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Michael Voepel
The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty losing their first games of the season didn’t change the top of ESPN’s WNBA Power Rankings, but it did shake up the Commissioner’s Cup picture.
A week ago, it seemed likely that the Lynx and Liberty would meet in the championship game on July 1, as they did last year. Now, the Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever — with Caitlin Clark back in the latter lineup after missing five games (quad injury) — have a chance to beat the Liberty to represent the Eastern Conference, while the Seattle Storm face the Lynx for those rights in the Western Conference. And it all comes down to Tuesday’s concluding Cup games.
Let’s start in the East.
If the Dream beat the Liberty on the road, Atlanta will represent the East regardless of whether the Fever beat the Connecticut Sun thanks to Atlanta’s win over Indiana on June 10. If the Dream lose and the Fever win, Indiana and New York would be 4-1 — the Fever would have the tiebreaker as a result of their Cup game victory over the Liberty on Saturday, when Clark returned to action. (Note that results before Cup games started June 1 don’t count.)
The Liberty, who won the Cup title in 2023 and lost the championship to the Lynx last year, need to beat the Dream and have the Fever lose to the Sun in order to reach New York’s third consecutive final.
Meanwhile in the West, the Lynx, Storm and the Golden State Valkyries could all finish at 4-2 in the Cup standings along with the Phoenix Mercurywho concluded Cup play Sunday. But because of the various tiebreaking scenarios, Phoenix and Golden State are already eliminated.
Minnesota still controls its Cup destiny. The Lynx will advance to the final if they defeat the Las Vegas Aces at home or if Seattle loses on the road to the Los Angeles Sparks. Seattle would need both a win over Los Angeles and a Minnesota loss to advance.
If the Lynx and Liberty don’t meet for the Commissioner’s Cup title, we won’t see the league’s two best teams face off until late July in what would be the first of four meetings over three weeks.
Previous ranking: 1
Next seven days: vs. LV (June 17), vs. LA (June 21)
Coach Cheryl Reeve was very pragmatic after last Wednesday’s 94-84 loss at Seattle, saying Minnesota simply didn’t play well enough to win on the road. The Lynx bounced back with a 101-78 win over the Sparks on Saturday behind Napheesa Collier ‘s 32 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists. That, combined with the Liberty’s loss to the Fever, keeps the Lynx in the top spot. A win over Las Vegas on Tuesday gets Minnesota back into the Commissioner’s Cup final a year after winning it.
Previous ranking: 2
Next seven days: vs. ATL (June 17), vs. PHO (June 19), @ SEA (June 22)
The Liberty are not the same team without starters Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (overseas commitment for EuroBasket). Coach Sandy Brondello said the team hopes to have Jones back for Tuesday’s game against the Dream, but the Liberty are thinking “big picture” about her health as it pertains to a long season. Sabrina Ionescu‘s scoring stood out last week with a combined 57 points between a win over Chicago and a loss at Indiana.
Previous ranking: 5
Next 7 days: @ NY (June 17), vs. WAS (June 20), vs. CHI (June 22)
This is how effectively new coach Karl Smesko has translated his 3-point heavy offense from college to the WNBA: Atlanta set a franchise record with 18 3s in Sunday’s win at Washington. The Dream’s 84.6 points per game also rank third in the league compared to a league-worst 77.0 last season. Overall, they went 3-0 last week with wins over Indiana and Chicago, too, and are one win away from their first Commissioner’s Cup final. But they will have to get past the Liberty in New York on Tuesday.
Previous ranking: 4
Next 7 days: @ CON (18), @ NYY (19), @ 21)
The Mercury went 2-0 last week with victories over the Wings and Aces behind Satou Sabally‘s combined 42 points and 18 rebounds. Their starting lineup and top reserves are now at full strength with Kahleah Copper (knee), Alyssa Thomas (calf) and Natasha Mack (back) having returned from injuries over the past week. Thomas had points-assists double-doubles in both wins after missing five games.
Previous ranking: 6
Next 7 days: vs. CON (June 17), @ GS (June 19), @ LV (June 22)
It took Caitlin Clark a quarter — in which she hit three consecutive long-range 3s — to reestablish her dynamic impact. She finished with 32 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds as the Fever handed the Liberty their first loss of the season Saturday, with Indiana making 17 3s just four days after losing to Atlanta with a season-low 58 points. The Fever did not have DeWanna Bonner (out for personal reasons) in the win but got a very good effort from their bench with a combined 20 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists.
Previous ranking: 3
Next seven days: @ La (June 17), @ lV (June 20), vs. NY (June 22)
Seattle has been hard to figure out. Are the Storm more like the team that dealt the Lynx their first loss last Wednesday? Or more like the team that was outrebounded 33-20 and fell 76-70 at the Valkyries on Saturday? It’s impossible to be sure right now, which is why the Storm have bounced around in each week’s edition of the Power Rankings. Thanks to the win over Minnesota, though, Seattle stays a smidge ahead of Golden State despite losing to the Valkyries on the road.
Previous ranking: 8
Next 7 days: @ DAL (June 17) vs. IND (June 19), vs. CON (June 22)
Perspective is everything. A 5-5 mark seems like a triumphant start for the Valkyries’ first season, even though that same record is arguably disastrous for the Aces. It looks like what the Valkyries said in the preseason about not underestimating them was not just hopeful rhetoric — they have won three in a row and lost the three games before that by an average of only 8.3 points. Kayla Thorntonpicked up from New York in the expansion draft, has four double-doubles after just five total over her previous nine WNBA seasons.
Previous ranking: 7
Next 7 days: @ MIN (June 17), vs. SEA (June 20), vs. IND (June 22)
The Aces weren’t playing like contenders, even before three-time MVP A’ja Wilson entered the concussion protocol after being hit in the face during Wednesday’s 97-89 loss to the Sparks, though Las Vegas did rally to beat Dallas 88-84 on Friday before falling 76-70 to Phoenix on Sunday. Coach Becky Hammon said there should be more emphasis on penalizing hits to the head, telling reporters after the loss to the Mercury, “I think it’s something that people really have to start looking at, because people are dropping like flies with concussions.”
Previous ranking: 10
Next 7 days: vs. SEA (June 17), @ MIN (June 21)
The Sparks fell 101-78 at the Lynx on Saturday, but let’s focus on the bright spots for Los Angeles: second-year forward Rickea Jacksonwho missed games on May 30 and June 1 while in the concussion protocol, had a career-high 30 points in Wednesday’s 97-89 win over Las Vegas. And fellow post player Azura Stevens is averaging career bests in scoring (13.3) and rebounding (8.7) in her eighth WNBA season. That said, there is also a recent setback: Kelsey Plumwho leads the Sparks in scoring and assists, is out Tuesday with a leg injury.
Previous ranking: 9
Next 7 days: @ CHI (June 17), @ ATL (June 20), vs. DAL (June 22)
The Mystics have dropped four of their past five games since the end of May, including a 89-56 home loss to the Dream on Sunday in which Washington made only 3 shots from deep compared to Atlanta’s franchise-record 18. It was the Mystics’ lowest point total of the season and came only a week after they scored a season-high 104 against the Sun.
Previous ranking: 12
Next 7 days: vs. WAS (June 17), vs. PHO (June 21), @ ATL (June 22)
After losing to the Liberty and Dream earlier in the week, the Sky secured a much-needed pick-me-up Sunday with a 78-66 win at the Sun as Angel Reese got her first WNBA triple-double (11 points, 11 assists, 13 rebounds). Chicago has the league’s second-worst net rating at minus-14.6, ranking ahead of only Connecticut’s minus-22.
Previous ranking: 11
Next 7 days: @ IND (June 17), vs. PHO (June 18), vs. DAL (June 20), @ GS (June 22)
The Sun’s only game last week was their loss to the Sky, which highlighted just how much Connecticut’s offense and defense has struggled this season. The Sun have the league’s worst offensive rating (92.7) and lowest scoring average (71.3 points per game), plus the worst defensive rating (114.7). Somehow, the Sun still have one more victory than the Wings — but are also the only team that Dallas has defeated.
Previous ranking: 13
Next 7 days: vs. GS (June 17), @ CON (June 20), @ WAS (June 22)
The good news is that No. 1 draft pick Paige Bueckers has returned from the concussion protocol and illness, which kept her out four total games. She had 35 points in her return Wednesday, but Dallas still lost 93-80 at Phoenix. And just when the Wings looked like they could get back in the victory column Friday, the Aces outscored them 17-2 in the closing stretch of the 88-84 defeat.
