It’s a long-awaited showdown: No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will face off for the French Open men’s title Sunday. The two have combined to win the last five majors, but have never played each other in a final. And, until this point, both have won every final they’ve played: Alcaraz is 4-0; Sinner 3-0.
Who will prevail? Our experts weigh in on how each could pull off the victory.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?
Rennae Stubbs: Use his athleticism and speed by turning defense into offense and frustrating Sinner into pressing. He must use his variety to move Sinner into parts of the court he’s not as comfortable, especially with his drop shot, and be willing to come in to the net and rush Sinner.
Simon Cambers: Well, he needs to do what he’s done in their four most recent meetings: play well and play to his strengths. Alcaraz leads 2-1 on clay, winning in the semifinals here last year and recently in Rome. He has the edge on the surface, where his forehand gets up high and where he can move his opponents around the court even better than elsewhere.
The rallies will be long and explosive, but his better all-around game — think drop shots, angles, net play — will give him an edge as long as he serves well, certainly better than he did against Musetti in the semis. He will want to make the match physical, too. Sinner is incredibly strong, but keeping up with Alcaraz on clay over four or five hours is something few people can manage, and the Spaniard will run everything down.
D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz has so much on his side entering this final. Aside from being the defending champion and having the experience of playing in the final at Roland Garros, he has won their past four meetings and their previous two on clay. In his 7-6 (5), 6-1 win in the Italian Open final just three weeks ago, Alcaraz called his performance “one of the best” he had played and spoke proudly about his ability to remain focused on his game plan until the final point.
He will need to do that same thing again, using his variety and physicality, patiently picking his spots to strike and constantly changing the pace. While Sinner has looked like he hasn’t missed a beat in his return from a three-month suspension, he has yet to play a match more than three sets since the fourth round at the Australian Open. The longer the match goes, the more it favors Alcaraz — and he will certainly be well aware of that.
Bill Connelly: Keep going for it. Alcaraz has won four in a row in this series, and the past three have all come primarily from Alcaraz’s ability to hit winners against Sinner’s increasingly impenetrable defense. Thus far in the French Open, opponents have hit winners against Sinner on 15% of points. In their past three meetings in particular, Alcaraz hit winners on 22.3% of points in last year’s French Open semifinals, 21.8% in Beijing last October, and, after a cautious first set, 22.5% in the second set in Rome last month.
Whoever wins the short points tends to win in this series, and Alcaraz has managed to turn the tables in that regard. He’s the only player to have beaten Sinner since last August, and it apparently takes his best offensive game to get the job done.
What can Sinner do to defeat Alcaraz?
Stubbs: Use his power and press the Alcaraz forehand. He cannot allow Alcaraz to dictate. It’s imperative to keep the ball as deep as possible to control the points. And he has to have a high percentage of first serves.
Cambers: Sinner has looked great in reaching the final without dropping a set, and he’s built that aura of invincibility thanks to his 20 straight Grand Slam match victories. He will need to serve extremely well against Alcaraz, though, because Alcaraz will take advantage of anything short on returns.
Sinner hits the ball so hard that if he is on his game, he can punch holes in Alcaraz, more than anyone else, but he will need to be really patient because Alcaraz will get more balls back than all his other opponents. Sinner will also be aware of Alcaraz’s devastating forehand, so expect him to pepper Alcaraz’s backhand and wait for a short ball. If he can do those things, Sinner has a good chance.
Maine: Sinner has yet to drop a set for a reason in this tournament, and he has been so rock-solid throughout. Even against Novak Djokoviche remained focused on his game and showed his nerves of steel in the third-set tiebreak.
That measured composure and unflappability will be crucial Sunday in the biggest moments. If Alcaraz shows any sign of nerves, Sinner will have to capitalize. He also will have to find a way to neutralize Alcaraz’s blistering movement and ability to return just about every ball.
As Simon said, he must have a strong serving performance and not give Alcaraz the opportunity for easy points. The Italian Open marked Sinner’s first tournament back and he’s certainly only improved with every match since. Would anyone be surprised to see him step it up even more on Sunday?
Connelly: I agree that landing his first serve is huge — Sinner got away with a lot of first-serve misses against Djokovic (especially in the first half of the match), and that’s not a well you want to dip into often. But the key against Alcaraz could come on Alcaraz’s serve: Sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz when he wins at least 37% of Alcaraz’s service points and 0-5 when he doesn’t. He has cleared 37% only once during his four-match losing streak to Alcaraz, and he has therefore faced far more break points (38) than he has created (22). In a battle (and a sport!) that comes down to such small margins, he has let Alcaraz creep ahead in the service department. That will probably need to change on Sunday.
Who will win?
Stubbs: Sinner. I think he’s playing as well as I have ever seen, his record at majors has been incredible, and I think it’s his time to finally beat Alcaraz in a big match. I feel like his level this tournament has been as good as I have ever seen him on clay. Sinner in four sets.
Cambers: Alcaraz is 4-0 in Grand Slam finals and Sinner is 3-0, so something’s got to give. These two usually bring out the best in each other, and the tennis could be spectacular. But on clay, where he has that little extra bit of time to chase down the ball, Alcaraz has the slight edge. He can win this in four or five sets.
Maine: Alcaraz in four sets. He has had such an impressive season on clay and knows exactly how to beat Sinner on the surface. This is his title to win. And not to mention, as pointed out by Bastien Fachan on Xhe would be the exact age — to the day — as Rafael Nadal was when he won his fifth major. That’s fate, right?
Connelly: I’m picking Sinner because overall, he’s just the best player in the world right now (my goodness, it was jarring watching Djokovic empty his bag of tricks and fail to win even a set against him Friday). It’s easy to see why Alcaraz could have the edge, especially on clay, but even when Alcaraz has beaten Sinner, the differences between the players have been infinitesimal. This one’s a coin toss as far as I’m concerned, and if the others are picking tails, I’m picking heads!
