DFS Week 18: Three WR/CB matchups to target and avoid | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections

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Most fantasy football leagues concluded after Week 17, so we are shifting the focus in this Week 18 “WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid” piece. Instead of examining only WR3 and flex-play options, we’ll turn to a wider range of players, including elite WR1s and matchup-based long-shots, ideally to construct a high-scoring DFS lineup.

WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CB Donte Jackson, Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans is the best bet to finish as Week 18 overall WR1. The Buccaneers head to Carolina for an early-game Sunday kickoff, bearing win-and-in NFL playoff implications. Evans’ prospects are enhanced by Carolina’s banged-up cornerback corps and quarterback Baker Mayfield’s contract bonus incentives. Evans’ 85.2 PFF receiving grade ranks eighth among 33 wide receivers with at least 500 receiving snaps. Mayfield’s 74.7 PFF passing grade ranks 18th among 32 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks.

FanDuel implies Tampa Bay will score 21.0 points.

Evans’ highly affordable $8,400 WR1 FanDuel salary is $1,600 below the positional maximum.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Tampa Bay a 3.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating.

Mayfield hopes to maintain his position among the top 32 NFL quarterbacks in quarterback rating, passing yards, passing touchdowns and yards per passing attempt, while increasing his completion rate.

QB Baker Mayfield (TB)

Needs to be top-10 in NFL or top-5 in NFC in QBR, passTD, passYD, Comp%, YPA for incentives per category. Current ranks (NFL, NFC):

QBR #9, #5
passTD T-#4, T-#4
passYD #8, #5
Comp% #18, #9
YPA #9, #6

TB plays a meaningful Week 18 for a playoff spot.

— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) January 1, 2024

Evans’ (6-foot-5, 231 pounds) downfield role, physicality and touchdown-scoring proclivity make him the ideal No. 1 target for Mayfield’s mission.

The table below ranks in parentheses Evans’ receiving data among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least 500 receiving snaps.

Evans runs routes lined up wide-left at a 46.8% plurality, followed by a 27.9% slot rate and a 25.3% wide-right rate.

Carolina No. 2 cornerback Donte Jackson and slot cornerback Troy Hill (pending NFL protocol clearance) project to face Evans on a combined majority of snaps. Oft-injured No. 1 cornerback Jaycee Horn (toe) ruled himself out following Week 17 pre-game warmups and kicked off Week 18 practice with a “limited participant” designation. Horn’s 77.2 PFF coverage grade ranks first among Carolina cornerbacks.

Jackson got banged up last week but avoided the Week 18 injury report.

Among 64 cornerbacks with at least 285 perimeter coverage snaps, the diminutive Jackson’s (5-foot-10, 180 pounds) 67.5 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for 31st. He ranks outside the top 40 in both catch rate allowed (63.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (1.24).

Among 32 cornerbacks with at least 185 slot coverage snaps, Hill’s 70.4 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 14th. He places 17th in catch rate allowed (71.1%) and 31st across the board in targeted rate (21.0%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.58) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.3%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Evans a good 70.7 receiving matchup advantage rating against the unit. He should be the Week 18 favorite to finish as the overall WR1.

WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Starling Thomas V, Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks remain playoff-eligible if they beat Arizona on the road. Wide receiver D.K. Metcalf has a winnable matchup against Arizona perimeter cornerback Starling Thomas V, who is bafflingly tasked with stopping the opposition’s primary downfield wide receiver. Among 32 wide receivers with at least 340 perimeter receiving snaps, Metcalf’s 84.0 PFF perimeter receiving grade ranks sixth. Among 86 cornerbacks with at least 185 perimeter coverage snaps, Thomas’ 41.0 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 84th.

The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 18’s second-highest game total. FanDuel implies Seattle will score 25.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Seattle a -5.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, but Arizona lost starting interior defender Jonathan Ledbetter to injured reserve last week and both starting interior defender Dante Stills (injury unknown) and the team’s highest-graded edge rusher Dennis Gardeck (78.3 PFF pass-rush grade, injury unknown) began Week 18 practice with “did not participate” designations.

Among 83 interior defenders with at least 215 pass-rushing snaps, Ledbetter’s 60.0 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 64th and Stills’ 53.8 mark ranks 77th.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Metcalf an excellent 97.9 receiving matchup advantage rating against Thomas. Metcalf’s $7,600 FanDuel salary is $2,400 short of the positional maximum, making him a fabulously affordable WR1.

Metcalf routinely rips off explosive plays in his field-stretching, high-volume role. Among qualifying perimeter wide receivers, he ranks 11th in target rate (22.0%), seventh in both yards per route run (2.35) and average depth of target (14.7) and tied for fourth in missed tackles forced receiving (11) and first in explosive pass plays (29).

Thomas is penning a case for the league’s worst cornerback title. Among qualifying cornerbacks, Thomas ranks second worst in yards allowed per coverage snap (2.07) and dead last in both targeted rate (22.0%) and catch rate allowed (80.5%).

Metcalf’s role is keyed by a team-best 26.6% first-read target rate (92 targets) and a moderately voluminous splash-zone role. The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Among 42 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash-zone targets, Metcalf ranks eighth in deep-target rate (35.3%), fifth in yards per reception (26.7) and second in yards after the catch per reception (11.4).

Arizona’s splash-zone coverage unit ranks 19th in expected points added allowed per play (0.588) and 26th in success rate allowed (61.5%).

Metcalf is a week-winning WR1 against Thomas.

WR Ronnie Bell, San Francisco 49ers vs. CB Tre Tomlinson, Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco plans to rest starters based on roster-size limitations, having clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Los Angeles appears willing to accept either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, having likewise announced six star players as inactive. FanDuel users and flex-needy re-draft managers should strongly consider 49ers explosive Day 3 rookie wide receiver Ronnie Bell, whose 63.5 PFF receiving grade ranks 14th among 33 NFL rookie wide receivers with at least 50 receiving snaps.

Bell’s primary competition for the de facto No. 1 role is No. 3 wide receiver Jauan Jennings, who spent Week 17 unable to practice in the NFL’s concussion protocol. The team would do well to rest him for a Super Bowl run, even if he clears the protocol.

Bell runs routes lined up on the perimeter at a 75.0% rate and 25.0% in the slot, providing him ample access to fellow Day 3 rookie cornerback Tre Tomlinson and veteran backup cornerback Duke Shelley. Tomlinson’s 38.6 PFF perimeter coverage grade and Shelley’s 45.5 mark rank 132nd and 123rd, respectively, among 135 cornerbacks with at least 25 perimeter coverage snaps.

Tomlinson’s coverage metrics are particularly welcoming, as he ranks 133rd across the board in catch rate allowed (83.3%), yards allowed per coverage snap (2.79) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.1%).

The Rams will also likely prioritize preserving safety Jordan Fuller’s health, helpfully reducing the defense’s splash-zone coverage. Among 31 safeties with at least 500 coverage snaps, Fuller’s 64.7 PFF coverage grade ties for 24th and his 1.1% explosive pass plays allowed rate ties for ninth.

Shanahan prioritizes Bell when the rookie is on the field. Seven of Bell’s eight targets have come via first-read play designs, and Bell thrives on splash-zone opportunities. Bell’s 11.75 yards per route run figure ranks 15th among 27 wide receivers to earn at least four splash-zone targets, and he has produced explosive pass plays on two of three such receptions.

Bell’s albeit limited splash-zone successes hint at significant Week 18 potential. Targeting this area of the field is a featured aspect of Shanahan’s passing game; the team’s 88 passes thrown into the splash zone rank third among NFL passing offenses, and the 49ers rank fifth and sixth in success rate (65.9%) and EPA per play (0.773), respectively.

Bell is an affordable DFS leverage option with his $4,800 FanDuel salary. He gets an exciting Week 18 opportunity to function as San Francisco’s primary pass catcher against Los Angeles’ backup coverage unit.

WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals vs. CB Cameron Mitchell, Cleveland Browns

Bengals slot receiver Tyler Boyd is scheduled to enter free agency this offseason. He gets a tough one-on-one matchup against Cleveland backup slot cornerback Cameron Mitchell in what may be Boyd’s final game as a Bengal. As detailed in “NFL Week 18 Game Environments to Target and Avoid,” the Browns are expected to rest starters with their mid-tier playoff seeding secure.

Boyd’s play fell off in his eighth career season this year. Cleveland conversely hit on Mitchell as a fifth-round 2023 NFL Draft pick. Boyd’s 62.9 PFF slot receiving grade ranks 19th among 33 receivers with at least 190 slot receiving snaps. Among 38 cornerbacks with at least 130 slot coverage snaps, Mitchell’s 65.2 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 21st. Boyd is a low-ceiling half-PPR WR5.

Cincinnati is a 6.0-point FanDuel home favorite, signaling a run-heavy game plan.

Weather forecasts project a 40-degree high with minimal precipitation for the Bengals’ Paycor Stadium.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cincinnati a -75.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 18’s worst by 17 percentage points. Among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 95 pressured dropbacks, Bengals quarterback Jake Browning’s 38.5 PFF pressured passing grade ranks 25th.

Boyd’s performance metrics barely place him inside the top 20, and the 6-foot-3, 203-pounder no longer offers much after the catch. Among qualifying slot receivers, Boyd ranks 18th or worse in target rate (14.5%), yards per route run (1.04), yards per reception (9.9) and explosive pass plays (six). His 3.7 yards after the catch per reception mark ranks 23rd.

Mitchell possesses the requisite size (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), speed (1.48-second 10-yard split) and talent to create problems for the 29-year-old Boyd. Among qualifying slot cornerbacks, Mitchell ranks ninth in catch rate allowed (64.7%), seventh in explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.5%), sixth in targeted rate (12.9%) and third in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.70).

Mitchell profiles as one of the best, young NFL cornerbacks who could soon force his way into a starting role.

Boyd is a low-ceiling half-PPR WR5.

WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers vs. CB Jaylen Watson, Kansas City Chiefs

First-round rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston now operates in a full-time role, but his dismal results and tough matchup render him a fade in Week 18. Johnston’s 61.0 PFF perimeter receiving grade ranks 55th among 63 wide receivers with at least 200 perimeter receiving snaps.

Chiefs No. 1 cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (calf strain) will again shadow de facto No. 1 wide receiver Joshua Palmer (NFL concussion protocol) if both players are active, leaving Johnston to run routes out wide (89.2% perimeter pre-snap alignment rate) against Kansas City’s elite Nos. 2 and 3 perimeter cornerbacks, Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams.

Palmer’s 68.0 PFF perimeter receiving grade ranks 43rd among qualifying wide receivers. Among 93 cornerbacks with at least 155 perimeter coverage snaps, Sneed (72.0 PFF perimeter coverage grade), Watson (58.6) and Williams (70.6) rank or tie for 24th, 60th and 32nd, respectively.

Among qualifying NFL cornerbacks, Watson ranks in the top 20 in catch rate (53.1%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.83) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.8%). Williams ranks 16th in catch rate allowed (53.3%) and in the top four in targeted rate (9.6%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.41) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.6%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Johnston a below-average 41.3 receiving matchup advantage rating against Watson.

Among qualifying NFL perimeter wide receivers, Johnston ranks outside the top 50 in both target rate (14.2%) and yards per route run (1.02) while ironically making the cut (No. 48) in catch rate (56.4%).

Johnston cannot be started in Week 18.

WR A.T. Perry, New Orleans Saints vs. CB Clark Phillips III, Atlanta Falcons

Day 3 rookie wide receiver A.T. Perry produced two WR3 finishes since joining the Saints’ starting lineup in Week 10. He cannot be trusted to finish inside Week 18’s top 36, though, as his impending shadow matchup against breakout Day 3 rookie perimeter cornerback Clark Phillips III makes him a low-ceiling WR5.

Perry’s 56.6 PFF receiving grade ranks 11th among 33 NFL rookie wide receivers with at least 50 receiving snaps. Phillips’ 56.8 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks 65th among 93 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 155 perimeter coverage snaps.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Perry a below-average 36.4 receiving matchup advantage rating against Phillips.

Perry has failed to earn more than two first-read targets in a game since Week 10, and his overall target-earning ability is proving highly erratic. Perry twice cleared an 18.0% target rate when lined up on the perimeter over his past seven games but finished a sub-8.0% clip in the remaining five. Among 93 wide receivers with at least 140 perimeter-receiving snaps, Perry’s 7.0% target rate ranks dead last and his 1.19 yards per route run mark ranks 65th. Perry’s 80.0% catch rate ranks second, and he’s created six explosive pass plays on just eight perimeter-route receptions.

Perry’s impressive hands and ability to generate explosive pass plays will earn him more opportunities, but he is not yet ready to handle a player of Phillips’ caliber.

Among qualifying cornerbacks, Phillips ranks in the top six in catch rate allowed (47.8%), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.67) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.6%).

Perry is a low-ceiling WR5.