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Eric Karabell
Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Atlanta Braves OF Jurckon profar delivered surprisingly wonderful numbers during the 2024 season, hitting .280/.380/.459 for the San Diego Padres over 158 games, with 24 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB and 94 runs. Perhaps Profar, active this week after serving an 80-game suspension for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy, achieved these fantastic numbers for dubious reasons, but nobody can take away the fact he was the No. 15 hitter in ESPN points formats. It was a legitimately valuable fantasy season for sure.
Don’t be surprised… if Profar is a top-25 hitter the rest of the season
Profar homered Wednesday in his first game back in Atlanta’s lineup, his first time playing since the first week of the season. The Braves, decimated by injuries this season, have a long way to go to get into playoff contention, but they can do it with a high-powered offense. Profar plays a key role there, since the Braves have lacked left field production and a productive No. 2 hitter. Profar batted fifth Wednesday, but perhaps the switch-hitter moves up to the No. 2 spot, nestled between star OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 1B Matt OlsonDH Marcell Ozuna and 3B Austin Riley. It is a great spot to be in.
Fantasy managers might think they know everything, but nobody knows for sure what affect Profar taking an illegal substance played in his stunning 2024 season. Presuming he cannot replicate his rate of performance over the final three months of 2025 is short-sighted. We don’t know what really happened or when. We do know Profar was a terrific fantasy option, and he is rostered in only 31.8% of ESPN standard leagues, though up 9.4% over the past seven days. Good! He should be one of the most added hitters!
Let us be even more positive/optimistic here. Profar doesn’t need to produce an .839 OPS and score a ton of runs like last season to matter in fantasy moving forward, but it seems likely he does something statistically that will intrigue us. Wednesday night was a good start. Invest and you may be surprised. Again.
Don’t be surprised… if Tampa Bay Rays OF Chandler Simpson leads MLB in stolen bases
Simpson, back from a month-long stint in Triple-A to work on his outfield defense, continues to look like the fastest man in baseball these days, and there is seemingly no stopping him as he accumulates stolen bases at a staggering rate. Simpson, who swiped 104 bases in 110 minor-league games (504 PA) in 2024, stole his 23rd base of his abbreviated big-league season Wednesday in only his 44th game (164 PA). Simpson is not overwhelmed at the plate. He is hitting .296 and making contact. This is who he is, and it really matters in fantasy baseball.
For comparison, Rays SS/2B/3B/OF Jose Caballero leads baseball with 30 stolen bases, achieved over 69 games (225 PA). The versatile Caballero, with a below-average .651 OPS, is hardly any safer than Simpson for playing time, and the Rays may seek a regular upgrade. Regardless, while Caballero steals bases at a higher rate than the other league leaders (Pittsburgh Pirates SS/OF Oneil Cruz, Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.), he isn’t a productive player. Simpson, so far, is more productive, especially lately (.801 OPS since returning to the majors).
While stolen bases are a bigger deal in roto/categories leagues than ESPN standard points formats, it is mildly interesting that we may not see any players reach 50 steals in 2025. Only Caballero is on pace to reach the mark, though Simpson would be there as well had he played more. MLB made noteworthy adjustments in recent years to invite more stolen base interest, and it seemed to work, as Acuna, Cincinnati Reds SS Elly de la Cruz and Los Angeles Dodgers SP/DH/unicorn Shohei Ohtani were among six players to steal more than 50 bases over the past two seasons.
This might make fantasy managers a bit sad, but the league’s overall stolen base rate is down a bit from the 2024 season, from 0.74 steals per game to 0.72. (Ohtani, on pace for 23 steals after swiping 59 bags last year, is a notable faller). There still are players stealing bases out there, and the good news is players are doing it more efficiently than ever. The rate of successful steals is up from 76% to 79%! If Simpson just gets to play, chances are he will run more than anyone else and perhaps lead the sport, even with far less playing time. It would be quite a story.
Don’t be surprised… if Chicago Cubs SP Matthew Boyd is a top-20 hurler
Boyd, 34, earned his eighth win on Tuesday, permitting two runs over seven innings against the Cleveland Guardians. Fantasy managers have made Boyd one of the most added pitchers recently, but he remains available in more than 30% of standard leagues. How could this be? Boyd is the No. 9 starting pitcher on the 30-day Player Rater and No. 18 for the season. In points formats, he is 19th for the season and 12th over the past 30 days, right with Pirates ace RHP Paul scenes.
Perhaps few believed Boyd would stick in Chicago’s rotation after he delivered a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over eight starts for last season’s Guardians, most of the outings of the four- or five-inning variety. The Cubs gave Boyd a two-year, incentive-laden contract with an option year for a third. He has been one of baseball’s — and fantasy’s — top bargains, but some are wary because Boyd is already at 98 2/3 innings, his most since 2019.
This is a different Boyd from his Detroit Tigers days. We recall when Boyd struck out 238 hitters in 2019 but with only nine wins and a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Boyd’s next win matches his career high. He won’t strike out 200 hitters, but a 22.1% rate is solid, ranking 34th among 71 qualified MLB starters. His 5.6% walk rate is 17th. Boyd is throwing his fastball at a career-high speed (93.2 mph), inducing his best swing percentage (51.9%). There is no discussion of an innings limit. This all looks legitimate.
Don’t be surprised… if Los Angeles Angels SP Yusei Kikuchi makes recent ERA/WHIP history
Kikuchi took an annoying no-decision in Atlanta on Wednesday. He left in the sixth inning up 2-0, with two runners on base. Someone else let them score. Myriad Braves went on to score. The Angels lost. Kikuchi’s ERA rose a bit to 2.81, his WHIP remained at 1.37. As a Kikuchi investor in a roto/categories format, I enjoy the solid ERA and the strikeouts. Kikuchi might reach 200 whiffs again! The WHIP, however, and lack of wins are a problem. Kikuchi isn’t the lone reason my team (nine active pitchers) is among the leaders in ERA and near the bottom in WHIP (and wins), but he plays a role!
It turns out that what Kikuchi is doing is quite rare. Chicago White Sox LHP Wilson Alvarez is the lone qualified pitcher since the 1971 season to finish with an ERA on the good side of 3.00 and a WHIP on the wrong side of 1.35. Alvarez walked a league-leading 122 hitters in his noteworthy (and quite fortunate) 1993 season, winning 15 games with a 2.95 ERA (4.24 FIP), but it came with a destructive 1.39 WHIP. I’m old enough that I probably rostered Alvarez in some league that year and couldn’t figure out why I didn’t have the best pitching staff. Go figure.
Kikuchi isn’t quite the same as Alvarez, as he misses more bats and his inefficiency causes him to fail to go deep into games, thus only three wins in 18 starts. Kikuchi is the No. 57 starting pitcher in roto/categories formats, which isn’t great, but he is the No. 28 starter in ESPN standard points formats. Whoa! Big difference! Of course, the league in which I roster Kikuchi is not a points league. Still, I am intrigued. I bet Kikuchi’s ERA rises some (his FIP is 3.79), but his WHIP should fall a bit (it was 1.20 last season). What an odd, but still relevant, combination!
