COLUMBUS, Ohio — Following his team’s 14-7 loss at Ohio State on Saturday, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian summed up one of the biggest changes in competing for a national title in the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
“The days of a national champion being undefeated are over,” he said, “especially when you play in games like this and you play in the conference we play in.”
Week 1’s blockbuster matchups guaranteed at least one playoff contender was going down, but the Longhorns weren’t alone. Alabama lost. Clemson lost. Boise State lost. Notre Dame lost. And though there’s plenty of time to recover, the early results already shook up the playoff pecking order. Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Throw out the preseason rankings and everything you thought you knew about the best teams in college football. Nobody made a bigger Week 1 statement, on the road against a team capable of winning the ACC and competing for a spot in the playoff. The committee starts from scratch, and LSU showed all of the components it looks for — from a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to a defense that proved it can play at an elite level.
Why they could be lower: While the committee insists it starts from scratch, some might give the reigning national champion Ohio State the benefit of the doubt — whether it’s intentional or not. The Buckeyes played a complete game under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin. It was also a clean game, with only two penalties and no turnovers, plus a defensive effort that was the difference in the game.
Need to know: If LSU and Clemson don’t lock up playoff spots as conference champions, Saturday’s LSU win could be critical for seeding in the at-large spots. The higher seed gets home-field advantage, and the top four seeds earn first-round byes. Even if LSU doesn’t win the SEC — and Clemson wins the ACC — there could be a scenario in which LSU is still ranked ahead because of Week 1.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. Alabama’s performance in its loss to Florida State makes the trip to Tuscaloosa seem less daunting. Though that game is a coin toss, ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 70.1% chance to beat LSU.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes beat one of the SEC’s top teams, and they did it with a first-year starting quarterback, but it was at home against a Texas team that didn’t live up to its preseason ranking.
Why they could be higher: Ohio State and LSU had similar performances in that they won with defense and faced offenses that struggled, so it would probably boil down to which opponent the committee thought was more talented.
Need to know: The Buckeyes are projected to win each of their remaining games, and they have the best chance in the FBS to win out (11.2%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Nittany Lions are loaded and hired former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. PSU coach James Franklin said his program wants to “change the narrative” about its inability to win the biggest games.
Why they could be here: The Canes beat a CFP contender that didn’t quit, earning one of the top nonconference wins of Week 1 and probably the whole season. Transfer quarterback Carson Beck had a strong performance, but equally as important was Miami’s defensive improvement. That was a sticking point in the committee meeting room last year and played a role in keeping the Canes out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: Nobody ranked behind Miami has a better nonconference win, so it would be about the committee believing other teams looked better in their first game.
Need to know: The state of Florida will have a huge impact on the CFP race, and Miami doesn’t leave it until November. It will have home-field advantage against South Florida and Florida, and the Hurricanes travel to Tallahassee to play rival FSU on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. Given how the Noles played in their win against Alabama, this rivalry game suddenly looks more daunting.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions might be the best team in the country, but they don’t earn the top spot by hammering Nevada. The selection committee rewards the teams that beat the best competition.
Why they could be lower: Florida State beat Alabama while Penn State manhandled an overmatched, unranked Mountain West Conference team. Other teams beat better competition.
Need to know: Penn State’s nonconference lineup also includes Florida International and Villanova, which will be a factor if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon and Ohio State. A 10-2 Penn State team isn’t a lock if it loses its two best chances to impress the committee — and there are other contenders with two or fewer losses and better wins. Strength of schedule still matters.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 61.2% chance to win — the only game on Penn State’s schedule it’s not expected to win.
Why they could be here: Florida State outmuscled one of the SEC’s top programs, giving FSU one of the best Week 1 wins. Still, some committee members will question how good Alabama is this year.
Why they could be higher: This wasn’t a fluke. The Seminoles controlled the line of scrimmage and were the more physical team. FSU racked up more than 200 yards on the ground, with over 100 yards inside and outside the tackles. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos gave the Noles a true dual threat, and FSU’s defense smothered rookie Bama quarterback Ty Simpson.
Need to know: FSU still faces rivals Miami and Florida this season, and also travels to Clemson, but plays five of its first six games at home.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. This has been a game that has helped determine who plays for the ACC title — and it’s certainly possible they could meet again in the conference championship game.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs looked dominant in their 45-7 victory over Marshall, but it was a home game against an overmatched opponent, and Georgia did what a playoff team should do. Georgia got a strong performance from first-year starting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who accounted for four touchdowns.
Why they could be higher: Georgia played a clean game, with just two penalties and no turnovers through the first three quarters, the defense was dominant and the Bulldogs got the ground game going.
Need to know: Georgia has the second-best chance to win the SEC behind Texas (26.4%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns are confident their mistakes are fixable, and this game should again help determine who will play in the SEC title game — or be a sneak preview of it.
Why they could be here: A 59-13 drubbing of Montana State won’t move the needle in the room. Still, the defending Big Ten champs continued their offensive success with first-year starting quarterback Dante Moore, who had three passing touchdowns, tied for the most in a game in his career.
Why they could be lower: This is the only team on the list that beat an FCS team, and the committee tracks wins against FCS opponents.
Need to know: Oregon avoids Ohio State and Michigan this year in the Big Ten schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. Both teams should be undefeated heading into this game — it will be critical to the CFP and Big Ten rankings — and it will be an unforgiving environment on the other side of the country. It’s the only game ESPN’s FPI projects Oregon to lose.
Why they could be here: New quarterback Joey Aguilar looked comfortable executing coach Josh Heupel’s offense against a respectable Syracuse team, notching a nonconference win that would earn respect in the committee meeting room. This was a complete performance, evidenced by an offensive AND defensive touchdown in the first quarter. The Vols made an early statement that they’ll be just fine without quarterback Nico Iamaleava — at least against an average opponent.
Why they could be higher: The committee could reward the Vols for a win against an ACC team over Georgia and Oregon playing lesser opponents.
Need to know: The Vols have the fourth-best chance in the SEC to reach the playoff (49.9%) behind Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 13 vs. Georgia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: This was a tough loss on the road to a talented team, but Notre Dame’s slow start to the second half on both sides was glaring. First-year starting quarterback CJ Carr struggled, but so did the running game, which has one of the best backs in the country in Jeremiyah Love. Miami looked like the better team, had more explosive plays and started the second half by pushing Notre Dame’s defense down the field while controlling the clock.
Why they could be lower: The committee could give South Carolina more credit for its win and stronger quarterback play.
Need to know: Because the top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions, Notre Dame can earn a first-round bye if it finishes in the selection committee’s top four. The Irish should be cheering for the Canes the rest of the season because a road loss to the ACC champs could be one of the better losses among contenders.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. The Irish will get home-field advantage against their rivals, and ESPN’s FPI gives them a 58.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns aren’t out of the playoff just because they lost a close road game to one of the best teams in the country. They had opportunities to win the game. They need an answer, though, to the red zone woes, and to extract more from the passing game. The selection committee won’t punish Texas for losing to Ohio State, but it will ding the Longhorns for playing poorly.
Why they could be lower: There are Hall of Fame coaches and players in the committee meeting room, and there’s no sugarcoating quarterback Arch Manning‘s poor debut. This game wasn’t an instant classic. It was kind of a dud, and Texas didn’t convince anyone it’s a lock for the SEC title.
Need to know: Texas doesn’t face another Power 4 opponent until its SEC opener at Florida, so the Longhorns should be 4-1 heading into the swamp.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Gamecocks earned a respectable nonconference win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies are a bottom-tier ACC team that was picked to finish 11th in the preseason media poll. It was also a close game early, as South Carolina entered the half with a 10-8 lead. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers had one of the most impressive Week 1 performances by a quarterback, though, and the committee often singles out the nation’s top players. Still, it wasn’t a flawless outing, as he was sacked five times, which will be a problem against SEC defenses.
Why they could be higher: A neutral-site win against an ACC team could get more votes from committee members than a home win against a non-Power team.
Need to know: This could be a dangerous spot on Selection Day — just ask Alabama. Because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, the committee’s No. 11-ranked team could get bumped out. In this scenario, the Big 12 and Group of 5 champion would enter the bracket ahead of No. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at LSU. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 59.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Tigers aren’t being punished for losing to a top-tier team, but they’re in the final spot because of a one-dimensional offense that was exposed by LSU’s defense. Clemson’s combination of running backs accounted for 31 yards and a measly 1.6 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade Klubnik will have to play better to beat rival South Carolina, which is ranked above in part because of a better quarterback performance.
Why they could be higher: The LSU defense deserves credit for harassing Klubnik all game. He didn’t always have the time he needed to throw, and this was hardly a blowout like last year’s season-opening loss to Georgia.
Need to know: In this scenario, Clemson would miss the playoff because it would get bumped out for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. This week, that’s projected to be South Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. This would still be a critical head-to-head result late in the season that could help either team’s playoff position, but ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 66.5% chance to win. Clemson is 0-4 against SEC teams since the start of last season.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Penn State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Florida State
No. 11 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Florida State winner vs. No. 4 Penn State
No. 11 Arizona State/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Tennessee winners vs. No. 1 LSU
