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Matt Bowen
Outside of a few games in Week 1, I thought the football was pretty average. And the lower fantasy football numbers — from some big-time players — tend to reflect that. I saw it in my lineups, too. Rough.
But what does a bad game from one of your fantasy starters really mean?
Sometimes, the anticipated volume is there, but it was just a down day. The matchup comes into play here, as does game flow. The call sheet matters, too. We get that. On to the next.
However, Week 1 can also point to some negative trends. And those do tell a story.
Below are 10 players who underperformed in Week 1. We’ll decide if it were simply a bad game or was it a bad sign that could impact your lineup moving forward.
Bad games
A.J. BrownWR, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown was a nonfactor in the Eagles’ Thursday night win, catching his only target with under 2 minutes to go in the game. One grab for eight yards (1.8 points). That’s it. Now, Dallas did play zone coverage on 85.7% of Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks, which forces the ball underneath. I saw defenders getting to depth and squeezing zone windows.
However, the Eagles can scheme better to create more open voids for their No. 1 wide receiver. Think in-breaking concepts here. Sure, Week 1 was pretty rough if you rostered Brown, but I don’t have major concerns after one game. Look for the Eagles to flip the script for Brown in Week 2 at Kansas City, which means a bump in volume and third-level throws.
Joe BurrowQB, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow and the Bengals’ passing offense struggled in the Week 1 road win over the Cleveland Browns. Burrow, who finished with 8.82 fantasy points, completed only 14 of 23 passes for 113 yards and one touchdown, while Ja’arrr chase (4.6 points) and Tee Higgins (6.3 points) combined for 59 yards receiving on five grabs.
The Browns defense has presented issues for Burrow before. Go back to Week 7 of last season, also in Cleveland. Burrow completed 15 of 25 throws for 181 yards and two scores (14.9 points). Not enough for fantasy managers. The season opener in 2023? Another road game against the Browns, and Burrow had 3.2 points returning from a preseason calf injury.
However, for this week’s home opener against the Jaguars, where the Bengals will see split-safety zone coverage and positive perimeter matchups, Burrow is right back in my ranks as a top-five QB.
Omarion HamptonRB, Las Angeles Chargers
Hampton’s pro debut against the Kansas City Chiefs yielded 8.1 fantasy points, which didn’t meet the summer hype on the rookie. It happens (a lot). But it’s important to focus on his overall usage in the Chargers backfield.
Hampton was clearly the lead runner in this matchup, finishing with 17 touches, compared to only two for veteran Najee Harris. And while Hampton averaged just 3.2 YPC — on 15 rushing attempts — I would tell managers to trust Jim Harbaugh’s system, where the run game is a foundational piece. Early in the season, especially after one game, I look at volume first. That tells a story. Keep Hampton in the lineup as your RB2 this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I was really excited to watch Thomas under new coach Liam Coen in a positive matchup against the Carolina Panthers. However, Thomas finished with only one catch for 11 yards. The opportunities were there, though, as Thomas did see seven targets from Trevor Lawrenceplus he scored on a schemed rushing attempt (reverse) in the second quarter. I would hope that came from a section on Coen’s game plan that reads: “Get the ball to Brian,” because he is a difference-maker.
So, what happened here? Looking at the tape, Lawrence had some flat-out misses when targeting Thomas, and it started on his first pass of the game, an underthrown fade ball. We need to see better ball location from Lawrence this week against Cincinnati. The plays are there to be made. But I’ll take the seven targets, with a dedicated effort to get the ball in Thomas’ hands on that run play. He’s a three-level playmaker. Be patient.
Nico CollinsWR, Houston Texans
The Texans-Rams game was a slugfest. Nothing pretty about it, which happens often in Week 1. Collins caught three of five targets for 25 yards in the loss. The 5.5 fantasy points are not nearly enough for your lineup, but I still see some positives here. Collins led the Texans with an 18.5% target share, and he plays a defined role in this offense.
Collins will align as the boundary X to the backside of 3×1 sets, where he will be an isolation target for quarterback C.J. Stroud — at multiple levels. Throw the fade, slant and deep curl, which we saw in the game against the Rams. The schemed targets will be there, too. And Collins moves around the formation to see the ball on screens and frontside combination routes. It’s a better matchup for Collins on the perimeter on Monday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Flip the page.
Bad signs
Is it fair to say Goff will take a step back this season without his former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the mix? Yes. Johnson brought a sense of calm to Goff’s game, and we saw that in his pocket movement and eye level. He made major improvements under Johnson’s coaching. While I don’t want to use Week 1 as a barometer for an entire season, especially against Green Bay’s upgraded defense, Goff finished with 10.9 points — and only one completion of 20 or more yards.
Last season, Goff averaged 19.9 points and finished as QB6 in overall scoring. A big-play offense, explosive in the pass game. And Goff still has high-level targets in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, I am Laporta and Jahmyr Gibbsso I’m not expecting this offense to fall off a cliff. That’s not happening. But I do believe Goff’s numbers could decline, making him more of a streaming option this season.
Miami Dolphins pass game
I do like the Week 2 matchup for Miami against New Englandas the Patriots defense just gave up 362 yards passing to Geno Smithincluding nine completions of 20 or more yards (most in the league last week). But after the Dolphins’ blowout loss to the Colts on Sunday, there must be some sense of pause here, no?
Dolphins quarterback Backdault is a timing and rhythm thrower. He gets the ball out, with location. I didn’t see that at a consistent rate in Week 1, though, and Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times (two interceptions, one fumble). Tyreek Hill accounted for 8.0 points, catching four of six targets for 40 yards, while Jaylen Waddle caught four of five targets for 30 yards (7.0 points). For this offense to go, and for managers to see big numbers in their lineups, the big plays must hit. There should be plenty of opportunities for that to happen with Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle, but that first week didn’t create much confidence.
Harvey flashed his big-play ability on his 50-yard rush in the win over the Tennessee Titans. He has some juice in his game. But Harvey finished with only eight touches on the day, while veteran J.K. Dobbins paced the Broncos with 18 touches and a rushing score. Based on the usage, Dobbins has the look of the Broncos’ lead back heading into this week’s meeting with the Indianapolis Colts.
This doesn’t mean you should look to trade Harvey, as he has all the traits to fit as Sean Payton’s No. 1 running back. He’s got upside in the league. But after one game, with Dobbins seeing most of the volume, Harvey’s fantasy value does take a hit. For now, he’s a deeper-league flex who will need more time to earn a defined role.
Kaleb JohnsonRB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I was targeting Johnson consistently in my summer mock drafts. The scheme fit sells in Pittsburgh. And Johnson created splash plays on his college tape. That’s why I envisioned him carving out a role as the early-down runner when paired with Jaylen Warren in the Steelers backfield.
Instead, it was veteran Kenneth Gainwell who shared the backfield with Warren in the win over the New York Jetsand Johnson saw just one carry (for minus-2 yards). Not the debut managers expected when they drafted Johnson, but this early in the season you simply hold on to the rookie because he does have the ability to produce in the Steelers’ run game. He’s a bench stash until further notice.
Cooper coupWR, Seattle Seahawks
Kupp showed signs of decline on his 2024 tape, including reduced lower-body quickness and separation speed, which can lead to more contested throws. And Kupp didn’t flash much at all in the Seahawks’ loss to the 49ers, catching two of three targets for 15 yards.
Yes, Seahawks offensive coordinator Kubiak Clint can manufacture more production for Kupp with formations and motions that give the veteran free access off the ball, and the play-action pass game can also open more windows. But it’s clear Jaxon Smith-Njigba (nine receptions, 124 yards in Week 1) is the volume target in Seattle. Kupp can be started in Week 2 versus the Steelers, but he’s a better fit in deeper formats.
