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Bradford Doolittle
For all the work we do in setting up and covering the MLB trade deadline, the transaction-related activity in some years is a little underwhelming. That was not the case in 2025.
According to my tracking mechanisms, the wild 2025 deadline featured 92 veteran trade candidates on new teams and, likewise, 92 prospects headed to new organizations, seeking their big league opportunity. After all that, we turn our attention to reassessing the new baseball landscape.
This is what we do with every edition of Stock Watch, but there is never as much mystery in the outcomes as there is after a heavy period of roster movement, which yields my two favorite Stock Watch editions: after the in-season trade deadline (now) and during the hot stove season, after the offseason’s heaviest waves of transactions are completed.
As we did last year at this time, we will home in on each team’s stretch run. This looks different for contenders than those looking to the future, but even for the noncontenders, it’s about what is left to accomplish on the field in 2025 — and how those aims might be achieved.
Jump to a tier:
Top-tier contenders | Second-tier contenders | Teams just hanging on
Teams looking ahead | The Colorado Rockies
Top-tier contenders
Teams with a 90% or better shot at the playoffs
Win average: 95.9 (Last month: 87.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 61.7%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 2.1%)
Lingering concern: Middle-of-the-order power
The Brewers have soared to the top spot of Stock Watch with startling velocity. You might view Milwaukee’s deadline approach as a bit passive, but when you’ve gotten so far by finding solutions within your organization, why change? The Brewers don’t have many obvious needs. Even the shortcoming noted above was listed only because no roster is perfect. But though Milwaukee ranks 15th in isolated power for the season, its offense has been baseball’s hottest, joining a run prevention crew that was already stellar.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 96.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 13.6% (Last: 12.6%)
Lingering concern: Front-line pitching
This seems like a big-ticket concern, and it is. Chicago’s rotation and bullpen have been more passable than good this season, at least when the offense has been rolling up big numbers. The club’s passive deadline approach didn’t upgrade that outlook. What the staff needed was some dynamism, whether one of the top closers who moved or a top-of-the-rotation starter. Given Kyle Tucker‘s walk-year contract status, a more all-in mindset was justified.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 101.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 99.7%)
Champions: 15.4% (Last: 24.0%)
Lingering concern: Pitching health
What else could it be? All those hurlers who seemed to comprise a super team type of depth chart in the offseason still exist. But the Dodgers’ dizzying turnstile of pitchers going on and off the injured list has never let up. Given what happens to pitchers once they join the Dodgers, maybe L.A. was doing the rest of the majors a small favor by mostly standing pat at the deadline. With the Padres positioned to push the Dodgers to the finish in the National League West, the stretch run can’t just be about rehabbing pitchers for October, either.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 97.9, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.2% (Last: 99.8%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 14.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive consistency
When it comes to the overall pecking order, Detroit has come back to the pack. The Tigers focused their deadline work on the pitching staff, to mixed results. Yet, the Tigers’ offensive regression has been the primary culprit for their recent dip. Detroit is deep in prospects but has a right-now opportunity that doesn’t seem like it has been maximized. If Detroit returns to its early-season offensive exploits, though, it won’t matter.
Win average: 92.7 (Last: 93.5, 5th)
In the playoffs: 96.8% (Last: 93.8%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 7.6%)
Lingering concern: What about Andrew Painter?
After the Phillies’ deadline pickups of Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, this is their first-world dilemma. They don’t need Painter, the talented righty who has been in the minors all season after returning from injury. His recent outings have been solid, but he’s still not putting up his pre-injury strikeout numbers. He’s a secret weapon at this point. Painter might not appear in the regular season but make the postseason roster anyway.
Win average: 90.7 (Last: 86.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 92.9% (Last: 72.7%)
Champions: 5.3% (Last: 1.8%)
Lingering concern: Anthony Santander
The Jays didn’t acquire Duran, but they made a couple of key bullpen pickups in Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland. We’ll see if that suffices. The other big need was a middle-of-the-order bat, a void Toronto thought it filled when it signed Santander. Santander has been out since the end of May and contributed little before that. The Blue Jays need Santander’s recovery to pick up and for him to be a thumper.
Second-tier contenders
Teams with playoff odds between 40% and 89%
Win average: 90.2 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 89.0% (Last: 41.3%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 1.1%)
Lingering concern: History
Sure, a future All-Star Game might be half-populated with one-time San Diego prospects, but for now, A.J. Preller’s machinations have eliminated any glaring holes on his roster. The depth after the active-26 group isn’t great, so health is crucial. But as constructed, the Padres are as well-situated for the postseason as anyone. They, along with Seattle and Milwaukee, will try to snap a zero-for-eternity title drought. Any of the three could do it.
Win average: 90.1 (Last: 89.4, 7th)
In the playoffs: 89.4% (Last: 75.7%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 3.2%)
Lingering concern: Juan Soto
The Mets didn’t address their rotation at the deadline, but added enough to the relief staff that it’s not hard to lay out an October blueprint for a bullpen-heavy pitching staff. As for Soto, it’s perhaps not fair to call him a concern. This hasn’t been his best season, but it has been a good season, at least by the standards of most players. But Soto at his .300/.400/.600 best can carry a team, and as the Mets try to emerge from the crowded field of contenders, the time is coming for him to do it.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 94.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 88.0% (Last: 98.5%)
Champions: 6.1% (Last: 8.9%)
Lingering concern: How much Yordan Alvarez will the Astros get?
It has been a lost season for Alvarez, who has been out since early May because of a hand injury. Reportedly, Alvarez has been ramping up his activity and should return at some point. But can he be more than a marginal upgrade? Despite the Astros’ deadline pickups, their once-mighty offense won’t be an October threat — if Houston gets that far — unless Alvarez is ready to rake. As the Astros have come back to the pack in the American League West, their offense has been the coldest in baseball. Alvarez is their best hope of getting back to at least average.
Win average: 88.9 (Last: 79.8, 19th)
In the playoffs: 87.6% (Last: 17.8%)
Champions: 5.5% (Last: 0.3%)
Lingering concern: Starting rotation
This team makes a lot more sense if you plug a true No. 2 (or a co-No. 1) in the rotation next to Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are playing so well it seems greedy to quibble, but what will this look like in the playoffs? Some teams tread water with the rotation and ride the bullpen in October. Boston’s bullpen has been solid, but it seems like the Red Sox will need more balance. Boston needs big finishes from every starter not named Crochet. And Crochet, too.
Win average: 88.8 (Last: 92.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 87.2% (Last: 95.8%)
Champions: 8.0% (Last: 12.8%)
Lingering concern: Run prevention
With all of their bullpen pickups, the Yankees have set themselves up for the postseason, but they’ve got to get there first. New York still leads the AL in run prevention, but it has been two months since the Yankees have played like a playoff team. The rotation and bullpen have struggled, but so too has the mistake-prone defense. New York’s power-based offense is dangerous, especially when Aaron Judge is healthy, but the Yankees aren’t going to bludgeon their way back to the World Series.
Win average: 86.8 (Last: 85.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 70.4% (Last: 66.5%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 2.4%)
Lingering concern: Offensive regression
Getting Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez back in the same lineup is a coup, and there’s no doubt the Mariners’ offensive profile has improved. But it’s highly unlikely that what we’ll see from Raleigh and Suarez over the rest of the season will match what they’ve done to this point. It’s not saying they’ll collapse but to underscore how their output has been off the charts. Seattle will need plenty of production in addition to that duo, and the Mariners are well-positioned to get it.
Win average: 84.1 (Last: 81.1, 17th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 27.3%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.5%)
Lingering concern: Bullpen
The Rangers’ offense remains confounding, but lately it has been so consistently productive that it has fueled Texas’ resurgence in the AL West race. The rotation remains the standout unit, especially with the addition of Merrill Kelly. Still, though newcomers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton help, you can’t help but look at the prospects it took to acquire Kelly and wonder how much that offer could have been tweaked for Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran.
Teams just hanging on
Teams on the “miracles do happen” tier
Win average: 82.3 (Last: 82.5, 15th)
In the playoffs: 12.3% (Last: 19.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
Hope for a run: Powerhouse rotation
This was going to be the case even without the addition of Zack Littell during what was an odd deadline for the Reds, who reinforced areas of strength without addressing areas of greatest need. But with Hunter Greene nearing his return, if he, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo all finish strong, the Reds will be a force down the stretch.
Win average: 81.8 (Last: 84.4, 14th)
In the playoffs: 9.4% (Last: 35.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 1.2%)
Hope for a run: Exploding stars
The Giants’ subtraction at the deadline wasn’t quite a white flag, but it was a recognition that the once-promising season had petered out. Still, with the Giants off the radar, you can see that each unit features at least one All-Star-level player: Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and dynamic new closer Randy Rodriguez. The roster is thinner, but maybe the Giants have another run in them.
Win average: 80.9 (Last: 76.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 12.5% (Last: 5.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Belief
Some of the many teams in baseball’s wide midsection looked at their mediocrity as an excuse to punt. The Royals looked at it as an opportunity to have some fun. Kansas City was 39-46 at the end of June. Now, the Royals, in Boston facing one of the teams they are chasing in the wild-card race, are one of the AL’s hottest teams. Injuries and underperformance have hampered Kansas City for most of the season, but the front office believed in the group enough to address the holes in a meaningful way. It’s not fancy. It’s just trying.
Win average: 80.3 (Last: 88.2, 8th)
In the playoffs: 10.2% (Last: 82.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 4.5%)
Hope for a run: It can’t get worse?
The Rays are really hard to pin down. They exit the deadline as baseball’s coldest team. They aren’t out of the race in terms of record or games behind, but more because of trajectory. That downward trend was neither helped nor harmed by a deadline strategy that was an odd mix of adding and subtracting. Even the addition of the dynamic Jax is a mixed bag, given it took Taj Bradley to get him.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 85.5, 13th)
In the playoffs: 2.6% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 1.0%)
Hope for a run: There’s always another next year
The Cardinals’ slide, combined with their deadline-related offloading, has them on more of a path to challenge the Pirates for last than the Reds for third. And wasn’t that the design all along? It’s too bad St. Louis played well early this season, or it might have gone into full reset mode earlier, though all of those no-trade clauses would have made it difficult. This is a proud franchise, but this season has been a head-scratcher. If, from the end of last season, the aim of the organization was to maximize its chances of winning in 2025, the Cardinals could have mounted a sustained run. And it’s hard to see what would have been lost in the effort.
Win average: 79.3 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 6.5% (Last: 8.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Hope for a run: Jose Ramirez
The Guardians underwent a soft unload at the deadline, trading franchise stalwart Shane Bieber to Toronto. Same old, same old for this franchise. The good part of that stick-to-the-plan organizational cornerstone is that it also encompasses keeping the great Ramirez, who shows zero signs of decline in his 13th season. He might be even better than ever, and if Ramirez were to finish on a massive heater and lead the Guardians into the playoffs on a miracle run, Aaron Judge’s injury problems and Cal Raleigh’s possible regression open the door for Ramirez to win his first MVP.
Teams looking ahead to 2026 and beyond
Playing out the string and hoping for better luck next time
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 69.7, 26th)
In the playoffs: 1.6% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Dig that pitching
The Marlins are really fun to watch, and have been for some time. After a weekend spent throttling the Yankees, it seems like others are taking notice. A true playoff push would involve a really unlikely acceleration of this surge, mostly because none of the current six playoff teams in the NL seems likely to collapse. That doesn’t mean the stifling Marlins rotation can’t hit the hot stove season with momentum, and focus the front office’s offseason plan on adding offense. Also note: The playoff-bound Tigers were in this tier in last season’s edition of this Stock Watch. You never know.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 82.4, 16th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.5%)
Remaining objective: See what’s what with Jordan Lawlar
It has been a disappointing season for Arizona. After lofty preseason expectations, injuries poked a hole in the Diamondbacks’ contention bubble, and an aggressive offloading deadline sucked out the rest of the air. Not that GM Mike Hazen did the wrong thing; it’s just a very different place than we thought Arizona was headed. The departure of Eugenio Suarez is tough, but at least Arizona can take an extended look at Lawlar at the hot corner — if he can get healthy, which isn’t a given. It has been that kind of season.
Win average: 76.1 (Last: 79.7, 20th)
In the playoffs: 1.3% (Last: 18.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Remaining objective: Learn everybody’s name
Some saw the Twins’ “everything must go” deadline approach as malpractice, probably more driven by money than winning. Others saw it as smart and a rapid accumulation of young prospect talent. The two conclusions aren’t mutually exclusive. It depends on how quickly the Twins can reconstruct their bullpen and how many of the newbies pan out.
Win average: 76.0 (Last: 76.3, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 1.1% (Last: 6.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: To keep trying
The Angels’ deadline behavior suggests they see themselves in the tier above this. The numbers don’t agree that that is likely, but what is lost by the attempt? The Angels have exceeded tepid expectations for the most part. You wonder, given the need for an unusual leap from here, what sector of the Angels’ roster might be situated to fuel such a rise.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 80.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 11.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.4%)
Remaining objective: Get to the offseason
Atlanta’s season has been an exercise in waiting for a Braves surge that never happened. Underperformance put Atlanta in a hole and a worsening injury picture sealed its fate. Some hard questions will need to be answered in the offseason. You can blame injuries, but this season, after last season, constitutes an ugly trend.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 71.1, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Play the kids
The names you want to see as much as possible from here: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Samuel Basallo … just turn them loose and see what it looks like. That’s what this deadline was all about, wasn’t it?
Win average: 69.9 (Last: 71.8, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Help Paul Skenes to a Cy Young
Give Pirates fans something to hang their horizontal-striped hats on. Give Skenes some support, allow him to finish strong and see if he can beat the NL’s other leading hopefuls despite a lack of high-stakes action. The Pirates haven’t had a Cy Young Award-winner since Doug Drabek … in 1990.
Win average: 69.5 (Last: 65.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Finish strong
Sure, this sounds like a generic, lame goal for the rest of the season. But the Athletics have been solid and fun to watch for long stretches of the season. A few weeks of historically awful pitching killed hopes of real competitiveness, but the A’s have responded nicely in the weeks since that slump. The deadline pickup of Leo De Vries only sharpens the anticipation of what’s to come. Keep the good tidings coming headed into the offseason.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 68.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Develop some kind of foothold
The Nationals have me confounded. They have some clear reasons to be excited, led by James Wood. But they’ve been trying to piece together a rebuild for a long time and show no signs of coming out of it. Rather than showing positive strides like the team after them in this Stock Watch, the Nationals have trended ice cold on both sides of the ball as we’ve gotten deeper into the season. They fired their brain trust, which might have been necessary, but it only intensified the problem of figuring out what this team is or where it’s headed.
Win average: 62.1 (Last: 56.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Remaining objective: Keep it going
The White Sox might lose 100 games again, but they might not. Seems like damning with faint praise, but given where Chicago was earlier this season, much less a year ago, it seems like a minor miracle. The exciting part is that the younger the White Sox lineup has gotten, the better it has played. Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Chase Meidroth have played key roles, and the White Sox are getting good results from other teams’ castoffs. The newest project is deadline pickup Curtis Mead, who generated so much excitement for the Rays in spring training.
The Colorado Rockies
The horror!
Win average: 44.3 (Last: 41.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
When will it end? Could be sooner than you think
First, it’s not a given that a team gets its own class in this Stock Watch edition. You really have to set yourself apart. The White Sox did it last season, and the Rockies are doing it now. Colorado has picked up the pace, especially on offense, so it is no longer a certainty that the Rockies will dip below Chicago’s record-setting 2024 thud. And the one-year vibe shift in Chicago would be a source of encouragement as well. At the same time … the White Sox had a plan.
