After a back-and-forth battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, the 2025 NBA Finals are one step closer to crowning a new champion.
Tied 2-2 in the series entering Game 5 on Monday, the Thunder dominated at home behind the dynamic performances of MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 points) and Jalen Williams (40). Now leading 3-2, only one more victory stands between the Thunder and the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
The Pacers’ biggest question revolves around the status of star guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has a strained right calf and will undergo an MRI, as reported Tuesday by ESPN’s Shams Charania. In Game 5, Haliburton scored only four points — the lowest total of his playoff career — to go with six assists and seven rebounds.
Our NBA insiders answer some of the biggest questions entering a potential Finals-clinching Game 6 in Indianapolis on Thursday, including how the Pacers can force a Game 7 and the biggest X factors to watch for.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how concerned should the Pacers be about Tyrese Haliburton‘s Game 5 performance and his status?
Tim MacMahon: 10. It’s hard to see the Pacers generating a lot of points against the league’s best defense without a healthy Haliburton. It’s not all about scoring for him, but the Pacers are a different team when Haliburton is in attack mode. Indiana is 12-3 when Haliburton scores at least 20 points in these playoffs and 8-11 when he doesn’t. T.J. McConnell brings energy off the bench and can go on scoring flurries, like he did in the third quarter of Game 5; but he is the NBA equivalent of a third-down running back who isn’t equipped to get 25 carries.
Jamal Collier: 10. Scoring doesn’t tell the whole story with Haliburton, but he’s the engine that makes this team go. He was limited on Monday, unable to drive by any defenders, and he spent most of the time standing in the corners while others initiated the offense. If he can’t be significantly more effective than he was in Game 5, the Pacers’ path to victory becomes extremely difficult.
Chris Herring: A solid 8, and maybe even that is too low. But it isn’t the performance in Game 5 that concerns me; it’s how injured he must be to have played that poorly in a moment like that. Yes, Haliburton is prone to put up occasional bad games, so it might have been just that. But the Pacers were largely awful Monday — with bad outings from Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, ample Tony Bradley minutes and turnovers galore — yet still had a chance to win in the closing minutes. So, if Haliburton’s mobility is lessened in Game 6 as a result of his injured calf, it’s enormously concerning. Even if McConnell has more clutch performances up his sleeve, it’s hard to see Indiana squeezing out two more victories without Haliburton being right physically.
Tim Bontemps: 10. This one is pretty simple: Indiana’s season ends with one more loss, and the Pacers’ engine seems like he’ll be a good deal less than 100 percent. It doesn’t get more concerning than that.
Zach Kram: 10. This wasn’t a bad Game 5 merely because of a shooting slump or Luguentz Dort‘s lockdown defense, which would be manageable concerns. This was a bad game because of a calf injury, which doesn’t typically go away quickly and which sapped Haliburton’s movement throughout Monday’s contest.
The Pacers will extend the series if _____.
Herring: If Haliburton isn’t himself, it becomes fair to wonder whether Rick Carlisle would be better off riding McConnell as the team’s lead guard for an extended time — certainly more than the 22 minutes he played Monday — and run the offense through Pascal Siakam more often. Leaving Haliburton in because he feels he can contribute — he said if he can walk, he wants to play, given that this is the NBA Finals — gets blurry if he is struggling similarly to how he did in Game 5. Even if Haliburton isn’t 100 percent, the Pacers give themselves a much better chance by simply taking better care of the ball. Oklahoma City took what had been an eight-point edge midway through the fourth and built it into a 16-point lead in no time because Indiana had four consecutive turnovers during one key stretch.
Bontemps: They control a combination of the following stats: bench scoring, points off turnovers and 3-point shooting. And in many ways, all three are related. If Indiana takes care of the ball, hits 3s and outpaces Oklahoma City’s bench scoring (the first time a team got more bench scoring and lost in this series was Game 5), that’ll mean Indiana is dictating how the game is playing out. The Thunder thrive on creating turnovers, getting in the open floor and making open layups and 3s. Limiting those things will go a long way toward helping Indiana win.
Collier: They control the tempo in Game 6. Limiting turnovers and better health from Haliburton are a given to even have a chance, but the Pacers also are going to need the game to be played at their tempo. That means a much faster pace, running out in transition after made baskets, limiting the Thunder’s free throws and forcing them back into a half-court setting, which can turn OKC’s offense back into the iso-heavy attack it devolved into in Games 3 and 4. Putting all of those factors together is a tall task.
Kram: They score at least 110 points. Indiana is 14-0 in the postseason when it reaches that number versus 0-7 when it doesn’t. Sure, it’s simplistic, but Indiana has relied on its electric offense to power victories all season, so it’s not exactly a surprise that the Pacers win when they can score and lose when they can’t.
MacMahon: They probably need a monster performance from the proven champion on the roster. Siakam carried Indiana to what seemed like an improbable win in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals by putting up 39 points against the New York Knicks. Can he come up with that sort of an outing with the Pacers’ season on the line? Siakam has been very good in this series, averaging 20.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He needs to crank it up another notch or two for the Pacers to force a Game 7.
The Thunder win the Finals if ____.
Bontemps: They hit 3-pointers. That OKC has been winning in these playoffs while shooting as poorly as it has been at times really is something. But if the Thunder can have a hot shooting game on the road in Game 6, it’s hard to see them having to play a Game 7 given the other advantages they’ll have in their favor as well as Haliburton’s uncertain status.
Collier: They have truly solved something with Indiana’s defense. Their two stars get all the headlines, but the Thunder were overall in a much better flow on offense in Game 5. Given that defense for Oklahoma City has been a constant, if this offensive flow is sustainable, the Thunder are well-positioned to go on the road and come away with a victory.
MacMahon: They impose their will. As Chet Holmgren put it, “Luck always tends to favor the aggressors.” The Pacers play fast, but they are not a finesse team; Indiana has put the Thunder on their heels at times with its toughness. Oklahoma City flipped that in the fourth quarter of Game 4, keying the Thunder’s comeback, and amped it up in Game 5, forcing 23 turnovers that were converted into 32 points. OKC has an opportunity to put the finishing touches on one of the best defensive seasons in recent memory.
2:10
Stephen A.: ‘Jalen Williams is special’
Stephen A. Smith praises Thunder small forward Jalen Williams after his 40-point game vs. the Pacers.
Herring: They get another 30-plus-point performance from Williams. They’ll also need another charged-up showing from Cason Wallace, who responded extremely well with 11 points and four steals in just 17 minutes after a pretty brutal Game 4 (and after being moved to the bench following Game 3). And the Thunder must win the turnover battle by double digits again, like they did during Game 4 in outscoring Indiana by a whopping 32-9 margin in points off turnovers.
Kram: At least one bench player steps up on the road. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander were both incredible in the past two victories, but the Thunder also benefited from crucial contributions from Alex Caruso, who scored 20 points in Game 4, and Wallace and Aaron Wiggins, who combined for 25 points and seven 3s in Game 5.
An X factor in Game 6 will be ____.
Kram: Nembhard’s offense. The dogged defender has quietly regressed on offense as the playoffs have progressed. Through Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, he was averaging 14.4 points and 5.5 assists per game while making 53% of his 3-pointers. Since then, he has fallen to 9.1 points, 3.4 assists and 31% 3-point shooting; and in Game 5 of these Finals, Nembhard committed several critical turnovers that ruined Indiana’s chance at a comeback. Especially with Haliburton’s health in doubt, the Pacers’ other starting guard will need to turn in a big performance, on both ends.
Collier: Indiana’s role players have looked more comfortable at home throughout the series, and they will be important in Game 6. But simply put, if Haliburton can’t be close to his usual self driving the offense, I’m not sure there’s an X factor that can make up the difference for Indiana.
Herring: The amount of time Indiana takes to get into its offense. The Thunder’s defense was stifling in the paint during Game 5, and between Haliburton not moving well and McConnell not being much of a floor spacer — even with McConnell having an epic third period from the floor — Indiana looked stuck in the mud for long stretches, which is the opposite of how the club’s offense operates. Being at home should help, but if the Pacers can’t generate transition looks to take some pressure off of Haliburton, the night figures to end with OKC holding hardware.
MacMahon: Will Oklahoma City get production off the pine? The Thunder’s deep bench has been a major factor in each of Oklahoma City’s wins in this series. Caruso has a couple of 20-point performances after not having any during the regular season. Wiggins had 18 points in Game 2 and 14 in Game 5, hitting a combined nine 3s in those two outings (and none in the other three Finals contests). Wallace was 3-of-4 from 3-point range in Game 5 after going 0-of-8 in his first four Finals games. If Oklahoma City gets some scoring punch off the bench, plan the parade in Bricktown.
Bontemps: Can Myles Turner get going? After some incredible performances earlier in these playoffs, his numbers have fallen off in this series, including going 5-for-22 from 3. Especially with Haliburton’s role in question, Indiana could desperately use Turner going for 20-plus points and being the threat from beyond the arc he was previously in the postseason.
True or false: This series will go to Game 7
Herring: False. I’d love for it to, and the series has been largely fantastic, so there’s plenty of reason to think it will. But I believe there are simply too many questions about whether Haliburton will be himself physically to predict that the Pacers will beat the Thunder’s dominant defense again in Game 6. I hope I’m wrong so we can have a winner-take-all matchup for the title, though. Nothing would be more fun than that.
Bontemps: False. Between Haliburton’s injury and Oklahoma City continuing to show its strengths in this series — which has been wildly entertaining — I think we’ll see the Thunder win their first championship Thursday night. I guess I just haven’t learned after the way the Pacers have performed throughout these playoffs, but this feels too big of a combination of factors for them to overcome.
Collier: False. With Haliburton’s health in question and the Thunder rolling, it doesn’t feel that way. But it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Indiana has one more magic trick to pull when it’s been counted out.
MacMahon: Per my personal policy, I don’t make predictions on series that I cover. However, I do have a flight booked to go home Friday morning.
Kram: True, if Haliburton is reasonably healthy following two off days; false, if he is as limited as he appeared in Game 5. That equivocal answer is probably cheating, but it’s impossible to properly predict the Pacers this postseason.
