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David Schoenfield
This was supposed to be Dynasty II in Atlanta.
From 1991 to 2005, the Braves won 14 division titles in 15 seasons, missing only during the strike year of 1994. From 2018 to 2024, the Braves won six division titles in seven seasons, missing only last year, when they still made the playoffs. Along the way, they won a World Series in 2021, had back-to-back 100-win seasons in 2022 and ’23, and featured one of the most powerful lineups of all time in 2023, when they became the first team to slug .500.
Though the past three postseasons ended in early defeat, the Braves had constructed a team that was the envy of front offices around the league: Not only had they developed young talent, but they had signed Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer strides, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Reynaldo Lopez to long-term contracts, with several of those considered especially team-friendly deals. With Acuna and Strider returning from injuries, the Braves were the division favorite entering the season.
Instead, it has been a disaster. The Braves went 0-6 on a season-opening road trip against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgersscoring just 14 runs in the six games. They clawed back over .500 once, at 24-23 on May 18, but a seven-game losing streak to begin June led to an awful two months. Though they’ve played better in August, it’s much too late, as the Braves appear headed to their first losing season since 2017.
What went wrong?
And can the Braves recover?
While going from 104 wins to a losing record in two years feels unusual, it’s hardly unprecedented. Since 1961, 76 teams have won 100 games. Eighteen of those teams had a losing season within two years. Most recently, the 2022 New York Mets won 101 games and had a losing record the following season (although they bounced back to make the playoffs in 2024). But that Mets teams was a patched-together roster of older players and free agents. The Braves appeared to have the foundation to reel off more division titles.
Let’s dig into what has happened, and what’s next.
Pitching injuries — and departing free agents
Led by Cy Young winner Chris Salethe 2024 Braves had an excellent rotation: third in the majors in ERA, third in innings pitched. They hoped to add Strider to that mix early this season and get a full campaign from Spencer Schwellenbachwho had an outstanding rookie year in 2024 over 21 starts. They also had Grant Holmeswho had appeared as a starter and reliever in 2024 and had looked good in his abbreviated stints in the rotation. Add in 2024 All-Star Reynaldo Lopezcoming off a 1.99 ERA, and they appeared set — despite losing Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency.
Ahh, but the departures of Fried and Morton meant they still had to replace 59 starts and nearly 340 innings in the rotation, and that’s not easy. Factor in that Lopez had made two separate trips to the injured list late in 2024 because of a forearm strain and shoulder issue, that Sale was coming off his healthiest season since 2017, that Strider was coming off a serious injury and that Schwellenbach and Holmes had never pitched a full season in the majors, and it’s easy to see in retrospect that there was plenty of injury risk. The Braves believed they had enough depth with 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver.
All five projected starters got hurt at some point. Lopez lasted one start before undergoing shoulder surgery. Strider hasn’t been the same explosive pitcher from 2022 and 2023. Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery after nine starts and Elder, forced to stay in the rotation, has a 6.12 ERA. As the injuries piled up after the All-Star break, the Braves had to scrounge up guys such as Carlos Carrasco, Cal Quantrill and Erick Fedde to fill out a rotation. The Braves are 23rd in the majors in rotation ERA.
But even when Sale, Schwellenbach, Holmes and Strider were in the rotation at the end of June, the Braves were just 38-45 (although ranked 13th in ERA at the time). Other teams have battled through rotation injuries and survived, as the Mets have had five starters with lengthy IL stints this season, while the Dodgers have also played through a slew of rotation injuries.
What about 2026? The Braves will bring back all these starters for 2026, with the hopes that everyone will be healthy for Opening Day, other than Smith-Shawver. Add in Hurston Waldrepthe 2023 first-round pick who has been excellent since joining the rotation in August, and the Braves will enter next season with a potentially stellar rotation. Given the uncertainty with Schwellenbach (elbow fracture) and Holmes (rehabbing his UCL rather than undergoing Tommy John surgery), it will probably make sense to sign a veteran starter in free agency.
Signed to a three-year, $42 million contract in the offseason to plug a hole in the outfield, Profar received an 80-game suspension just four games into the season. With Acuna not returning until late May, suddenly the Braves had their position player depth tested. Just like 2024, this proved to be a major problem. Bryan from Cruz didn’t hit while filling in for Profar and got waived May 1. Jarred Kelenic was even worse and got sent down after hitting .167 in 24 games. In desperation, they signed Alex Verdugo; he posted an abysmal .585 OPS in 56 games before getting released.
It didn’t help that Harris was one of the worst hitters in the majors in the first half. Acuna returned May 23 and has been outstanding, but even with his production, Braves outfielders rank just 17th in the majors in OPS.
The Braves’ lack of depth showed in other areas. Orlando Arciacoming off a terrible 2024, was the Opening Day shortstop, but once again, he struggled at the plate, lost his starting job to Nick Allenand was released in late May. Allen has been a plus defender, but among players with at least 300 plate appearances, he has been the worst hitter in the majors.
What about 2026? The starting outfield will be set with Acuna, Harris and Profar, but the Braves will need a quality fourth outfielder, as Kelenic no longer looks like an answer (he has been terrible in Triple-A). Allen’s defense is steady, but the Braves will undoubtedly be looking for an offensive upgrade in the offseason. The free agent options are thin at shortstop other than Bo bichette (who has terrible defensive metrics, plus the Braves rarely go after the top free agents), so any upgrade might come via trade. The Braves might live with Allen’s defense, except …
Offensive declines across the board
We mentioned Harris. Though he has somewhat salvaged his season with a hot streak since late July, he’s one of several Braves who haven’t matched what they did in that historic 2023. Note:
Harris
2023: .293/.331/.477, 18 HR
2025: .249/.271/.412, 17 HR
Olson
2023: .283/.389/.604, 54 HR
2025: .271/.367/.460, 21 HR
Albies
2023: .280/.336/.513, 33 HR
2025: .236/.303/.352, 13 HR
Riley
2023: .281/.345/.516, 37 HR
2025: .260/.309/.428, 16 HR
2023: .274/.346/.558, 40 HR
2025: .227/.358/.404, 20 HR
The 2023 Braves scored 947 runs — the most in the majors since the 2007 New York Yankees and the most by a non-Colorado Rockies National League team since the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers. The 2025 Braves are on pace for 714 runs, and currently rank tied for 15th in runs scored.
What about 2026? The Braves will have to do some serious introspection here. After scoring 704 runs in 2024, it seems clear this is the level of the offense: mediocre. They can count on full seasons from Acuna and Profar, which should help. The OBP issues for Harris and Albies, two players who are supposed to be key components in the lineup, are a major problem. Olson is a good hitter, but 2023 was a career season. Riley has battled injuries two seasons in a row. Ozuna is a free agent and will need to be replaced; adding a third catcher and letting Drake Baldwin assume the majority of the DH at-bats is one possibility. Unless they look to trade Albies (he’s making just $7 million each of the next two seasons) or find a shortstop, this group will look the same.
Problems in the bullpen
With all the injuries to the rotation, it didn’t help that the bullpen imploded, at least early. Closer Raisel Iglesias had four blown saves and five losses by early June, a key factor in the Braves digging themselves that early hole. Though he settled down, the pen hasn’t been as strong as the past two seasons, especially last year:
2023
Era: 3.81 (12th)
Win probability added: +3.05 (14th)
2024
ERA: 3.32 (third)
Win probability added: +5.85 (third)
2025
Era: 4.19 (20th)
Win probability added: +2.52 (16th)
What about 2026? Iglesias is a free agent, so the Braves will look for a new closer. Joe Jimenez is a possibility after missing all of 2025 after knee surgery, and Pierce Johnson will probably be back with a $7 million team option. Other free agents will include Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and possibly Robert Suarezwho is likely to opt out of a player option.
Verdict: The Braves can bounce back in 2026
The main reason to be optimistic about 2026 is that the Braves still have their core players in their prime years: Olson will be 32 and Profar 33, but Acuna is just 28, Riley and Albies will turn 29 and Harris will be 25. Baldwin looks like an exciting young hitter, and Waldrep could be an impact starter. A healthy Sale and a better Strider would go a long way to fixing the rotation.
Despite all the issues and rotation filler, the Braves’ run differential isn’t terrible at minus-19. And sometimes, good organizations have bad seasons. The Cincinnati Reds won 102 games in 1970 and 95-plus from 1972 through 1976 but tossed in a 79-83 season in 1971. The St. Louis Cardinals had a winning record every year from 2000 to 2022, except for a 78-84 record in 2007. The Houston Astros have won the AL West every season since 2017, except for a sub-.500 year in 2020 (granted, that was the shortened COVID season).
On the other hand, sometimes that first losing season indicates the good times are over: See the mid-1960s Yankees, late 1980s Mets or 2013 Philadelphia Phillies. Usually, however, those are either old teams or mismanaged ones or some combination of both. The Braves are neither. They’ll need better luck with their pitching health, but the foundation is here to return to the playoff chase next season.
