The WTA Montreal Open has been a wonderful tournament thus far, and I want to apologize for missing several days. I’ve been dealing with a potential third bout of cancer with my dog, and it’s been super rough for me. So, I do apologize for the missed days, and I hope this mega column more than makes up for it. Here are my best bets for all four WTA Montreal quarterfinal matches.
WTA Montreal Open
Kostyuk – Rybakina: Time 00:00
H2H: 1-2
Marta Kostyuk and Elena Rybakina have three previous matches, two of which were played on a hardcourt. Though the two are evenly split on a hardcourt, Rybakina’s victory on clay gives her the series edge. Rybakina last made the semifinals in Montreal just two years ago, and her hardcourt play in 2025 strongly suggests that’s a possibility. Rybakina already has one title this year from Strasbourg, but Kostyuk hasn’t won a tournament since 2023.
Best Bet to Make
If we’re looking strictly at hardcourt stats, then Kostyuk comes up short against Rybakina. Not only does Rybakina have more experience on hardcourt, but she also has roughly the same number of losses, while also having nearly 50 more wins. Rybakina is not only the favorite in this match, but most outlets believe she will win it in less than 2.5 sets. Pinnacle is even offering under 21.5 games at 1.9, and they also offer 1.55 on Rybakina winning in less than 2.5 sets.
That being said, Rybakina winning under 21.5 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rybakina winning under 21.5 games @1.9 @Pinnacle
MBoko – Bouzas cool: team 01:30
H2H: 0-0
Victoria Mboko and Jessica Bouzas-Maneiro will meet for the first time in Montreal. Bouzas-Maneiro will be the elder stateswoman in this matchup, and that’s despite her being just 22 herself! There’s no doubt that Mboko is immensely talented, and the future of Canadian tennis. After beating Coco Gauff in her last round at Montreal, many are going to anticipate a letdown game. Bouzas-Maneiro has had a fine tournament, but Mboko has taken the more difficult path to the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
Mboko is the favorite in this match because it takes place on hardcourt. Mboko has thrived in hardcourt matches in 2025, going 16-2. Bouzas-Maneiro is paltry 7-6. Mboko also has two tournament victories on the surface, even though both were ITF tournaments. Either way, Mboko has five tournament titles in 2025, and Bouzas-Maneiro has a giant goose egg when it comes to her total number of tournament titles on the year. Even within her last ten matches, Mboko only lost to bigger names outside of her Wimbledon match against Priscilla Hon.
That being said, Gradually winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gradually Winning 2: 0 @ 1st 1,85 Latest
Keys – Tauson: Time 00:00
H2H: 0-1
Madison Keys and Clara Tauson are the featured match of this article… is what I would have said if Svitolina and Osaka didn’t have seven prior matches, with an eighth scheduled. Keys is one of the favorites to win this tournament, and she’s the highest-ranking player left. Keys and Tauson met earlier this year for a quarterfinal on a hardcourt in Auckland, New Zealand. Tauson won the match in straight sets, but the second set went to a tie-break, and the match was extremely competitive the whole time. While this is Tauson’s first go in Montreal, Keys reached the final year back in 2016, ultimately losing to Simona Halep in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
At the end of the day, both of these women are talented hardcourt players. Tauson has a 2:1 ratio of wins vs losses on a hardcourt for her career, and Keys is very nearly there herself, but with almost triple the number of matches played on the surface. The books have Tauson as a slight underdog, and I do agree. The numbers warrant Keys being the favorite, but Tauson’s previous victory plus her overall experience clearly indicate that winning is more than possible for Tauson this time around.
That being said, Keys winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Keys winning @1.75 @Betfair
Svitolina – Osaka: Time 01:30
H2H: 3-4
Elina Svitolina and Naomi Osaka’s eighth career match means this is our featured match for Best Bets. Even more impressive is the fact that every single one of their previous matches took place on a hardcourt, two of them were at a Major, and three of them were in the quarterfinals or later. Both women are 14-5 on hardcourt this year. In 2018, Svitolina managed to reach the semifinals here in Montreal before losing to Sloane Stephens. Both ladies also have a clay tournament victory this year, as well.
Best Bet to Make
Despite having a winning record against Svitolina on hardcourt, and winning their last two matches in straight sets, Osaka is the underdog in this match. Osaka and Svitolina are 7-3 in their last ten matches, and both of them won eight of those ten matches in straight sets. I think this match ends with Osaka winning. I’m taking Osaka straight in this match, as Unibet has her at 2.28, and that’s good enough for me. I think Osaka has proven that she can handle the challenge Svitolina brings, and she has recent wins against her, as well.
That being said, winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: winning @1.62 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
