MSU football: Analyzing the Spartans heading into the opener vs. WMU
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch and Freep beat writer Chris Solari break down the latest with MSU after Jonathan Smith’s Monday presser.
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State football’s opener vs. Western Michigan, 7:05 p.m. Friday at Spartan Stadium. TV: FS1. Betting line: MSU -21
1. Aidan Chiles and MSU’s receivers
If Michigan State’s football team is going to become something beyond expectations this season, that likely means junior quarterback Aidan Chiles and MSU’s receivers — beginning with sophomore Nick Marsh and senior transfer Omari Kelly — are putting on a show. Chiles and his top wideouts don’t need to be in midseason form Friday night, but we should see some explosive moments and drives with rhythm.
It’ll be interesting to see Marsh and Kelly together, and then also to see what MSU’s other new receivers bring to the table — transfers Rodney Bullard Jr., Evan Boyd and Chrishon McCray. This is an entirely new unit surrounding Marsh. And potentially a group that, with Chiles, gives the Spartans’ bona fide difference-makers.
2. MSU’s running game and offensive line
Chiles and the receivers might give the Spartans a chance to cause defense’s problems, but MSU’s offensive line and unproven running backs will have to be serviceable for this offense to be consistent. We won’t know whether MSU can run the ball and protect the quarterback against Big Ten defenses this week, but if they can’t against WMU, we’ll know they have a problem.
MSU’s offensive line should have more depth and seasoning than a year ago. But are there five lineman together who can really win up front? Is there a running back or two between sophomores Makhi Frazier and Brandon Tullis, transfer Elijah Tau-Tolliver and freshman Jace Clarizio, who can turn a crease into 10 yards or turn nothing into a hard two yards? There’s so much to find out about these two position groups.
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3. Does WMU have the weapons to hurt the Spartans?
There is a lot of uncertainty on Western Michigan’s football team. But not entirely. Running back Jalen Buckley is a big-time talent who could start in the Big Ten. And some of WMU’s uncertainty is intriguing, like the quarterback position, with junior college transfer Brady Jones and Indiana transfer Broc Lowry, both of whom are expected to play. Lowry is sizable athlete. Jones threw for 4,456 yards and 44 touchdowns last season at Riverside Community College in California.
The Broncos may or may not have the line play to put many drives together, but they could produce some big plays. I think WMU has enough offensively to be a proper early season test for an MSU defense that has a number of question marks itself.
4. What is WMU’s defense
The Broncos have a new defensive coordinator who’s also a first-time defensive coordinator in Chris O’Leary and a whole lot of new faces, mostly out of the transfer portal. There are so many unknowns — the scheme and whether all these new guys will be disciplined collectively. There’s supposedly some good speed in this crew. But defense is partly about trust and 11 guys doing exactly what they’re supposed to do. It’s just hard to imagine a defense with eight or more first-year players being able to prevent MSU from breaking off some dispiriting big plays.
5. MSU’s kicking game
I don’t think MSU’s kicking game will be the difference between winning and losing this week. But it could be the difference between a comfortable win and one that’s still in doubt late in the third quarter or beyond. And it could be the difference in the outcome soon. MSU’s top two kickers, Tarik Ahmetbasic and Martin Connington, have been dealing with injuries, and so there’s a decent chance that Blake Sislo — who never kicked in three years at Davenport and wasn’t on a roster anywhere last season — is the Spartans’ kicker Friday. There was always going to be some uneasiness to start the season as Ahmetbasic and/or Connington try to replace Jonathan Kim. But turning to Sislo is a whole different level of unknown, which could impact field goals, extra points, fourth-down decisions and kickoffs.
Prediction
MSU’s offense should create enough problems for Western Michigan that this game is comfortably in the Spartans’ hands in the final quarter. I think we’ll see the potential of receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly, and enough talent around QB Aidan Chiles for MSU to score frequently against the Broncos. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, it’ll probably mean MSU is in trouble at the line of scrimmage on one or both sides of the ball.
Make it: MSU 40, WMU 17
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
