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The fourth major of the year begins Thursday with the Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
Which players do our golf experts think will win? Where do our betting experts believe there is value? We break down the favorites and much more ahead of the 2025 Open Championship.
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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable
Experts’ picks
Matt Barrie
Rory McIlroy. Why? I started the majors picking Rory to win the career Grand Slam. It feels like a fitting finish to win at home.
Tory Barron
McIlroy. After the U.S. Open, I’ve resigned myself to the fact I know nothing (respectfully, if you picked JJ SPAUN to win it all — no you didn’t). That being said, I’m going with McIlroy to win his sixth major championship. Despite post-Masters win woes, McIlroy showed a return to form at the Scottish Open, tying for second. He’ll muster some Northern Ireland magic to finish the major season hoisting the Claret Jug for the first time since 2014.
Michael Collins
McIlroy. Seven of McIlroy’s past eight rounds of competitive golf have been 68 or better, with three rounds at 65 or better. Of all the players in the top 10 shots gained: tee to green, McIlroy comes into the week in the best form. This win will earn him POY.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Jon rahm. Rahm has been trending in the right direction at the majors, and this seems like a good week for him to get back in the winner’s circle. He has finished inside the top 15 in all three majors, with a T-7 at the U.S. Open most recently. He’s been inside the top 10 in three of the past four Open Championships, and this seems like a good week for him to add a third major.
Andy North
McIlroy. Rory looks like he’s back to being Rory. He will put a ton of pressure on himself at The Open, growing up in that area. I think he will handle it and be our winner.
Mark Schlabach
McIlroy. I wondered if Rory would coast through the rest of the season after completing the career Grand Slam by winning a green jacket at the Masters in April. He seemed to lack much motivation and even admitted it was difficult for him to grind on the range for hours after winning at Augusta National. His form has been better in his past three starts, including a tie for second in last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. I’m sure he’d love to erase his memories of missing the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019, and winning another Claret Jug in his native Northern Ireland would be yet another feather in a Hall of Fame career.
Curtis Strange
Keegan Bradley. Playing great, just won the Travelers. I’m rooting for the story, and Keegan winning, being Ryder Cup captain, would be a hell of a story for The Open and the Ryder Cup.
Pairs uggs
Xander Schauffele. There is something about The Open and Schauffele, who has played some of the most consistent golf at this event over the years, that just seems to fit. No one has defended a major successfully since Brooks Koepka did it at the 2018 PGA Championship, but when the wind or rain picks up this week and Portrush shows more of its teeth, I think Schauffele will be one of the few ready to embrace it.
Betting roundtable
Who is your pick to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Rahm (+1200): High finishes don’t count as wins, but Rahm is one of only two players with Top-15 finishes in each of the past four majors (dating back to last year’s Open); the other is Scottie Scheffler. He’s also finished 7th or better at The Open in three of the last four years, and his T-11th finish here in 2019 doesn’t hurt. It all suggests he could very well secure the third leg of the Slam this week.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): No one brings more emotional weight to Royal Portrush than Rory. It’s his home turf and after a gutting missed cut in 2019, this return is personal. His 2025 form is strong, highlighted by a win at Augusta and elite tee-to-green consistency (5th in the field). He scores high on links tracks and has a long résumé of thriving in wind and rain (Scottish Open, Irish Open, Pebble Beach). His driving accuracy is low, but scrambling and mental toughness balance it. Portrush is a place where narrative and numbers perfectly align.
Anita Marks, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): Rory looked great last week, finishing T2 in Scotland, and he is peaking at the right time. He dominated Royal Portrush at the age of 16, shooting a 61. The one big advantage will be the hometown crowd, which will be cheering for Rory. A win here would get him halfway to a second career Grand Slam — talk about motivation!
Who is your favorite bet to make the Top 10?
Maldonado: Jon rahm (+140).
He has repeatedly proved himself in tough setups (Torrey Pines, Augusta, Muirfield Village). His trajectory, control and power work well in wind, and his Open Championship efforts are hard to ignore with three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts. His 2025 PGA form is mega strong with finishes no worse than T14 in the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open, and he has the mental fire to surge on Sunday.
Marks: Tyrell Hatton (+300).
Hatton is a savvy links specialist, and this tournament is the perfect opportunity for him to win a major. Players on LIV are out of sight out of mind, but Hatton is one for the very few that has remained consistent, especially when playing in majors. He had a T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019, so we know he has what it takes to master this course.
Gordon: Sam Burns (+550).
He’s become a steady presence in majors after struggling earlier in his career. Burns held the outright 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open and was tied for 2nd entering the final round at last year’s Open, both times struggling in the final round through brutal weather conditions. I like the price more than anything at +550.
Maldonado: Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105).
Getting nearly even money for a Top 10 is value. He rounded back into form with three straight Top 20 finishes including back-to-back top 10s at the Travelers and Scottish with elite ball-striking numbers. Aside from bleeding red at the RBC Canadian Open, the strokes gained metrics are there across the board. At Royal Portrush, on home soil, this is a high-floor bet with realistic top-five upside.
Gordon: Scottie Scheffler Low American (+240).
This is the best value I can find on Scheffler, as this is double his price to record a Top-5 finish (+120). Weary of Xander Schauffeleamong others, this is my favorite Scheffler bet with the other two tournament favorites (McIlroy and Rahm) hailing from outside the United States.
Who are you avoiding entirely?
Maldonado: Scottie Schefffler.
It’s purely a value call, not a talent fade. Paying -170 for a Top 10 and getting just +120 for a Top 5 is high risk with not enough reward, especially at a track like Portrush. Yes, he’s still contending while losing strokes putting, which is absurd, but these price points are inflated beyond reasonable risk. I would also bet outrights on other players as is and avoid the “without Scheffler” because his presence isn’t distorting the top of the board enough to justify the premium. If he wins, fine. you lost, like most of the field. But if he doesn’t, you want a full payout not a watered-down number just because you paid to dodge one name.
Gordon: Patrick Cantlay.
His finish position has been worse than his world ranking entering the event in 23 of his last 24 major starts. Cantlay often plays well on typical PGA Tour setups, yet it rarely (if ever) translates to major championship venues, the latest example being missed cuts this year at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?
Maldonado: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+260).
This is where you trade safety for value. His game is tailor-made for links courses — controlled ball flight, elite scrambling and a proven ability to handle tough weather. At +260 for a Top 10, the upside is real, but the Top 20 gives you margin on a player who rarely fades on this side of the pond. If there was ever a time for him to win… it’s here. Though we’ve seen this movie before.
Marks: Ryan Fox outright winner (+6000).
Fox is having a great season with two wins on the PGA Tour. He can grip it and rip it, and has a great short game, which is perfect for a links course. He shot a 66 in Round 1 in Scotland last week. Additionally, Fox ranks 8th in putting average and is 23rd on tour in total strokes gained.
Gordon: Russell Henley outright winner (+6000).
Quietly coming off three straight Top-10 finishes, including two in signature events and another at the U.S. Open, Henley has fully returned to the form he showed before winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. He’s gained strokes around the green in 10 straight starts, an important metric given how small the greens are at Royal Portrush. Henley entered Sunday tied for 2nd at last year’s Open in route to finishing fifth.
Any other bets stand out to you?
Maldonado: Adam Scott Top 20 (+290).
Pure value on experience and ball-striking. He’s played every major links venue over the last two decades and enters with trending tee-to-green form. At Royal Portrush, where creativity and control matter more than power, his tempo and course management give him a clear edge. The short game is a concern, but at this price, you’re betting on sharp irons and veteran savvy doing enough to keep him inside the number. –
Gordon: Xander Schauffele Top 20 (+140).
He has cashed in this market in 13 of the past 14 majors. He’s also never missed the cut in seven career appearances at The Open. After he tied for 8th at the Scottish Open last week, I’ll continue to invest in Xander Top 20s in majors, especially at +140.
