For as long as humans have suffered at the hands of the storms they have dreamed of controlling the weather. The United States, like all great empires lost to hubris, has long sought to manipulate the skies to its own ends. A new Federal report has revealed America sucks at it.
The report comes from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a nonpartisan watchdog group that investigates the U.S. government. It’s narrowly focused on “cloud seeding,” the practice of adding silver iodide crystals to clouds to make them bust and give up that sweet sweet rain. As droughts hit the western states on a routine basis, many local governments are attempting to use cloud seeding to bring the rains.
It’s not working well. The GAO conceded there’s some validity to cloud seeding, but that it’s almost impossible to measure its effectiveness. “Cloud seeding may increase water availability and result in economic, environmental, and human health benefits. In the studies GAO reviewed, estimates of the additional precipitation ranged from 0 to 20 percent,” the report said. “However, it is difficult to evaluate the effects of cloud seeding due to limitations of effectiveness research.”
The idea of seeding clouds with something to make them rain started in the late 19th century but wasn’t studied and perfected until after World War II. “Scientists demonstrated the basis of cloud seeding in the 1940s when they observed in the laboratory that water present in clouds could be artificially induced to create ice crystals using dry ice or silver iodide crystals,” the GAO said in its report. “Extensive federal funding of research and development, including field experimentation, followed this discovery. For example, in fiscal year 1978, total federal funding for weather modification was approximately $68 million, in 2024 dollars.”
Scientists could never quite prove it worked. Or, if it did, how effective the seeding was. In the 1980s, the federal government slashed cloud seeding funds. These days, most cloud seeding schemes are local affairs. According to the GAO, nine states (California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming) are seeding the clouds.
Methods and specifics of seeding differ greatly between countries and even states. It can be done from an aircraft flying above or through a cloud system, or from a large cannon on the ground that pumps particulates into the air. It’s often done with silver iodide, but sodium chloride, dry ice, liquid propane, and other salts are used too.
The GAO report is a list of the limitations of the tech. Utah alone is dumping $12 million a year into seeding the clouds without too much to show for it. It’s hard to estimate how much it would have rained without cloud seeding, so there’s not a great way to make a control group for any study. It’s also hard to know how much the seeding affected rainfall in a specific area. Many previous studies of seed-based rainfall showed results that weren’t statistically significant.
“While one study found an average increase in precipitation of 3 percent across 118 randomized cases, this effect was not statistically distinguishable from zero,” the GAO said. “One study reported an average precipitation increase of 3 percent between 1977 and 2018 across nine cases, but the statistical results could not conclusively determine an effect from cloud seeding in seven of the cases.”
The GAO also noted that no one knows what pumping silver iodine crystals and other particulates into the clouds to generate rain does to flora and fauna on the ground. More water in dry areas is, generally, better. But changing the water levels in delicate and complicated ecosystems can have unintended consequences. “One stakeholder said it is not clear if cloud seeding could improve fish outcomes through higher water levels and lower water temperatures, and it is uncertain how increased soil moisture from cloud seeding might translate into healthier, less dry forests with reduced susceptibility to wildfires.”
Silver iodine appears non-toxic in small doses, but the science is far from settled. “Silver iodide is nearly insoluble in water,” the report said. “However, when it dissolves it releases a small number of silver ions. In high enough quantities, silver ions—a known antimicrobial substance—could have harmful effects on beneficial bacteria in the environment and water resources.”
The GAO also called out another problem with cloud seeding programs: conspiracy theories. Government weather control has long been a feature of conspiracy theories. It’s a popular topic for Alex Jones and gained prominence this year after Georgia GOP rep Marjorie Taylor Greene spread it around following Hurricane Helene.
This has led some lawmakers to view cloud seeding as a threat. Tennessee lawmakers passed a bill in April that banned all forms of cloud seeding in the state. In interviews with media, the Tennessee lawmakers said they’d taken the action to prevent chemtrails in the skies. A ban on cloud seeding will do nothing to prevent chemtrails, which are just the plumes of condensation and exhaust aircraft leave in their wake.
