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Tim Bontemps
ESPN released its NBA Summer Forecast this week, breaking down everything that could happen across the league, from awards ballots, to championship predictions, to turmoil and turnarounds across the league.
Our staff voted on where all 30 NBA teams could land in the end-of-season standings, a snapshot of how the Eastern and Western Conferences might shake out. However, a consensus view isn’t necessarily the correct one. (Case in point, our awards forecast for 2024-25 went 0-for-6.)
With that in mind, here’s a look at five teams that could exceed their forecast win totals for this season, as well as five that could fall short of the mark next spring.
Five to exceed expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City became just the 22nd team in league history to win at least 65 games. Of those, only two franchises have gone on to match or surpass that total the following season: the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively) and the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (67, 73 and 67 wins, respectively).
The other teams to win at least 65 games in a season saw their win total drop by an average of more than seven games the following year. Only once (the Warriors in 2015-16) did a team either meet or improve on its win total from the season before.
Why could the defending champs buck this trend? It’s the combination of an even weaker Eastern Conference following star injuries in Indiana and Boston (the Thunder went 29-1 against the conference last season), a fully returning roster that should continue improving, and more time on the court for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein after the duo missed a combined 75 games last season. When either big man was available, OKC had a staggering 59-10 record — a 70-win pace.
Will OKC become the third team to win 70 games? Don’t bet on it, but the Thunder could easily have the league’s best record and become the third team to win at least 65 in back-to-back seasons. There’s a reason that coaches, scouts and executives ESPN has spoken to this summer aren’t betting against a Thunder repeat.
The Clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The Clippers surprised last season with 50 wins after being projected as a borderline play-in team. Paul George had signed with the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard played just 37 games, underscoring the job coach Tyronn Lue did with the roster throughout the year.
This summer, the Clippers turned Norman PowellAmir Coffey, Ben Simmons and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins and Brook Lopezmaking LA one of the NBA’s deepest teams and earning praise from rival scouts and executives for their offseason maneuvers.
This roster is almost the polar opposite of what OKC has put together: Only three Clippers rotation players are under 30, and none is under 27, but the Clippers can combat the age and injury risks by leaning into their coaching and depth. That should allow them to push on and exceed last year’s win total.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Like the Clippers, the Warriors are projected right at their win total from last season and have an older roster (although we are projecting out a roster that is currently incomplete, as Golden State waits for a resolution to the Jonathan Kuminga restricted free agency showdown).
This pick is a bet on the evolution of the Stephen Curry–Jimmy Butler III partnership. Amid all the Butler drama from last season, Golden State went 22-5 in the 27 games Curry and Butler played together. Yes, there’s plenty of age and injury risk (including the eventual additions of Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton IIall of whom seem set to join Golden State once the Kuminga situation is sorted out).
But as long as Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are relatively healthy, this feels like a good bet to go over.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Speaking of Butler, it might be a surprise to see his former team sitting here. Amid Butler trade drama, Miami had an uninspiring 37-45 season last year, making a play-in tournament appearance as a 10th seed before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
But Miami added Powell — a 21.8 point-per-game scorer last season with the Clippers — which should help the Heat’s 21st-ranked offense. The Heat were also 14-28 in clutch games last season, the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA. That, plus a weakened East, leaves Miami as a strong bet to exceed their forecast.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
Toronto went 30-52 last season while doing everything it could to improve its draft positioning, and with Brandon Ingram not playing a second with this group after a midseason trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It’s difficult to see a scenario where the Raptors are in this sort of zone from a wins standpoint — especially in the East — barring a massive rash of injuries to the roster.
When the Raptors began tearing down this roster a couple of years ago under then-lead executive Masai Ujiri, it was meant to be a quick flip back toward contention. The moves the team has made since — including trading for, and extending, Ingram — all play into that belief. Teams don’t enter the season in the luxury tax, like Toronto is, and expect to miss the play-in.
Five to fall short
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has surpassed 51 wins just twice in franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, Minnesota reached its second straight West finals but won 49 games and finished sixth in the standings.
This is a Timberwolves team that lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, requiring youngsters such as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to pick up a much bigger load while still leaning heavily on Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If either aging veteran misses any time, the Timberwolves don’t have a clear answer to replace them. Naz Reidwho got a five-year, $125 million deal to come back as a free agent this summer, isn’t strong enough defensively to make up for Gobert’s absence, and last year’s No. 8 pick, Rob Dillinghamremains a huge question mark in his ability to eventually take over for Conley.
Minnesota, Behind Anthony Edwards, Julius Randlea flexible roster and Chris Finch’s coaching, will still be a difficult out next spring. But until then, given the strength of the West and the questions on the roster, improving from last year’s win total could prove difficult.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
It was a magical season last year for the Pistons, who went from 14 to 44 wins, saw Cade Cunningham become an All-NBA player, made the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and won a playoff game for the first time since 2008.
Such seasons tend to be followed by a consolidation year, and Detroit approached the summer like an organization prepared for that possibility. Duncan Robinson replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris delivers replaced Malik Beasley and the now healthy Jaden Ivey should take Dennis Schroder‘s rotation spot after he departed for the Sacramento Kings in free agency. But, this is a group that will lean into young players like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jal and Ausar thompson to continue expanding their roles around Cunningham.
Detroit should easily challenge for a top-6 playoff spot. And given the state of the East, the Pistons might not need the forecast three-win jump to get there.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
Dallas is going to be one of the NBA’s most interesting teams this season, between introducing Cooper Flagg to life in the NBA, playing some truly massive lineups across the board, the ongoing fallout of the Luka Doncic trade and Kyrie Irving‘s potential return from a torn ACL suffered in March. As it stands now, the only reliable ball handler on the roster is D’Angelo Russella fine rotation player at the point but one who is more suited for a backup role.
That, along with Anthony Davis‘ health issues — he missed six weeks with a groin injury after his Dallas debut, then had surgery to repair a detached retina in July — makes exceeding a 44-win season a taller task in the brutal West.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
Victor Wembanyama has already established himself as the league’s dominant defensive force in his second season.
But for as great as Wembanyama is, this Spurs roster still feels like it’s being formed rather than a finished product. That begins with the guard trio of De’aaron fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.
The Spurs have to figure out how to make all three (all of whom are very talented but are iffy shooters) fit together on the court and learn to play with Wembanyama. It’s one of the biggest questions people around the league have about any team, as well, given what it could mean for how the Spurs will shape the roster moving forward.
That’s a lot to sort out for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson. Wembanyama could of course surpass this number based on his own brilliance alone, but there are enough question marks in San Antonio that sticking with the under feels like the safe choice.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland finished with 36 wins last season after a strong push down the stretch that saw the Blazers rack up wins against teams resting for the playoffs or positioning themselves to maximize draft position.
Portland did turn Anfernee Simons into Jrue Holiday this summer, but it’s unclear where the additional wins will come from. The Blazers are attempting to mesh veterans such as Holiday and Straw grant with a young core of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan CLINGAN. The Blazers are also banking that the defense that showed up throughout the second half of the season — the Blazers tied for the fourth best in the NBA from Jan. 15 on — is more real than the 25th-ranked defense from the first half of 2024-25.
Portland does have some interesting players in Deni Avdi, TOUMANI CAMARA and Clingan to build that defense around, and replacing Simons with a true stopper in Holiday won’t hurt, either. But in an unforgiving conference, the bet here is that Portland can’t improve on last season.
