other two). Watson was held to 53 yards on five catches but did find the end zone. Of course, the score was Watson’s first since Week 7 of last season, and he entered the game having averaged 3.1 targets and 5.0 fantasy points per game this season. Chiefs receivers remain best left on benches/waivers.

Over/Under: 34.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 69% (sixth highest)

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith, Dalton Kincaid

• You’d likely be hard-pressed to sit James Cook after back-to-back games with 100-plus yards, but he doesn’t quite make the “lineup lock” cutoff because of a very tough Week 12 matchup. The Eagles have allowed the fewest rushing yards, scrimmage yards and fantasy points to running backs this season. They’ve surrendered a total of two scores to the position, and the only back who reached 15 fantasy points against them was Breece Hall (whom the Eagles intentionally allowed to reach the end zone). Despite the downgrade, Cook remains a viable flex after he enjoyed 20 touches in Week 11 — his most since Week 2.

Over/Under: 52.4 (highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 58% (11th highest)

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Zay Flowers

• With Mark Andrews sidelined, Isaiah Likely is back on the fantasy radar. Last season, Likely totaled 12 targets and a pair of scores in two games in place of Andrews around midseason and added an 8-103-0 receiving line on 13 targets with starters resting in Week 18. With Andrews out in Week 1 earlier this season, Likely played on 71% of snaps but was held to one catch on his only target. When Andrews left last Thursday’s game, Likely played on 71% of snaps and finished second on the team with 26 routes run but was held without a catch on two targets. Baltimore is much better at wide receiver in 2023 than it was last season, so perhaps Likely won’t see more than a few targets. Of course, it’s possible he pushes for a half-dozen per game, which would place him in the TE1 discussion. Likely belongs on rosters, but he’s best left on benches this week.

• Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy and trending up. The veteran receiver has been held to snap shares of 33% and 30% over the past two weeks, which is a concern, but he also followed up scoring once in both Weeks 9 and 10 with a 116-yard effort on seven targets in Week 11. Beckham’s limited playing time makes him risky, but he has a great matchup this week against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-most WR yards and fantasy points. Consider him a fringe flex option.

Over/Under: 51.3 (second highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 66% (eighth highest)

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -3.5
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson

• Khalil Herbert returned from IR in Week 11 and led the Chicago backfield in snaps (31), carries (16), targets (3) and routes (9). Of course, that might not have been the outcome had D’Onta Foreman not left injured, as Foreman handled four of the team’s first five RB carries (and six of the first 11) prior to his departure. Herbert remains the top fantasy option from this backfield, but it seems as though Chicago will rely on a trio of options (including Roschon Johnson). None are safe fantasy starts, although Herbert will be a more appealing flex if Foreman is sidelined Monday night.

Over/Under: 41.8 (ninth highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 59% (10th highest)