U.S.-Mexico Gold Cup final preview, predictions, more

Sunday will mark the latest chapter in the United States and Mexico rivalry as the pair meet in Houston’s NRG Stadium to determine the winner of the 2025 Gold Cup. Despite having less than ideal preparations — they both lost emphatically to Switzerlandwith the U.S. being defeated by Turkey and The tri beating them 1-0 — the pair have navigated through through this Concacaf competition.

The U.S. gained momentum as the tournament went on with a 5-0 win over Trinidad & Tobago, a 1-0 success over Saudi Arabia and a 2-1 victory over Haiti. This set up a quarterfinal date with Costa Ricain which Mauricio Pochettino’s side emerged after a sudden-death penalty shootout following a 2-2 draw. That resulted in a semifinal against Guatemalawith the U.S. prevailing 2-1.

Meanwhile, Mexico shrugged off a nervy 3-2 win over Dominican Republic with a 2-0 win over Suriname and a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica ahead of a 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia in the quarterfinals. From there, a Raúl Jiménez goal was enough to send Mexico into the final at Honduras‘ expense, bringing us to Sunday’s epic encounter.

So, with the stage set for the final, ESPN reporters at the Gold Cup chime in on the major talking points surrounding Sunday’s clash.

The U.S. hasn’t been rotating much in the Gold Cup; how much will it have in the tank against Mexico?

Pochettino has done precious little rotation during the Gold Cup. Seven players have started every match, with another three in the XI for four of the five. When there was a week break between the group stage and the knockout rounds, Pochettino’s lineup choices didn’t raise too many concerns, but after a semifinal in which the U.S. had just 46% possession in the second half, it’s worth asking if the USMNT is out of gas.

It certainly looked like it. Striker Patrick AGYEMANG appeared to be running on fumes after halftime, as did midfielder Luca de la Torre. Pochettino did bring off De la Torre for Brenden Aaronsonwhich helped, but the U.S. still struggled in the game’s latter stages. The team needed some fresh legs earlier.

Then there is the status of midfielder Tyler Adams. Adams came off in the 77th minute against Guatemala due to what Pochettino described as a hamstring ailment. This is a player with a history of injuries, so Adams’ availability — and energy levels — will bear watching.

There is something to be said for lineup continuity, as it’s clear chemistry has definitely been developed within the starting lineup this summer. But the U.S. figures to do plenty of chasing against a Mexico side that will likely have more of the ball, meaning the team’s intensity levels will need to remain high. — Jeff Carlisle

Can the USMNT’s breakout performers (Luna, Tillman, Freese) deliver on the biggest international stage of their careers?

It’s one thing to make an impact against a side like Haiti or Saudi Arabia, but it’s another to do the same against a historic rival such as Mexico in a packed house like will be encountered in Texas on Sunday. There’s a noteworthy tenacity to attackers such as Malik Tillman and Diego Lunawho have combined for 10 goal contributions in the Gold Cup, and it wouldn’t be much of a shock if either of them rose to the occasion in the same manner we’ve seen so far in this tournament.

Luna in particular seems to highlight that spirit that’s needed in a tournament final. Days after applauding the “grit” and “determination” from his fellow teammates that’s seen in his own game, the Real Salt Lake star appears perfectly suited for going toe-to-toe with Mexican marquee players who will have to be at their best when defending the winger.

In net, Matthew Freese is also worthy of credit for the significant boost he’s been given by Pochettino, but after some shaky moments in the latest semifinal, could he end up being a weak link against The tri‘s long list of attacking options? Regardless of the USMNT name called upon, Sunday’s match will be the most challenging test of the summer. – Cesar Hernandez

How close is Mexico’s Gold Cup team to becoming the XI for the 2026 World Cup?

The 26 players Javier Aguirre brought to the Gold Cup look like the base of the squad that will represent Mexico in the 2026 World Cup.

The Gold Cup is Aguirre’s final big test before next summer, and the coach has been adamant that he has already defined between 50% and 60% of the squad that will go to the next World Cup. The remaining doubts relate to which player will play at right back and the players chosen to replace Luis Chávezwho is injured for up to eight months.

In the Gold Cup, Aguirre has found Johan Vásquez and César Montes to be his ideal center back pairing. In midfield, Edson Álvarez is the captain and automatic starter. In attack, the most important player is Raúl Jiménezand he’ll need to be at his best Sunday and next summer if The tri is to live up to its potential. – Omar Flores

Will 16-year-old Mora continue to progress on Concacaf’s biggest stage?

One year ago, the kid from Chiapas wasn’t even a professional player. And yet, 10 months after becoming the youngest to ever score in Liga MXClub Tijuana teenager Gilberto Mora has taken Mexican soccer by storm with his unprecedented level of confidence and polish for an attacking midfielder of his age.

There’s a high ceiling for Mora, the 16-year-old who provided the game-winning assist for Jiménez in Mexico’s semifinal win against Honduras, and with veteran manager Javier Aguirre now giving him full trust after an ACL injury to Chávez, Mora is set to once again lead the heart of Mexico’s XI.

Whether you’re a fan or an opposing defender, keep an eye on his excellent ball control and superb vision. Mora has so far exceeded expectations at an unparalleled rate in The triand with another likely spot in the XI after making his national team debut in January, Sunday could become another steppingstone for the player who is leveling up at a frightening rate.

Widely seen as the future of Mexican soccer, this weekend might prove that he’s also the present ahead of the World Cup. — Hernandez

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Gomez: USMNT ‘learned how to suffer’ in win vs. Guatemala

Herculez Gomez breaks down some of the lessons he thinks the United States learned in a 2-1 win over Guatemala.

Is Aguirre’s reputation on the line against the United States?

Let’s be clear: Aguirre’s prestige or reputation is not at risk against the United States. The Mexico national team coach admitted that his team is the favorite to win the Gold Cup, but he always made it clear that his main objective is to prepare the team for the 2026 World Cup.

Aguirre opted for the Gold Cup to complete his final stress tests on the squad, and he still managed to lead Mexico to the final. The World Cup is his priority, so Aguirre’s prestige is not at risk. — Flores

After getting a taste of a hostile crowd vs. Guatemala, how will the U.S. handle a strong Mexico crowd in the final?

After the semifinal win over Guatemala, U.S. defender Tim Ream revealed how some players were shocked at how pro-Guatemala the crowd was and asked how this could happen in the United States. Ream’s response? “This is the way it is. You have to embrace it.”

Clearly, the U.S. team benefited from being exposed to this kind of atmosphere in the semi. It’s not enough to tell a player how it will be — they have to experience it for themselves. That’s important, because the vibes on Sunday will be turned up to 11. The capacity of NRG Stadium (72,220) is more than three times that of Energizer Stadium (22,423) in St. Louis, site of the semifinal. And Mexico fans will have no compunction about making things as uncomfortable as possible for their longtime rival.

Successfully taking the sting out of the vociferous support for The tri will require the U.S. to do a few things. The USMNT will need to stay organized, as Mexico fans have been known to turn on their team when things don’t go according to plan. But more importantly, the U.S. needs to get enough possession to allow it to rest and make Mexico chase the game a bit. That doesn’t mean the U.S. will need to win the possession battle — it just needs to win it enough to help it manage the game. — Carlisle

Score predictions

Mexico 2-1 United States: The U.S. is certainly capable of winning this game, but Mexico has a bit more quality in attack, which will likely prove to be the difference. — Carlisle

Mexico 2-1 United States: As per usual with this heated rivalry, Sunday’s final will be a close one no matter what, but man-for-man, Mexico’s Gold Cup roster is stronger than that of Pochettino’s. With more depth on the bench that could define this game, expect The tri to narrowly earn the win. — Hernandez

Mexico 2-1 United States: Houston is the end of Aguirre’s testing ground, and he will field his closest 11 to the World Cup against the region’s fiercest rival. It’s the perfect time to consolidate the project, which ends in less than a year, and I expect him to be successful on Sunday. — Flores