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Bradford Doolittle
More than a week into June, it’s now too late to be early in the 2025 MLB season.
Within bounds, teams are what they are in the standings, with Memorial Day traditionally serving as the key early-season checkpoint when clubs begin to take a hard look at where they are. As we do each season with our June Stock Watch, we are going to do the same, but our hard looks have another looming checkpoint in mind: the trade deadline.
As we take a snapshot of where all 30 teams are positioned, separating them into four categories — October locks looking to fill postseason holes, contenders making a postseason push, fringe clubs, and teams that should look to the future — we’ll focus on what each team needs to do to clarify its status by the time the clock strikes 6 p.m. ET on July 31.
Jump to:
Arming for October
Positioning for a push
Not out of it … yet
Building for better days
Arming for October
Teams with high enough playoff probabilities that they’ll start considering possible postseason roster holes.
Win average: 99.6 (Last: 93.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 99.3% (Last: 91.7%)
Champions: 15.6% (Last: 10.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: With the Tigers a near cinch to return to the postseason, we’re way past wondering if their breakout is real. The Tigers are a better than 50-50 proposition to land the American League’s top seed. Still, it’s not too early for Detroit to be thinking about an October bullpen that could use a big strikeout arm (or two) for its high-leverage mix. The Tigers’ bullpen has been very good, but ranks in the bottom five in strikeout, swing-and-miss and chase rates. Every team wants that for their bullpen, so the sooner the Tigers jump into the trade mix, the better. Ideally, they’d hit July 31 with as much of their heavy deadline lifting already done as the market will allow.
Win average: 98.2 (Last: 96.0, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 97.7% (Last: 88.6%)
Champions: 13.5% (Last: 10.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Assess center field. When the Mets acquired Jose Siri during the offseason, it seemed likely that Siri was a stopgap solution while New York waited on some of its outfield prospects to mature. Tyrone Taylor has logged the most time in center, but he’s best suited for a complementary role. Among the prospects, Drew Gilbert is in Triple-A, but hasn’t hit there so far. Thus, center is an obvious position of need for New York, which seems like a great landing spot for Luis Robert Jr.
Win average: 97.9 (Last: 104.5, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 98.8%)
Champions: 16.2% (Last: 28.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: A Dodgers team we thought might challenge the wins record has proved one old adage: You really can’t have too much pitching. With an IL list worthy of an All-Star roster, the Dodgers have leaned on their MLB-best offense to stay atop the National League West, but they’ll need some kind of consistency from their battered pitching staff if they want to repeat as champs once October arrives. The next few weeks are all about figuring which hurlers the Dodgers can, or can’t, count on when their real season starts, then filling in the gaps accordingly.
Win average: 97.33 (Last: 95.8, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 96.7% (Last: 92.7%)
Champions: 12.3% (Last: 7.8%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Chicago is on pace to average its most runs per game since 1930, the season the Cubs’ Hack Wilson set the record with 191 RBIs. Even if some regression is inevitable on offense, the Cubs’ needs reside entirely on their below-average pitching staff. Lately, the bullpen has been terrific: Since the last Stock Watch, the Cubs have racked up seven saves and 19 holds with one blown save while putting up a second-ranked bullpen ERA (2.17). The rotation has ranked 20th in ERA (4.45) during that span, largely due to issues keeping the ball in the park. Some of that is a by-product of design — the Cubs’ starters pitch in the zone more than anyone — but adding to the rotation is a clear top priority for a club in the mix for the NL’s No. 1 seed.
Win average: 97.28 (Last: 90.8, 7th)
In the playoffs: 98.0% (Last: 84.5%)
Champions: 18.6% (Last: 9.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Is cloning Aaron Judge an option? No? First, note the Yankees’ title odds, which are the highest in this month’s Stock Watch. New York has a higher baseline rating than Detroit, giving the Yankees a narrow edge in all those simulated AL Championship Series meetings with the Tigers despite the road disadvantage. Also, the postseason paths of New York and Detroit are less laden with superteams than their NL brethren, so — voilà! — the Yankees’ title odds are looking good. To stay there: They need more pitching for sure, though the Yankees have done a great job of piecing things together so far. A more impactful pickup might come from a power bat for third base, with Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez leaping to mind as an ideal fit.
Positioning for a push
Teams with reasonable (or better) playoff probabilities looking to solidify a push for October.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 86.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 83.4% (Last: 66.6%)
Champions: 4.2% (Last: 3.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Astros have pitched their way back onto their familiar perch atop the AL West, though that might say as much about their divisional foes as them. The expanding spate of rotation injuries will test Houston, but Spencer Arrighetti should be back in a few weeks. The offense is at its lowest ebb since the rebuilding days more than a decade ago. Houston will have to hope for positive regression in some cases — Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez‘s health. That might be enough to keep Houston alive into October once again. Still, any kind of roster reconfiguring that gets Altuve out of left field might not be the worst idea.
Win average: 89.1 (Last: 89.7, 9th)
In the playoffs: 67.0% (Last: 59.7%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 2.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Giants have clearly passed the Arizona Diamondbacks in the quest to become a third NL West playoff entrant. San Francisco has pitched the heck out of the ball, played good defense and gotten enough hitting to survive. The Giants need more on offense, but their hands are tied at two of their weakest-performing spots. At catcher, Patrick Bailey‘s defense makes him a fixture, while, at shortstop, it’s Willy Adames‘ contract and track record that will keep him on the field. The obvious area for a major upgrade: first base, where the Giants have already shuffled the mix by DFA’ing LaMonte Wade Jr. Big corner bats among likely off-loaders appear to be in short supply, so Buster Posey will have to get creative. That is, unless he simply decides that prospect Bryce Eldridge is ready to aid a pennant push right now. Eldridge’s early showing at Triple-A suggests that might be the case.
Win average: 88.6 (Last: 90.3, 8th)
In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 66.2%)
Champions: 3.0% (Last: 4.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Worry. The Phillies’ league-average offense has been carried by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, even as Harper has struggled through wrist issues that have him back on the IL. The position group once again rates as one of baseball’s poorest defenses, so those guys — not just the star trio noted above — need to hit. If the offense can produce consistently — and soon, given the competitive environment in the NL — Dave Dombrowski can focus his trade resources on upgrading the Phillies’ leaky bullpen.
Win average: 88.4 (Last: 92.9, 5th)
In the playoffs: 62.0% (Last: 76.9%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 4.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Padres have rolled out a motley collection of non-producers in left field, which has yielded them an overall slash line of .200/.248/.286 with four homers at the position. Upgrade opportunity! Luis Robert Jr. might work if the Padres are convinced he has nowhere to go but up, as his .546 OPS is barely above that of the Padres’ left fielders. However A.J. Preller handles it, San Diego can’t leave this hole unfilled.
Win average: 87.2 (Last: 79.5, 17th)
In the playoffs: 68.8% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 2.9% (Last: 0.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Things have really ticked up for the Twins since the last Stock Watch. The good vibes have faded a bit recently because of two rotation injuries — shoulder maladies for Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews. Of course, Lopez’s injury is the more jarring, both for its impact and its severity. Now, rather than juggling the No. 5 rotation slot between Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, Woods Richardson and Festa have apparently ascended to the core group. Let’s face it: The Twins aren’t likely to make a splashy (hence, pricey) acquisition, but perhaps a lower-end rotation stabilizer might be doable.
Win average: 85.7 (Last: 76.8, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 42.1% (Last: 6.4%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 0.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Pick a lane. The Cardinals have exceeded their middling expectations and are well positioned to make a real push for the playoffs. Still, they are at best a 50-50 candidate to play into October. What does that mean for the kinda-sorta quick rebuild the Cardinals kinda-sorta entered into over the winter? If offloading, the Cardinals’ tradable contingent of pitchers — especially closer Ryan Helsley — would attract plenty of attention. Going into that mode becomes more difficult if St. Louis’ playoff odds keep going up. And even if that happens, does that then put St. Louis in the adding group?
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 56.9% (Last: 22.3%)
Champions: 2.0% (Last: 0.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Rays’ Pythagorean winning percentage since the last Stock Watch (.651) is the best in baseball. The results show in these improved odds and Tampa Bay’s rising place in the AL East standings. This is a classically constructed Rays roster built on elite run prevention, depth and interchangeability. The biggest upgrades the Rays are likely to make would be injury returns: Shane McClanahan to the rotation and Ha-Seong Kim to the infield. You might add Jonny DeLuca to that list, though his recovery from a shoulder injury seems to be progressing slowly. Getting that trio on the field is Tampa Bay’s top priority. If the Rays are active at the deadline, it will be because they want to be, not because they need to be.
Win average: 84.8 (Last: 79.1, 19th)
In the playoffs: 34.5% (Last: 11.4%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: After a sluggish start, the Brewers are back to winning with a deep pitching staff and team defense. The rotation is fully stocked, and should the Brewers require another starter, they have fire-balling prospect Jacob Misiorowski waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Milwaukee’s offense has suffered from a general lack of power, making that a category to upgrade. The tricky part is where to add that power. The production on the left side of the infield has been lackluster, but those spots are held by young players (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) the Brewers might just want to leave alone. What the Brewers need is for any or all of these players to go on power tears: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins.
Win average: 84.5 (Last: 91.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 51.1% (Last: 85.4%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 8.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Determine the real level of the offense. The Mariners’ roster was built around an elite rotation at the front of the pitching staff and an elite closer at the end of it. That closer — Andres Munoz — has held up his end of the bargain, but the rotation has scuffled with injuries and underperformance. Still, Jerry Dipoto and Dan Wilson have every reason to expect better from that group going forward, especially once Logan Gilbert returns from the IL. Seattle has stayed afloat thanks to an offense that has been surprisingly above average. Can it stay that way? If Dipoto can find production for first base and right field, this Mariners team has a real shot at a special second half.
Win average: 84.3 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 46.2% (Last: 25.0%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 0.6%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Decide what to do about Bo Bichette. The Jays have the look of a fence-straddler around the deadline, adding on the margins while trying to balance near- and long-term objectives. Bichette has been better than last season, but he hasn’t played so well that Toronto’s postseason hopes would be torpedoed by sending him away in advance of his looming free agency, preferably for pitching help. Toronto could fill Bichette’s spot from within, perhaps with a prospect like Leo Jimenez or Josh Kasevich, provided either or both are healthy soon. Down the line, the Jays could turn the position over to Arjun Nimmala. In other words, Toronto has options if an extension with Bichette isn’t worked out between now and the end of July.
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 82.9, 14th)
In the playoffs: 28.5% (Last: 40.9%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.9%)
What they need to do before the deadline: See where they stand. Yeah, that notion is a cop-out, but the Guardians’ direction at the deadline really might not be determined until the last day or two before July 31. Cleveland is well positioned for a wild-card push in the standings, but its run differential has been in the red all season. Last year’s powerhouse bullpen hasn’t carried the team as it did in 2024, the list of regressors headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians seldom make a deadline splash, but given the wellspring of position prospects in their system, you could see them doing something for the rotation or the outfield. That is, if Cleveland’s place in the playoff pecking order justifies the aggression.
Win average: 81.3 (Last: 83.6, 13th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 47.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Add offense. Someday, Jac Caglianone will draw a big league walk, but it’s hard telling when that will be. Longtime Royals fans might be reminded of the early career of Mark Quinn, whose swing-at-everything approach yielded tremendous early results — until they didn’t. Caglianone has a lot more upside than the Mighty Quinn, and doesn’t seem out of place in the majors less than a year after being drafted. But his approach is likely to mean up-and-down production for a while, and the Royals have more than one outfield slot that needs a lot of help. For that matter, they need to take a hard look at second baseman Michael Massey, a heretofore solid performer whose 2025 numbers are borderline catastrophic. You get the idea: The Royals, despite Jac’s arrival, need offense.
Not out of it … yet
Teams currently on the fringe of the playoff outlook but not yet certain to unload at the deadline.
Win average: 81.2 (Last: 87.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 44.2%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 1.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Score a lot of runs. An Arizona rotation that was already a major disappointment now has to cover for the season-ending loss of Corbin Burnes. And that unit has been a heck of a lot better than a bullpen that has a 6.15 ERA since the last Stock Watch. The Diamondbacks’ playoff probabilities have plummeted since we last convened, but they haven’t flatlined just yet. If Arizona is going to be in position to justify additions to the staff, it’ll be up to the hitters to get the team there. Outscoring teams en route to contention is a dicey proposition, but what other choice does Arizona have?
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 82.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 20.3% (Last: 43.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.8%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Garrett Crochet has largely been a one-man show for Boston’s disappointing rotation, though the Red Sox can hope for better days ahead for Walker Buehler, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. In the meantime, they’ve called up Roman Anthony, who didn’t look like someone who had much more to learn in the minors. The 497-foot shot Anthony hit last week might have landed in the Charles River had he been playing in Fenway. The Red Sox need to get hot soon if they want to be in position to add in July. Maybe Anthony will be the spark.
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 86.7, 12th)
In the playoffs: 12.6% (Last: 43.5%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 2.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Win games, and soon. It’s a terribly reductive prescription, but the Braves have unraveled in a most untoward fashion since the last Stock Watch. That was when we stated that if Atlanta could just tread water until Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider returned, the Braves we expected to have this year still had time to show up. The Braves did in fact tread water until Acuna’s first game in the majors, which was May 23. Beginning with that game, Atlanta dropped 12 of 15. If the Braves are going to get off the mat, they’ll have to figure out the late innings, a problem for which closer Raisel Iglesias does not currently seem to be a solution. Without a quick and emphatic bounce-back, Atlanta might be positioning itself for the 2026 postseason, not this one.
Win average: 79.6 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 18.4% (Last: 38.1%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 1.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Collectively, but mostly Joc Pederson, the .513 OPS the Rangers have gotten from the DH spot is 70 points worse than every other team in the majors, even the ones on track to challenge the loss record. The Rangers’ abysmal overall offense is not just the work of Pederson — no one can struggle badly enough to account for a team OPS+ of 84 — but his spot is the most glaringly in need of a runs-created infusion. The state of the AL in general, and the AL West in particular, means the Rangers can still make a run with any kind of offensive surge. It is crucial they assess whether it’s likely that Pederson (.131/.269/.238) will aid that cause. For what it’s worth, Pederson’s expected numbers, per Statcast, mark him as one of baseball’s more unlucky hitters, but even with average luck, he’d still be well below the big league standard at the dish.
Win average: 79.0 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 8.4% (Last: 10.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Who has the fifth-best Pythagorean winning percentage in the NL? Well, it’s the Reds (.561). (Why else would we ask that question in this spot?) Despite the plus differential, Cincinnati has mostly hovered around .500 while vacillating between fourth and fifth place in the Central. For the Reds, the deadline question centers on how real the run differential might or might not be, because a team that wins at a .561 clip over the 96 games Cincinnati has remaining would land in the 86-87 win range. The current 6-seed in the NL (Philadelphia) is on pace to win 92. Therein lies the dilemma: The Reds’ record should be better, but it’s not, and the landscape in this year’s NL is rugged. The Reds have a few weeks to clarify their position.
Win average: 73.2 (Last: 66.8, 26th)
In the playoffs: 2.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Latch on to recognizable veterans cut loose by other organizations. Wait — the Halos have been doing that since the end of last season, with LaMonte Wade Jr. serving as only the latest example. (Or did they add Ben Gamel last? It’s hard to keep track.) Give the Angels credit for trying to shore up their holes, but just as we noted during preseason, raising the floor doesn’t necessarily raise the ceiling. They don’t have nearly enough pitching and the offense is overly predicated on all-or-nothing hitters. The only thing keeping the Angels out of the group below is their approach to keep adding. Maybe they’ll click on the right combination before another season is lost.
Building for better days
Teams that should be favoring future value over present value with remaining in-season moves.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 70.5, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Nationals aren’t likely to budge much in this pecking order one way or the other. They don’t have enough for a major push this season, but they’ve made enough progress that they won’t bottom out, either. They are trying to win on a game-by-game basis, if only to push their maturing core toward that kind of mindset in hopes of hitting a Tigers-like tipping point sometime soon. They will look for trade matches involving movable vets like Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Nathaniel Lowe. But the Nationals might also be in position to add a little salary if there is a bottom-destined team looking to move money.
Win average: 69.4 (Last: 75.7, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.6% (Last: 11.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get burn-your-face-off hot. The bleak outlook the Orioles had in the last Stock Watch has worsened, even though Baltimore has recently put together its best stretch of baseball this season, winning six straight and nine of 11. As you can see, the Orioles’ mathematical shot at the playoffs remains long, and it’s likely we’ll see them trying to set themselves up for 2026 at the trade deadline, as the Rays did last year. Perhaps it might be for the best that the Orioles look to that near future, play all of their young position players such as Heston Kjerstad who have yet to find big league consistency, and live with the short-term results. And, for the love of Pete, figure out what’s wrong with Adley Rutschman. Barring a sudden, jarring hot streak, this season appears lost.
Win average: 67.2 (Last: 66.0, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: It stinks, but it’s probably wrong to prescribe any approach for the Pirates except to see what they can get back for veterans like Andrew Heaney, Tommy Pham (it wouldn’t be a deadline without a Pham trade) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. A team like the Nationals might pounce if the stingy Pirates look to move Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ contract. As for Paul Skenes, forget it. Don’t even think about it. If you are going to trade that guy, in his second year, just because you were too cheap to put a competitive offense behind him, why do you even have a team?
Win average: 64.3 (Last: 77.5, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: With even a modicum of pitching, the Athletics would be an intriguing second-half team thanks to one of the most watchable offenses in baseball. All they had to do was hang around break-even. Instead, the staff collapsed so thoroughly in both the rotation and the bullpen that the A’s have torpedoed their season before the middle of June. You should still watch, if only to catch the marvel that is Jacob Wilson at the plate. But the front office will likely be up to its usual task of moving around the fringes of deadline activity. This is another team that, going forward, would be a great fit if the Pirates unload Hayes.
Win average: 62.4 (Last: 63.6, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get Sandy Alcantara close to right. This deadline is really about do they/don’t they with the former Cy Young winner. Alcantara’s stuff has rebounded well enough from his missed season, but his command has been slow to follow. At one time in evaluative circles, Alcantara’s unsightly 7.89 ERA might have taken too much air out of his trade value for the Marlins to move him now. But this is one offshoot of advance tracking: The outlook of a pitcher can change fast if his metrics spike or tank. A spike is what the Marlins need from Alcantara, or else they might as well hang onto him.
Win average: 58.2 (Last: 54.9, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Make a call on Luis Robert Jr. This season has really been a worst-case scenario for the White Sox when it comes to Robert. His numbers have been bad from the outset and somehow keep getting worse. Robert’s offseason work to improve his swing decisions have resulted in a career-best walk rate, but at the expense of just about everything else of value. His 21 stolen bases and good defense mean he can help a team, but his .546 OPS means they aren’t going to treat him as if his two $20 million club option years are worth anything. Right now, he’s a defense-and-speed short-term outfield pickup with a $2 million buyout. So should the White Sox unfurl the white flag and take what they can get? The answer is probably tied to how willing Chicago would be to pick up the first of those options in the absence of a deal. Otherwise, the vultures will be circling.
Win average: 40.8 (Last: 44.6, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get a clue. Here’s a tale of two teams: the Rockies and the Mets. New York goes up 8-0 early and cruises to a 13-5 win. OK, fine. Colorado is bad, and even good teams get blown out like that sometimes. Look deeper. The Mets used two pitchers in the game, letting combo pitcher Paul Blackburn ride the last four frames to save the bullpen even though New York had the next day off. The Rockies used five relievers to cover the six innings after starter Chase Dollander was, well, chased. The parade included Seth Halvorsen, Zach Agnos and Tyler Kinley — three of Colorado’s four highest-leverage relievers. Some of this was to shake off rust, but this is no way to deploy a relief staff. Halvorsen, the closer, was working for the first time in five days. The key reliever they didn’t use — Jake Bird — is probably the one they can get the best return for in a deadline swap.
