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Bill Connelly
Liverpool lead the Premier League by 15 points, and the odds of a good relegation fight are fading. The Bundesliga is almost certainly back in Bayern Munich‘s control — the German giants lead by eight points with nine matches remaining. PSG is up 16 points in France and seems to be picking up steam. As we enter the home stretch of European soccer’s 2024-25 campaign, a few races are already just about settled.
In addition to a potentially fantastic set of Champions League quarterfinals, however, we still have plenty of domestic races to track. Spain‘s three heavyweights are battling it out in a nip-and-tuck title scrap that has already featured a ton of plot twists. Inter Milan, Napoli and Atalanta are separated by only three points in the race for Serie A‘s scudetto. The battle for a top-five spot in the Premier League or top-four in the Bundesliga are very much up in the air. And don’t forget Austria and Belgium! We could see something wild there.
Indeed, the most exciting months of the season are approaching. Here are the 10 most interesting races to follow in the coming weeks, the top two of which feature enormous upcoming matches this Sunday (Barcelona at Atletico Madrid, Atalanta at Inter Milan).
1. LaLiga title race
1:18
Can Lamine Yamal propel Barcelona to Champions League glory?
Stewart Robson thinks Barcelona are the most exciting team to watch in the Champions league and heaps praise on Lamine Yamal.
The most interesting race in Europe has already played out in three acts.
Through Nov. 3:
1. Barcelona — 12 games, 33 points, +29 goal differential
2. Real Madrid — 11 games, 24 points, +10 GD
3. Atletico Madrid — 12 games, 23 points, +11 GD
From Nov. 4 to Jan. 25:
1. Real Madrid — 10 games, 25 points, +20 GD
2. Atletico Madrid — 9 games, 22 points, +10 GD
T19. Barcelona — 8 games, 6 points, +0 GD
Since Jan. 25:
1. Barcelona — 6 games, 18 points, +17 GD
T4. Atletico Madrid — 7 games, 12 points, +5 GD
T6. Real Madrid — 7 games, 11 points, +4 GD
Add all that up, and you’ve got Barcelona tied with Real Madrid and one point ahead of Atletico Madrid with a game in hand.
Barca have been the best team in the league by far for about two-thirds of the season to date, but they were so shaky from November to January that they gave away any and all gains. They’re on a 17-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, and they responded to a frustrating 4-4 Copa del Rey draw with Atletico Madrid by outscoring Real Sociedad (in league play) and Benfica (in two Champions League matches) by a combined 8-1 over three matches.
Barca are in form, Atletico (three wins in eight matches in all comps) are shaky, and Real Madrid keep bouncing back and forth between mediocre (two wins in six league matches) and brilliant (19 goals in a six-match Champions League winning streak). Oh yeah, and Atleti and Real Madrid are absolutely exhausted after Wednesday’s Champions League thriller.
(Adjusted goal differential, as seen in the chart above, is a mix of 70% xG differential and 30% goal differential. It is a more predictive measure of quality than pure goal differential or points per game.)
Opta currently gives Barca a 61% chance of winning the title, with Real Madrid at 27% and Atleti at 12%. Barca do have a game in hand and will host Real Madrid the weekend of May 11, but they also still have to play the teams currently second, third (Atletico), fourth (Athletic Club), fifth (Villarreal), sixth (Real Betis) and seventh (Mallorca) in the LaLiga table. Three of those four opponents show up on the schedule over the final four matchdays, which will create some pressure on Barca to put this race away before May.
With their attacking brilliance and an absurdly high defensive line that has created both dominance and occasional slapstick, Barca are mostly excellent but occasionally glitchy. And it won’t take too many glitches to take this race all the way down to the wire.
Key upcoming matches: Barcelona at Atletico Madrid (Sunday), Real Madrid at Barcelona (weekend of May 11)
2. Serie A title race
1:16
Who’s favourite to advance when Bayern face Inter?
Ale Moreno previews the Champions League quarterfinal matchup between Bayern Munich and Inter.
That Inter currently leads Serie A makes perfect sense. The defending champions still have Simone Inzaghi as manager, they still have Lautaro Martínez up front, and at the moment they’re the fourth-best team in the world per Opta’s power ratings, which give them a 63% chance of winning the Scudetto. They’ve advanced comfortably into the Champions League quarterfinals, too, losing only one of 10 matches in the competition, beating Arsenal, drawing with Manchester City and easily dispatching Feyenoord in the round of 16.
That they can’t shake Napoli in league play, however, is a bit of a surprise, as Napoli have not exactly had a stellar season, personnel-wise. They could neither reach an accord with or find a proper transfer destination for star forward Victor Osimhen, so they loaned him to Galatasaray. They lost Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to PSG in January — thereby turning PSG into maybe the best team in Europe at the moment — and didn’t really try to replace him. They spent €30 million in transfer fees … on Manchester United‘s plodding midfielder, Scott McTominay.
Napoli have only one player with more than six league goals or four league assists: Romelu Lukaku. And yet, here they are, one point away from first place and facing a remaining schedule that features only two opponents in the top half of the table (AC Milan and Bologna, both right after the coming international break). Such is the power of Antonio Conte. He doesn’t need name brands or attackers; he only needs the proper pieces for his 3-5-2.
Actually, he doesn’t even need that. He’s basically operated with four at the back this season to get the most out of players like rightback Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and he’s created a shockingly good midfield tandem with McTominay, Frank Anguissa and Stanislav Lobotka. They were the superior team in a recent 1-1 draw with Inter, but the result kept them a point behind.
Conte has won four Scudettos over the past 13 years, and if he wins a fifth it might be his most impressive coaching performance yet. But to do it, they’ll have to catch Inter while fending off an Atalanta team that is in form on paper, but has dropped quite a few points of late.
Key upcoming matches: Inter at Atalanta (Sunday), AC Milan at Napoli (weekend of March 30)
3. Premier League top five
1:06
How 11 English teams can play in Europe next season
Take a look at how a staggering 11 English teams could potentially play in Europe’s top three competitions next season.
According to the most recent Opta projections, the Premier League has performed well enough in UEFA competitions this year that it currently has a greater than 99% chance of landing a fifth team in next year’s Champions League. Considering last year’s disappointment — when the bonus slots went to Italy and Germany — and considering the general malaise with which the Premier League’s recent ruler, Manchester City, have played, that’s impressive. And it sets up one hell of a stretch run.
First-place Liverpool are obviously claiming one of those five spots, and Arsenal are nine points clear of sixth. They’re safe. But that leaves three other spots for a pretty large cluster of teams:
3. Nottingham Forest: 51 points, +12 goal differential, 28 games played
4. Chelsea: 49 points, +17 GD, 28 GP
5. Manchester City: 47 points, +15 GD, 28 GP
6. Newcastle United: 47 points, +9 GD, 28 GP
7. Brighton: 46 points, +6 GD, 28 GP
8. Aston Villa: 45 points, -4 GD, 29 GP
9. Bournemouth: 44 points, +13 GD, 28 GP
That’s seven teams (nine, including Liverpool and Arsenal) within three points of a Champions League spot — and it’s a delightful mix of upstarts and financial powerhouses. While we won’t focus on 10th-place Fulham, they’re technically only five points out, too!
It’s also worth noting that these teams have varied pretty dramatically in terms of recent form.
Opta’s power ratings continue to give Manchester City the benefit of the doubt, giving them an 82% chance of finishing in the top five, but Forest’s recent win over City put them at 73%, and Chelsea (56%) and Newcastle (51%) have coin-toss odds. Brighton are suddenly one of the league’s hottest teams again and have climbed back to 17%, while Bournemouth (15%) and Villa (6%) aren’t done yet.
Because so many teams are involved, we’re guaranteed big matches almost weekly the rest of the way, starting with Brighton vs. Man City and Chelsea vs. Arsenal this weekend, and ending with five potentially big matches in the final two weekends of the season.
Key upcoming matches: Brighton at Manchester City (March 15), Chelsea at Arsenal (March 16), Aston Villa at Brighton (April 1), Nottingham Forest at Villa (April 5), Chelsea at Fulham (April 19), Newcastle at Aston Villa (April 19)
4. Bundesliga top four
2:16
Has Xabi Alonso’s stock dipped with Leverkusen’s drop off?
Ale Moreno wonders if Xabi Alonso made a mistake in sticking with Bayer Leverkusen, instead of moving to a bigger club in the summer.
After claiming a fifth Champions League spot last year, the Bundesliga has disappointed in 2024-25 and will be stuck with four next season. But from a drama standpoint, four is just right. League leader Bayern Munich and second-place Bayer Leverkusen are safe, but the two other spots could go to any number of medium-sized upstarts or disappointing power clubs.
There are spots for the taking for any team that wants them, and since only one of the current top 10 teams in the table actually won last weekend, it’s unclear who wants them.
3. Mainz 05: 44 points, +16 GD
4. Eintracht Frankfurt: 42 points, +12 GD
5. Freiburg: 41 points, -2 GD
6. RB Leipzig: 39 points, +6 GD
7. Wolfsburg: 38 points, +10 GD
8. Stuttgart: 37 points, +5 GD
9. Borussia Monchengladbach: 37 points, +1 GD
10. Borussia Dortmund: 35 points, +6 GD
Both RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund have been terribly disappointing in 2024-25 while Eintracht Frankfurt have collapsed of late, winning only one of their last seven league matches to fall from seven points clear of fifth place to only one point clear. Letting a key attacker (Omar Marmoush) leave (to Manchester City) hasn’t worked out nearly as well for Eintracht as it somehow has for Napoli with “Kvaradona.”
Mainz, meanwhile, have won four straight to shoot all the way into third place. They have a tough remaining road to hoe — of nine remaining matches, six are against teams with top-four ambitions — but they’ve built a slight cushion at this point, and none of the teams directly beneath them are smoking hot at the moment.
At this point, there are basically three contenders for the two spots: Mainz (69% chance of qualifying, per Opta), Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) and Someone Else (74%). That could be Freiburg (23%) or RB Leipzig (21%), or it could be a longer shot that catches fire, be it Stuttgart (13%), Wolfsburg (11%), Borussia Dortmund (4%) or Borussia Monchengladbach (2%). Hell, Augsburg and Werder Bremen are still at 0.7%, too.
That’s two-thirds of the league with at least a miracle’s chance, and for as disappointing as BVB have been in 2024-25, their hopes aren’t done yet. They might be with a Saturday loss to RB Leipzig, though.
Key upcoming matches: Borussia Dortmund at RB Leipzig (March 15), Freiburg at Mainz (March 15), Bayer Leverkusen at Stuttgart (March 16), Stuttgart at Eintracht Frankfurt (March 29), RB Leipzig at Borussia Monchengladbach (March 29), Mainz at Borussia Dortmund (March 30), Borussia Dortmund at Freiburg (April 5), RB Leipzig at Wolfsburg (April 12)
5. Promotion from the 2. Bundesliga
We’re not looking at many amazing relegation scraps this year, especially in the Premier League, but for two other leagues, the fight for promotion from the second division has been utterly incredible in 2024-25. For both the tension of the race and the names involved, nothing beats the 2. Bundesliga at the moment.
The top two finishers in the 2. Bundesliga get automatically promoted, while the third-place team faces the third-lowest Bundesliga team in a two-legged playoff for the final spot in the league. With nine matchdays remaining, half the second division is still within five points of the top three, and no one is even slightly safe.
1. Hamburg: 45 points, +23 GD
2. Koln: 44 points, +8 GD
3. Kaiserslautern: 43 points, +8 GD
4. Magdeburg: 42 points, +15 GD
5. Paderborn: 42 points, +10 GD
6. Elversberg: 40 points, +14 GD
7. Hannover: 39 points, +7 GD
8. Nurnberg: 38 points, +4 GD
9. Fortuna Dusseldorf: 38 points, +4 GD
Among these nine teams are four pretty big brands with big stadiums (Hamburg, Koln, Kaiserslautern and Dusseldorf). Koln are looking for an immediate rebound after last season’s relegation, but Dusseldorf is in its fifth straight season in the second division, Hamburg — a one-time European champion — are in their seventh straight, and Kaiserslautern, twice a Bundesliga champion in the 1990s, haven’t been in the top division since 2012. In fact, they recently spent four seasons in the third tier.
While two other big brands (11th-place Schalke and 14th-place Hertha Berlin) are out of the running — Hertha are actually only three points above the relegation zone — the Bundesliga could still luck its way into welcoming three big clubs back into the top division, or it could welcome a pair of incredible underdogs.
Magdeburg were first-division stalwarts in the days of East Germany — they beat AC Milan to win the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup in 1974 — but fell as low as the fifth division in the post-reunification 1990s before finally stabilizing in recent years. They are an intriguing underdog story, but they pale in comparison to SV Elversberg, a club from a town of 13,000 that didn’t even play their first season in the second division until 2023-24 and are, in just their second year at this level, a mere three points out of third place.
Key upcoming matches: Hamburg at Magdeburg (March 14), Kaiserslautern at Paderborn (March 15), Elversberg at Hamburg (March 28), Dusseldorf at Kaiserslautern (March 29), Magdeburg at Hannover 96 (March 29), Koln at Paderborn (March 29), Hamburg at Nurnberg (April 5), Kaiserslautern at Magdeburg (April 5), Nurnberg at Kaiserslautern (April 12), Dusseldorf at Paderborn (April 12), Elversberg at Hannover 96 (April 12)
6. Promotion from LaLiga2
Spain’s Segunda Division is set up like the English Championship: The top two finishers earn automatic promotion, while the teams that finish third through sixth fight it out for the last spot in a promotion playoff. The talent is pretty evenly distributed here: Nine of 22 teams are still within six points of the relegation zone, and eight are within four points of a shot at promotion.
1. Mirandes: 54 points, +16 GD
2. Racing Santander: 53 points, +13 GD
3. Elche: 53 points, +16 GD
4. Levante UD: 53 points, +17 GD
5. Huesca: 51 points, +16 GD
6. Real Oviedo: 50 points, +6 GD
7. Almeria: 47 points, +10 GD
8. Granada: 46 points, +9 GD
The current leader is a surprise. CD Mirandes are from the city of Miranda de Ebro. Population: “35,000. They had never played in Spain’s second division until the 2010s, and they’ve never really sniffed a shot at playing in LaLiga. But they’ve lost just one of their last six league matches, and they’ve taken the slightest of leads in the table.
CD Mirandes have a pretty light remaining schedule, facing only two other teams in the current top eight, but they’re up against a number of recent yo-yo clubs — clubs that go up and down, and up and down … get it? — with lots of promotion experience: Over the last 20 years, Elche, Levante, Granda, Almeria and Huesca have spent a combined 39 years in the top division, over half of which have come from Levante and Granada.
The two other primary contenders have seen top-division action in the 2000s, at least. Former Arsenal star Santi Cazorla is trying to bring hometown club Real Oviedo back to LaLiga for the first time since 2001.
Key upcoming matches: Elche at Real Oviedo (March 14), Levante at Huesca (March 16), Racing Santander at Mirandes (March 22), Real Oviedo at Granada (March 22), Levante at Almeria (March 29), Racing Santander at Levante (April 6), Almeria at Granada (April 6)
1:13
How PSG have become stronger contenders without Kylian Mbappe
Ale Moreno says the departure of Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid has enabled Luis Enrique to turn PSG into a stronger team overall.
Since adding Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in January and watching Ousmane Dembélé suddenly become the best player in the world — the 27-year old has scored 23 goals in his last 18 matches, and 16 in his last 12 — PSG have become maybe the best team in the world. They’ve certainly been the best team in France all season (and for most of the last decade), having opened up a 16-point lead on the field with nine matches remaining.
Nothing else in Ligue 1 is particularly clear, though. France now gets three automatic spots in the Champions League’s 36-team field, and the fourth-place team gets a spot in the qualification rounds as well. Right now, six teams have legitimate shots at a top-four finish while a seventh team still has a puncher’s chance.
2. Marseille: 49 points, +22 GD
3. Nice: 46 points, +19 GD
4. Monaco: 44 points, +17 GD
5. Lille: 44 points, +13 GD
6. Lyon: 42 points, +15 GD
7. Strasbourg: 40 points, +7 GD
Marseille, Nice and Monaco have been the strongest non-PSG teams of late, but they all dropped points last weekend, while the other teams above all won. That cluttered an already tight race. Opta’s power ratings still think Marseille (87% chance of finishing in the top four) is in good shape overall, but Lille (60%), Monaco (59%), Nice (51%) and Lyon (39%) all have close to coin-toss odds.
Strasbourg (4%), owned by Chelsea’s BlueCo, isn’t completely out of the running yet either. They haven’t played in the Champions League/European Cup since their quarterfinal run in 1979-80, and they were in 13th place in early December. But they’ve been the second-best team in the league since.
Key upcoming matches: Marseille at PSG (March 16), Lyon at Strasbourg (March 28), Nice at Monaco (March 29), Lille at Lyon (April 6), Marseille at Monaco (April 13), Nice at Strasbourg (April 13), Strasbourg at Monaco (April 20)
8. LaLiga relegation
For the best chance at a wild relegation scrap, we return to Spain, where Real Valladolid are all but assured of going down, but the other two unwanted spots are very much up for grabs.
20. Real Valladolid: 16 points, -44 GD
19. Las Palmas: 24 points, -15 GD
18. Deportivo Alaves: 26 points, -10 GD
17. Leganes: 27 points, -16 GD
16. Valencia: 27 points, -15 GD
15. Espanyol: 28 points, -12 GD
Valladolid aside, that’s five teams separated by four points, and two are going down. Opta’s power ratings think Las Palmas (69% chance of relegation) is in particular trouble, but the other likely candidate is unclear. Leganes (41%), Alaves (38%), Espanyol (27%) and Valencia (22%) all have quite a bit of work to do.
Valencia, a mainstay in European competitions throughout the 2010s, remain in danger, but they’ve rallied. As late as Jan. 18, they were in the bottom of the table, two points behind Real Valladolid. They had won only two of their first 19 league matches. But they’ve since won four of eight, taking relegation six-pointers against both Leganes and Real Valladolid. They’re still painfully flawed — losing recent matches against title contenders Barca and Atletico by a combined 10-1 — but they just have to be better than the worst teams.
Key upcoming matches: Deportivo Alaves at Las Palmas (March 14), Espanyol at Valencia (April 23). In the coming weeks, a lot of these teams are playing mostly safe and good squads. Any points they can steal will be valuable
9. Promotion from the English Championship
It’s almost* unfair to the Championship’s best teams that the third- through sixth-place teams will qualify for the promotion playoff this year. Four teams have very much stood out in this competition to date, but two others will eke out a shot and if history is any indication, one of them will steal a spot in the Premier League, too.
(*I’m saying almost because, the Premier League’s mammoth parachute payments being what they are, recent Premier League teams already have somewhat unfair advantages in the second division. The top three teams in the Championship have all spent recent seasons in the top division, and they’ve combined for 67 league wins and only 12 losses. Giving more teams a shot at promotion is the least England could do.)
1. Leeds United: 37 games, 79 points, +51 GD
2. Sheffield United: 37 games, 77 points, +24 GD
3. Burnley: 37 games, 75 points, +39 GD
4. Sunderland: 37 games, 69 points, +21 GD
5. West Brom: 37 games, 56 points, +14 GD
6. Coventry City: 37 games, 56 points, +4 GD
7. Bristol City: 37 games, 54 points, +7 GD
8. Middlesbrough: 37 games, 53 points, +9 GD
9. Blackburn Rovers: 37 games, 52 points, +3 GD
10. Sheffield Wednesday: 37 games, 51 points, -5 GD
Including Sunderland, which last played in the Premier League in 2016-17, the top four teams have been head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, but only two will earn automatic promotion. Meanwhile, 10 teams are still within six points of the playoff. This league is somehow almost elitist and egalitarian at the same time. Regardless, we should see a mad home stretch, with Sheffield United, Leeds and Burnley all battling for automatic promotion and six teams — including Coventry City (last top-division season: 2001), Sheffield Wednesday (2000) and Bristol City (1980!) — jostling for those last two playoff slots.
Key upcoming matches: Sunderland at Coventry City (March 15), Sheffield United at Sheffield Wednesday (March 16), Coventry City at Sheffield United (March 29), Burnley at Coventry City (April 5), Sunderland at West Brom (April 5), Middlesbrough at Blackburn (April 5), West Brom at Bristol City (April 8), Sheffield Wednesday at Blackburn (April 8)
10T. Austrian Bundesliga and Belgian Pro League titles
For a lot of the leagues outside of Europe’s Big Five, we don’t have much to work with in terms of title races. Ajax charged past PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands and leads by eight points with nine matches remaining; we’ve got a scrap between Sporting CP (59 points) and Benfica (56) in Portugal, but everyone else is at least nine points back; Galatasaray (up seven points in Turkey), Slavia Prague (up 10 in the Czech Republic), Celtic (up 16 in Scotland) and Red Star Belgrade (up 21 in Serbia) are all somewhere between comfortable and rolling. But thanks to both solid competition and a drama-friendly title format, we should still have some fun in Austria and Belgium.
In both countries, a championship playoff follows the round-robin competition. After the round robin is complete, six teams advance to a playoff in which everyone’s points are cut in half and everyone plays another round robin.
With one match to go in Austria, Austria Wien and defending champion Sturm Graz are tied at 43 (21 in a playoff) with Wolfsberger AC (36, or 18) and fallen heavyweight RB Salzburg (35, or 17) not far behind. All four will enter a playoff with semi-realistic title hopes.
In Belgium, where we almost always get drama, we should get even more. Last year’s championship playoff was decided by one point, and the year before came down to tiebreakers. With 65 points (33 in a playoff), Genk has opened up a solid lead at the moment, but when points are cut in half, Club Brugge (56, or 28) and Union Saint-Gilloise (55, or 28) will be back within shouting distance.
Union Saint-Gilloise has suffered steady heartbreak in recent seasons and began this season poorly, but has won nine of its last 10 league matches to charge back up the table and finishes the regular season with a chance to cut into Genk’s lead. There’s a chance that Genk runs away with things here, but that would go against the general Belgian Pro League aesthetic.
Expect chaos.
Key upcoming matches: Union Saint-Gilloise at Genk (March 16), Wolfsberger AC at RB Salzburg (March 16)
