College football impatience index – the clock is ticking on these teams in 2025

College football fans have several unmistakable traits. Patience is not one of them.

Fans and other stakeholders around every program want results without the wait. Their reasoning varies — from long-term history and status, to recent investments, to increased postseason access with a larger College Football Playoff field. Is there a degree of entitlement that triggers impatience in the sport? Absolutely. But college football teams aren’t created equal, and the factors that drive success are pretty clear to those who care the most.

The goal here is to index teams according to impatience entering the 2025 season. Some appear below because they haven’t reached the CFP recently — or at all — despite having the resources to do so.

For years (decades even), a team like Georgia would have appeared below. The Bulldogs couldn’t break through nationally despite baked-in advantages as the only SEC program in a talent-rich state with widespread fan support. Then, coach Kirby Smart came along and delivered back-to-back national titles. Now, Georgia fans are getting impatient for another.

But the Bulldogs have accomplished enough in recent years to stay off of the Impatience Index. Other notable programs, meanwhile, are under pressure to deliver.

I’ve sorted the Impatience Index into four tiers. Let’s get started.

Jump to a tier:
Big money investors | Need a playoff run | Title or bust | Hot seat coaches

Return on investment tier

Coach: Mario Cristobal (22-16 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 10-3, 6-2 in ACC, No. 18 in final AP poll

Last national title: 2001

Last conference title: 2003

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: Miami’s lull without even a conference title remains bewildering for those drawn to college football in the 1980s, when The U sat firmly at the top. But there’s context around a large portion of Miami’s drought, namely that the school fell behind with its program investments. Miami simply wasn’t spending like a national contender, which isn’t good enough, even for a program in a major city, surrounded by top talent. The Hurricanes fell behind rival Florida State, but also ACC programs like Clemson and, at times, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Georgia Tech. But the hiring of Cristobal in December 2021 marked a seismic change.

Despite Cristobal’s ties to the school and the city, he wasn’t going to leave an Oregon program with incredible resources and two recent conference titles for a cash-strapped situation back home. Miami answered those critiques and lured him back with greater resources, which have translated into transfer additions such as quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez. But the Canes have yet to break through on the field under Cristobal, going 6-10 in ACC play during his first two seasons. Last fall, Miami had the nation’s top offense, led by Ward, the eventual No. 1 NFL draft pick, but couldn’t hold a lead at Syracuse and fell out of the ACC championship game (and, essentially, the CFP).

The team once again has a high-priced transfer quarterback addition in Georgia’s Carson Beck, and a roster that, talent-wise, projects among the best in the ACC. Miami’s patience for a CFP appearance should be thin, as there is real pressure on Cristobal to deliver in Year 4.

Coach: Brian Kelly (29-11 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 9-4, 5-3 in SEC, unranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2019

Last conference title: 2019

CFP appearances: One (2019)

Assessing the impatience: LSU is always among the most fascinating programs to evaluate because of its volatility. There have been low moments on the Bayou, both in the program’s long-term history and even more recently. LSU is no stranger to dysfunction, but the potential to not just rise up, but reach the apex of the sport, always exists for the Tigers and their fans, who rightfully demand excellence. Before firing Ed Orgeron in 2021, LSU became the only program with three consecutive coaches — Orgeron, Les Miles and Nick Saban — to win national titles during the BCS/CFP era. Athletic director Scott Woodward fired Orgeron less than two years after he had coached LSU’s best team, the 2019 juggernaut led by Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow at quarterback.

In hiring Kelly, LSU aimed for sustained excellence. The school had never hired such an accomplished head coach, as Kelly twice led Notre Dame to the four-team CFP and won two Division II national titles with Grand Valley State. Kelly helped LSU to the SEC championship in his first season and coached Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels in 2023. But LSU hasn’t reached the CFP nor finished inside the AP top 10 under his leadership. The roster build has been a bit slower than expected, especially at historically strong position groups like defensive back. But LSU brought in a monster transfer class, which included big groups at defensive back and defensive line, and earned ESPN’s top spot as having the best offseason in the FBS. Kelly should have the personnel to at least reach the CFP by the end of Year 4, a point by which each of his three predecessors had won national championships.

“Every program I’ve taken over, I’ve never walked in there and said, ‘We’re winning a championship,'” Kelly told ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. “I want to leave that program in elite status. I’ve done it wherever I’ve been. We’ll do it here. We’ll get this program back to elite status. Everybody’s going to put a time restraint on, but there is really no time restraint. This is about working towards that.”

Coach: Brent Venables (22-17 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 6-7, 2-6 in SEC play, unranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2000

Last conference title: 2020

CFP appearances: Four (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019)

Assessing the impatience: Sooner impatience falls into several buckets. The program is one of the sport’s historic heavyweights, owning seven national championships and 50 conference crowns, including a stretch of 14 straight from 1946 to 1959 that likely will never be matched. More recently, OU won six consecutive Big 12 championships from 2015 to 2020, reaching the four-team CFP four times during that span. What has transpired since coach Lincoln Riley’s shocking exit to USC — two 6-7 seasons, the program’s lowest wins totals since it had three consecutive losing seasons under coach John Blake in the mid-1990s — has left Sooners fans understandably restless. Venables waited longer than most top-rate coordinators to take a head coaching job and returned to Oklahoma with hero status after Riley left. But his homecoming has hit several snags.

Oklahoma has stepped up to help Venables behind the scenes. The school hired Jim Nagy, previously the executive director of the Senior Bowl, to serve as general manager, and built an NFL-style front office around him that includes senior assistant GM Lake Dawson and others. After slipping to 97th nationally in scoring offense last season, OU landed the top available quarterback-coordinator package in John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle from Washington State. The Sooners’ investments also showed up in constructing the 2025 roster, which includes several key retentions and new players such as Mateer, running back Jaydn Ott (Cal) and safety Kendal Daniels (Oklahoma State). Venables has a favorable contract situation, and longtime athletic director Joe Castiglione is retiring from his role during the upcoming school year. Although Venables isn’t entering a CFP-or-bust situation this fall, he must show tangible progress after all the money Oklahoma has put into his program.

Coach: Joey McGuire (23-16 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 8-5, 6-3 in Big 12 play, unranked in final AP poll

Last national title: None

Last conference title: 1994

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: Texas Tech doesn’t have the historical profile to match the other three teams in this tier. The Red Raiders last won a league title 31 years ago, in the old Southwest Conference, and haven’t claimed an outright championship since 1955 in something called the Border Conference. The team has just one 10-win season since 1976, zero AP Top 25 finishes since 2009 and zero AP top-10 finishes in its history. But this is 2025 and the NIL engine has allowed programs like Texas Tech, spurred by deep-pocketed super booster Cody Campbell, to dream bigger. Grander dreams bring less patience, though, and Campbell and the top Texas Tech stakeholders aren’t going to wait around for stronger results. Texas Tech had a monster offseason, addressing both lines with transfers including UCF’s Lee Hunter, Stanford’s David Bailey, Georgia Tech’s Romello Height and North Carolina’s Howard Sampson. McGuire’s staff retention and additions helped Texas Tech earn the No. 2 spot behind LSU in ESPN’s top offseason rankings.

The money pouring into the program makes expectations for 2025 extremely clear.

“To really grow this program, we need to be in AT&T in December,” McGuire told ESPN, referring to the Big 12 championship game. “That’s the last box that we need to check off.”

McGuire mentioned Texas Tech’s softball team, which this spring made its first trip to the Women’s College World Series and played for a national title thanks largely to pitcher NiJaree Canady, a Stanford transfer who became softball’s first million-dollar player. As a top high school coach in Texas, McGuire understands the pressure to win and chooses to embrace it, saying, “How lucky are we to be at a place that you can win? Because there’s places that you are optimistic but you’re not going to win. … I’d rather be at a place that you have the opportunity to win, versus man, you’re just hoping and praying that the ball bounces the right way.”

Texas Tech players share in the urgency, as the team will be very senior-heavy in 2025.

“This is everyone’s last year,” quarterback Behren Morton said. “All the marbles are in the bag.”

Seeking a CFP breakthrough tier

Coach: Billy Napier (19-19 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 8-5, 4-4 in SEC play, unranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2008

Last conference title: 2008

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: Florida’s impatience with Napier rightfully dipped late in 2024, as the team displayed impressive fortitude and growth with a signature win against CFP hopeful Ole Miss and four consecutive victories to cap a season that began ominously. The Gators bring back arguably the nation’s top young offensive backfield in quarterback DJ Lagway and running back Jadan Baugh, as well as national awards candidates like center Jake Slaughter and defensive tackle Caleb Banks. Napier continues to recruit well, as Florida signed ESPN’s No. 10 class for 2025. But when Gator fans zoom out and see a program without an AP top-10 finish or a season of nine or more wins since 2019, and zero playoff berths in the first decade of the CFP, their impatience meter surely will rise. Florida doesn’t have as much long-term elite history as others in the SEC, but the team dominated college football in the 1990s under coach Steve Spurrier, and had two national titles and three AP top-3 finishes under Urban Meyer between 2006 and 2009.

The Gators’ goals for 2025 might not be limited to a CFP appearance, especially with another taxing schedule that includes one of the sport’s toughest four-game stretches from Sept. 13 to Oct. 11 — road games against LSU, Miami and Texas A&M, and a home contest against Texas. Florida also faces Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee later in the fall. However, continued progress toward the playoff is necessary for Napier, whose contract with Florida runs through the 2028 season. The school just won its third men’s basketball national title and competes nationally in many sports. Florida would have reached the 12-team CFP a few times if it had existed earlier, and the team must soon be among the SEC group that competes annually for a spot.

Coach: Lincoln Riley (26-14 overall, fourth season)

2024 results: 7-6, 4-5 in Big Ten play, unranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2004

Last conference title: 2017

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: From 2002 to 2008, USC and Florida were college football’s most dominant teams, combining for four national championships. Coach Pete Carroll’s Trojans didn’t finish outside the AP top 4 in any of those seasons, going 82-9 during that span. Although the program had backslid before Carroll’s arrival from the NFL, USC had produced other elite stretches, including four national championships and 16 consecutive AP top-20 finishes under coaches John McKay and John Robinson from 1967 to 1982. The Trojans haven’t come anywhere near sustained success since Carroll left. They made a string of insular coaching hires — including Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian, who are better and more mature leaders now than they were when they guided USC — and bad athletic director choices. The program fell behind in facilities and overall infrastructure, which allowed Oregon to emerge as the top West Coast power and Washington to make two CFP appearances.

“You’re rebuilding a program, albeit a blue blood program, which has its challenges, no matter what,” Riley told ESPN. “Then you add in all that’s changed around us for everybody on top of that. It’s been a unique time to do it.”

USC’s bold hire of Riley was supposed to be the inflection point, showing that the program had a willingness to bring in an accomplished outsider — and pay big for coaches and players. Riley led Oklahoma to four, including three consecutive, CFP appearances. But after a debut in 2022 where the Trojans reached the Pac-12 championship behind Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, USC is just 15-11. Last season was bookended by wins against SEC opponents LSU and Texas A&M but didn’t go well in the Big Ten, especially away from home, where the Trojans lost four games by seven points or fewer. USC hired Chad Bowden from Notre Dame to be its general manager and has built out more of a front office to oversee personnel, which has shifted away from the portal and toward high school recruiting. The team has ESPN’s No. 1 recruiting class for 2026. Riley’s massive buyout likely provides job security beyond 2025, but he needs to start delivering CFP appearances soon.

“We’re right on the doorstep of having a really great run, not just this year, but looking forward,” Riley said. “The things that it takes to be really good, there’s just too many good signs and good things, and too many good people on staff and the roster ….”

Championship or bust tier

play

Why Penn State has the best shot at winning the CFP

Heather Dinich and Harry Douglas explain why they believe Penn State has the best chance at winning its first college football national title since 1986.

Coach: James Franklin (101-42 overall, 12th season)

2024 results: 13-3, 8-1 in Big Ten play, CFP semifinalist, No. 5 in final AP poll

Last national title: 1986

Last conference title: 2016

CFP appearances: One (2024)

Assessing the impatience: Penn State isn’t the only college team pining for championships this season. Others have waited longer and endured more prolonged struggles than the Nittany Lions. But what team has accomplished more in the past eight seasons without winning a title? Franklin has had five 10-win seasons and five AP top-10 finishes. He has repeatedly beaten the teams he should beat, including Penn State’s first two opponents in its CFP debut, SMU and Boise State. While most of last season’s CFP participants are replacing starting quarterbacks and large NFL draft classes, Penn State returns QB1 Drew Allar, the nation’s top running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a defense with national awards candidates at all three levels. Penn State has the most win-now roster in the Big Ten.

When the NCAA imposed historic sanctions on Penn State before the 2012 season, some initial predictions stated the program wouldn’t recover for a decade. But Franklin won the Big Ten just four years later in his second season as Lions coach. The quick recovery perhaps created unrealistic expectations in Happy Valley, but after being so close for so long, Penn State must deliver in the biggest moments, which have hurt Franklin so often since 2016. In Franklin’s defense, he hasn’t often entered the season with the Big Ten’s top roster, but Ohio State and Oregon are replacing a combined 24 NFL draft picks. (Penn State had five, including No. 3 selection Abdul Carter.) Penn State isn’t a program that enters every season with a championship-or-bust mentality, but it certainly applies for 2025.

Franklin is 4-20 against teams ranked in the AP top 10.

“I’m excited about the opportunity to change that narrative, and I know so are our players, but there’s also recognizing that 99% of the programs would love to be the position that we are,” Franklin told ESPN. “You have to take it as a sign of respect and a compliment, and you have to take it as a challenge. I think we’re going to be in a really good position to change the narrative. And the good thing is it’s all up to us. We’re in total control.”

Coach must deliver soon tier

Coach: Mike Norvell (33-27 overall, sixth season)

2024 results: 2-10, 1-7 in ACC, not ranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2013

Last conference title: 2023

CFP appearances: One (2014)

Assessing the impatience: Florida State fans have really been through it since the team’s last national title. They saw the end to Jimbo Fisher’s tenure, where the coach wanted more resources and left for a deeper-pocketed program (Texas A&M) with nowhere near FSU’s historic level of success. They went through the Willie Taggart disaster and a tough start to Norvell’s tenure. Then, the team started to cook, mining the transfer portal for game-changing players. In 2023, Florida State seemed truly back, bullying through the ACC. The Seminoles won the league title and finished 13-0, but quarterback Jordan Travis’ broken leg led to a CFP snub and nothing good happened in the ensuing year. FSU endured its first 10-loss season in 50 years, and a 52-3 setback against Notre Dame tied for the worst loss in team history.

Norvell is back for a pivotal sixth season, leading a coaching staff with two new notable coordinators in Gus Malzahn (offense) and Tony White (defense). FSU’s high school recruiting efforts are improving, but the team once again will rely on a group of transfers, including quarterback Tommy Castellanos (Boston College). Norvell is 71-42 as a coach, and was among Alabama’s initial targets to replace Nick Saban, but he has more losing seasons than winning seasons in Tallahassee. Most coaches don’t survive what happened last fall. Norvell doesn’t need to deliver a CFP appearance this season, but meaningful improvement is needed with a schedule bookended by Alabama and Florida and featuring Miami and Clemson in ACC play.

Coach: Hugh Freeze (11-14 overall, third season)

2024 results: 5-7, 2-6 in SEC, not ranked in final AP poll

Last national title: 2010

Last conference title: 2013

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: Freeze is the type of coach who generates a range of reactions, mostly for things he has said or done away from the football field. He also made sense for Auburn when the school hired him in late 2022. Despite an initial SEC exile, Freeze was always coming back to the conference, where he recruited well and won big at times with Ole Miss, even taking down Nick Saban’s Alabama teams in 2014 and 2015. The only unknown was which SEC team would give him a second chance. Auburn made sense after the Bryan Harsin tenure went sideways. The team needed a coach who knew the SEC, could win recruiting battles and capitalize on the NIL resources that Auburn assembled. Freeze came to the Plains with a 103-47 record and a track record of big-time recruits and exciting offenses.

But his first two seasons have been rough, not only in SEC play (5-11), but outside of it as Auburn endured home losses to New Mexico State in 2023 and to Cal last year. Quarterback Diego Pavia has led New Mexico State and Vanderbilt into Jordan-Hare Stadium in each of the past two years and beaten Freeze’s teams. The areas where Freeze traditionally thrives, particularly offense, haven’t truly taken off. Auburn ranks 70th nationally in scoring and 89th in passing yards during Freeze’s tenure. Freeze flexed his recruiting reach with the 2025 class, which ranked No. 6 nationally, and has made clear upgrades at spots like wide receiver. But Auburn’s 2026 class doesn’t currently rank in ESPN’s national top 25. His situation also isn’t helped by the success of Auburn’s other coaching target, Lane Kiffin, who is 21-5 with two AP top-11 finishes during the past two seasons. Freeze understands the SEC climate and that three seasons without a major bowl appearance or a CFP push could mean the end. Auburn hasn’t won more than six games since 2019 and expects better, given its investment.

Coach: Luke Fickell (13-13 overall, third season)

2024 results: 5-7, 3-6 in Big Ten, not ranked in final AP poll

Last national title: None

Last conference title: 2012

CFP appearances: None

Assessing the impatience: Wisconsin is generally a patient place. Fans are willing to give coaches time there, at least when they have clear visions for their teams. In 1990, Barry Alvarez took over a Wisconsin program that had won just nine games in the previous four seasons. Alvarez went 1-10 in his debut and had two more losing campaigns before breaking through in 1993 with his first Rose Bowl team. Fickell inherited a much healthier program after the 2022 season, as Wisconsin had made 21 consecutive bowl appearances and finished outside of the final AP Top 25 just three times between 2004 and 2017. He was hired with a clear purpose — to get a somewhat stale program under Paul Chryst into the expanded CFP, which Fickell had reached with Cincinnati in 2021. His hire represented a detour from the Wisconsin way, which Bret Bielema continued after Alvarez and Chryst built upon. If Fickell could elevate Wisconsin, even with a different style and philosophy, most Badgers fans were willing to go along with him.

The problem is that Wisconsin has gotten worse under Fickell, and last fall missed the postseason for the first time since 2001. Wisconsin also doesn’t look like Wisconsin with its approaches toward scheme and roster-building. Fickell’s attempt to bring the Air Raid to Madison with coordinator Phil Longo went poorly, as many Big Ten coaches predicted it would. Wisconsin signed the No. 25 recruiting class in 2024 and the No. 31 class earlier this year, but it has largely looked farther away for prospects. Three of the top four in-state prospects for 2024 signed with Penn State, and the top two in-state prospects in 2025 signed with Notre Dame. Fickell might not face immediate hot-seat pressure this fall, especially since athletic director Chris McIntosh hired him. But he needs better results on the field and also must show a product that better connects with the Wisconsin tradition.

“Those things that they’ve always kind of prided themselves on, look, I believe in them, too,” Fickell told ESPN. “Tough, physical, whether that’s the way you play the game or run the ball or the way you play offense, but it’s also about the way you live. And I think that’s where, in my two years, a little bit of disconnect has been. Not pointing a finger at the way we played offense, but to say that’s the way you want to be and that’s the way you want to live, but then on a daily basis, truthfully, not play and try to establish things that way, it had some mixed messages.

“It’s not the kids’ fault. It’s kind of the whole encompassing idea change and a philosophy change to get back to the things that have made Wisconsin special.”

Coach: Kalen DeBoer (9-4 overall, second season)

2024 results: 9-4, 5-3 in SEC, No. 17 in final AP poll

Last national title: 2020

Last conference title: 2023

CFP appearances: Eight (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023)

Assessing the impatience: There are few places, if any, across the college football landscape where patience runs thinner than at Alabama. Any season that doesn’t end with a Crimson Tide championship (SEC or national) will result in some degree of discord. Even Bear Bryant and Nick Saban, two of the sport’s most successful and iconic coaches, saw and felt the criticism when seasons didn’t meet expectations. DeBoer didn’t have history on his side when he took over for arguably the sport’s greatest coach ever in Saban. He recorded a signature win early on against Georgia, but then lost the following week at Vanderbilt, which had lost 23 consecutive games to the Tide. After opening his Alabama tenure with four straight wins, DeBoer didn’t win consecutive games again until the Tide blew out Missouri, LSU and Mercer, only to lose inexplicably at Oklahoma in a game where they didn’t reach the end zone. A bowl loss to a significantly undermanned Michigan team amplified the angst around DeBoer.

Should Alabama fans be a bit more patient with DeBoer, or anyone who took over for Saban? Probably. But it doesn’t work that way at a program with the most CFP appearances (8) and six national titles since the 2009 season, three times as many as any other program during that span. DeBoer has more ownership of the roster, and has had time to develop Ty Simpson and the other quarterbacks to take over. He brought back longtime offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and kept the rest of his key staff members. The Tide must perform better away from home, as they visit Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, Florida State and Auburn. DeBoer likely doesn’t need a title to ensure a third season in Tuscaloosa, but if Alabama misses the CFP again, any remaining patience among the Tide faithful will vanish.