Recent developments in Bangladesh’s defence strategy have caught the attention of both regional and global observers, particularly with the revelation that the country is increasing its imports of ammunition from Pakistan. This new procurement comes at a time when Bangladesh is facing internal political instability, especially following the departure of long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The significant rise in defence imports, specifically ammunition and explosives from Pakistan, signals a potential shift in Bangladesh’s military alliances and strategic interests, raising concerns in neighbouring India.
A Strategic Defence Agreement?
Bangladesh has traditionally maintained a neutral stance in regional geopolitics, balancing relationships between its more powerful neighbours, India and China. However, the defence materials set to be imported from Pakistan represent a substantial increase in military cooperation between the two countries. As reported previously in FinancialExpress.com, Bangladesh has ordered 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 2,000 units of tank ammunition, 40 tons of RDX explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles from Pakistan’s Ordinance Factories (POF). This is a notable escalation from the previous year’s order, which included 12,000 rounds of ammunition.
The shipments are expected to take place in three phases, with the first batch scheduled for delivery in early September 2024 and the final phase concluding by December 2024. The deal also reflects Bangladesh’s desire to strengthen its defence capabilities, particularly in light of internal instability and external pressures, especially from India and China.
Rising Concerns in India
The shift in Bangladesh’s defence procurement strategy has raised alarms in India, particularly given the historical tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. The growing defence ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan could be seen as a challenge to India’s influence in the region. India, which has enjoyed close diplomatic and economic relations with Bangladesh under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, now faces the prospect of a new administration in Dhaka that may be leaning towards strengthening ties with Pakistan.
This development has occurred against a backdrop of rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. The recent floods in Feni, where locals blamed India for releasing dam water from Tripura without notice, have only exacerbated tensions. Protests outside the Indian Visa Application Centre in Satkhira in late August further demonstrated the growing frustrations among Bangladeshi citizens. Hundreds of applicants took to the streets after long waits for visas, underscoring the strain in diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Implications for Regional Security
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s call for India’s military to analyze the coup in Bangladesh and its aftermath underlines the seriousness with which New Delhi is viewing these developments. In his address at the Joint Commanders Conference in Lucknow (Sept 5, 2024), Singh cited the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel as examples of the unpredictable nature of global conflicts. He underlined the need for India’s armed forces to be forward-thinking and ready to address future challenges, including those posed by the shifting dynamics in Bangladesh.
Singh also expressed concerns over the northern border with China, stressing the importance of maintaining peace in the region. However, he reiterated that India must remain prepared for any eventuality, as neighbouring countries’ instability poses challenges to regional peace. The Defence Minister’s focus on strengthening India’s national security apparatus, including its capabilities in space, cyber, and electronic warfare, reflects the broader strategic vision for countering emerging threats in the region.
Pakistan’s Role and Broader Implications
Pakistan’s increasing defence exports to Bangladesh come at a time when Islamabad is seeking to expand its influence in South Asia. Despite its internal challenges, Pakistan continues to position itself as a key player in regional geopolitics. Its growing military relationship with Bangladesh could be seen as part of a broader strategy to counterbalance India’s influence in the region.
The letter from the General Manager of POF outlining supplementary defence exports to Bangladesh adds further evidence of this strategic shift. It reveals that the new leadership in Bangladesh is open to defence deals with Pakistan, a move that could have lasting implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape.