Nintendo Will Dominate Switch 2 Launch With Its Focus on Players

The Nintendo Switch 2 is going to be a big launch. We can estimate that based on hype alone, but wondering how big the launch will be is asking the wrong question. The main consideration with the Switch 2 is if the entire games industry will finally learn the right lesson from Nintendo’s success.

Nintendo is holding off detailing the Switch 2’s full capabilities and its release window until April 2 (not even a whiff of “2” at today’s Nintendo Direct). On release date, the legacy Japanese gamemaker will have shown the industry what it’s been missing these last few, tumultuous years wracked by studio closures, layoffs, and cancelled games. It’s all about keeping things fun for the players, not obsessing over obscene graphical capabilities of every new console.

“The Switch 2 will do well, but it is the answer to a lot of Nintendo’s existing issues as well as the video game industry’s issues overall,” Joost van Dreunen, a longtime games market researcher and professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told Gizmodo in a phone interview. While the other major players in games, especially Sony and Microsoft, try to entice consumers with more-capable processors and components, “Nintendo doesn’t play that game at all,” van Dreunen said.

The industry expert said that doesn’t necessarily mean Nintendo will sell as many Switch 2 units as it did the original Switch at launch, but it will likely sell enough. A sentiment backed by Japan-based analyst Serkan Toto who told Bloomberg Nintendo will sell “boatloads” of Switch 2s in the first month of sale. Nintendo sold a total of 150 million Switch consoles over its 8-year lifespan, according to Nintendo’s February earnings report.

The Switch 2 just needs to justify itself as an upgrade for Switch owners, one that shows off Nintendo’s reputation for being the “fun, weird, and wonky” console-maker. All Nintendo has to do is promise moderate upgrades such as 4K capabilities—perhaps with the help of AI upscaling—and players may already perceive it as the boost the aging Switch hardware needed.

But there is one thing that could get in the way. The price. Rumors suggest the Switch 2 could cost $400, $100 more than the Switch at launch and $50 more than the Switch OLED. That’s still $100 less than the PlayStation 5 ($300 less than the PS5 Pro) or Xbox Series X. But Nintendo can’t afford to go much higher in price. Van Dreunen suggested the sequel Switch may be in trouble if it edges too close to $500 as Nintendo’s target audience skews toward those without deep pockets.

Particularly because its competitor isn’t the Steam and Windows handhelds that resemble it. The Steam Deck OLED starts at $550 and comes with the promise of playing most of your PC’s Steam library on the go. PC gamers on the whole have more cash to burn than Switch buyers, and they can end up with both devices in their living rooms, van Dreunen said.

Research from analyst firm IDC commissioned by The Verge shows that all handheld PCs makers combined have sold close to 6 million units over the past three years. Some analysts expect Nintendo to hit that number in a third of that time. Japanese video game industry analyst Robin Zhu of UBS told Bloomberg that Nintendo may have a total inventory of 6 to 8 million new handheld consoles at release.

The Switch 2 has been cooking for so long, Nintendo should have had time to prepare for this moment. The last big gaming hardware launch, Nvidia’s RTX 50-series GPU launch, has been a disaster for several reasons, mostly due to fact you can’t buy one for anywhere close to the suggested retail price. Compared to Nvidia, Nintendo has openly talked about plans for having enough stock for launch. On two separate occasions, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa told investors that the company’s plans to beat scalpers was to have enough supply for anybody who wants a Switch 2 to buy one.

And while the entire tech industry is shaking in its boost over the threat of Trump tariffs its unclear how it might affect the Switch 2 launch. Some companies have already raised prices, while others have delayed big product releases planned for this spring. At a press conference (as reported by Reuters and translated by NintendoEverything) Furukawa said they “anticipate a certain impact” from tariffs and the company is “establishing ways to respond.” The company expects “minimal” impact to its financial results. Van Dreunen said he expects Nintendo already fast-tracked production and shipments to the U.S. to avoid tariff threats.

Planning and preparation go hand-in-hand with Nintendo’s philosophy. A $400 Switch 2 will sell, if for no other reason than for brand loyalty’s sake. But for the rest of us gamers, the Switch 2 is a good marker for the gaming industry to inspect itself. We don’t need more and more AAA games with ludicrous budgets that demand $70 or even $100 from consumers. What we need is an industry that better balances cool features with affordability. Games don’t have to be a luxury product, especially when we’re staring down the barrel of rising prices and economic uncertainty. Nintendo’s formula long proved it works. More companies should take note.