-
Eric Karabell
Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Beloved Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh was one of only nine players to reach both 34 home runs and 100 RBI last season, but it still wasn’t enough to earn him a spot among the top-50 hitters in ESPN standard points leagues. Even with all that power, Raleigh scored just 311 fantasy points, placing him at No. 71 among hitters.
Don’t be surprised… if Raleigh finishes among the top-25 hitters this season
Things change quickly in baseball, especially when a veteran player makes positive adjustments. Entering Thursday, nobody has hit more home runs than Raleigh, but he is also among the top 20 in drawing walks. Last season, Raleigh drew walks at a 11.1% clip. This season, after six weeks, he is at 14.5%. This is a great sign, but ultimately Raleigh failed to rank among the top hitters last season because he struck out 176 times, tied for 10th most. Raleigh is making more contact in 2025, with higher exit velocity and a career-best Barrel rate. His first All-Star start beckons.
It’s tough for catchers to compare to typical hitters because of the demands of their position and a general lack of volume, but Milwaukee Brewers C William Contreras achieved notoriety last season when he scored 416 fantasy points, 16th among hitters. Contreras was able to do this because he hit .281 with 23 home runs, 99 runs scored and 78 walks over 679 PA. Contreras may not match those numbers in 2025, though, as he plays through a fractured middle finger. Keep him rostered as a top-10 catcher, but also keep expectations well in check.
Raleigh, if he continues his fantastic pace for power and improved plate discipline, can outscore what Contreras achieved in 2024. The Mariners, coveting his bat in the regular lineup, have utilized him eight times at DH, nearly halfway to last season’s mark of 19. This is great for fantasy. Catchers tend to tire as a season advances (although Raleigh posted a higher OPS in the second half of both of the last two seasons). Put simply, Raleigh isn’t a typical catcher, and this is his best season. Trade for him with confidence.
Don’t be surprised… if Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman becomes droppable
Rutschman was selected roughly three rounds ahead of Raleigh in ESPN average live drafts — and the results have hardly been the same. We should exhibit some patience here, as Rutschman’s signature plate discipline remains stellar and valuable in points formats, and the volume continues to be above average, but everything else is a problem.
Rutschman enters Thursday’s play hitting just .212 with four home runs, none over the past fortnight. Despite a .663 OPS, there are some positive indicators. He is hitting baseballs hard and his .227 BABIP may normalize soon. Rutschman’s expected batting average is a fun .283. He certainly isn’t chasing pitches. Few catchers make contact like this. The problem is, Rutschman really wasn’t so great — in fantasy — last season, either.
In 2023, Rutschman hit .277 with 20 home runs, scoring 84 runs and drawing 92 walks. His second year looked like the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. Last year, Rutschman, likely in part due to a hand injury, lost 100 points of OPS. A switch-hitter, he hit only .219 against right-handed pitching. He torched lefties. This season, small sample size caveats and all, Rutschman is doing sort of the opposite. His .801 OPS against right-handers is solid but he has all of six singles and nary an RBI in 37 AB against lefties.
We can dissect splits all we want (left/right, home/road, etc.), but Rutschman hit .207 and slugged an embarrassing .303 after the All-Star break last season, and things are not improving. He’s only nominally better so far in 2025. It feels terribly wrong to drop Rutschman for Chicago Cubs surprise Carson Kelly (where is this coming from?), Detroit Tigers breakout Dillon dangles or Colorado Rockies clean-up man Hunter Goodman (he has doubled his walk rate), but ask again in a month and we may be forced to do so.
Don’t be surprised… if Tampa Bay Rays OF Chandler Simpson is back in Triple-A soon
We all want to see the electric speedster Simpson running wild in the big leagues, stealing tons of bases. It is good for all of us. The problem is that the Rays should get outfielders Josh Lowe (oblique) and Jonny DeLuca (shoulder) back relatively soon. It is not a problem for them, really. Lowe is clearly a better player (and underrated in fantasy when healthy), having hit for power and stealing 32 bases in 2023. Meanwhile, DeLuca was off to a fine start this season, hitting .435 through nine games. They are strong defenders. DeLuca is an elite outfielder.
Simpson is fast, but he is such a poor defender. A converted second baseman, Simpson has arrived “as advertised” in the majors, making lots of incredibly soft contact and hitting around .300, and he steals a base and takes an extra base whenever possible. He is fun. Defensively, he has been one of the worst center fielders in the sport so far by any metric. He is probably a left fielder, not a center fielder, but hey, it all worked out fine for Vince Coleman once upon a time.
The Rays have options, and those relying on Simpson in fantasy should be realistic. Christopher Morel is a poor defender, too, but he offers much-needed power. Lowe hit cleanup for this offense most of last season, and nobody is blocking his path to playing time. DeLuca must play, especially if he keeps hitting. Kameron Misner is useful. So was Jake Mangum. We hope Simpson, who has six stolen bases in his first 64 PA, continues to play and improve. However, he is limited — and even the Rays know it.
Don’t be surprised… if San Francisco Giants RHP Logan Webb is a top-five fantasy hurler
Webb is already recognized as one of the most durable, reliable pitchers in fantasy, as he has surpassed 200 IP in both of the last two seasons. He has also won double-digit games in four consecutive seasons and his ERA since the start of 2021 is 3.15, with a 2.92 FIP. Webb finished second to Blake Snell for the 2023 NL Cy Young award, but the pitchers reached their results in diametrically different ways.
What Webb did not do over the course of those successful seasons was to pile on the strikeouts. This year, though, through eight starts, he is whiffing 28.7% of batters faced, No. 11 among starting pitchers. Last season, Webb fanned just 20.5% of hitters, 44th among qualified starters. Again, we love this fellow in fantasy, but Webb’s investors always had an ace who was a bit deficient in a very key category. This season, with a considerably better strikeout rate (thanks to a harder, more effective slider, along with fewer sinkers/changeups to induce grounders), he is missing more bats.
We shall see if this is at all sustainable or simply early season noise, but Webb (2.61 ERA, 1.85 FIP) may be on his way to his first 200-strikeout season, and perhaps his first Cy Young award. We like those in fantasy. Webb excelled last season, and yet there were still 22 starting pitchers with more fantasy points. With this strikeout rate, Webb will fare much better.
