Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 2 scores, projections, matchups

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicks off Thursday with the Commanders at the Packers.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

WAS-GB | CLE-BAL | JAX-CIN | NYG-DAL | CHI-DET | NE-MIA | SF-NO | BUF-NYJ
SEA-PIT | LAR-TEN | CAR-ARI | DEN-IND | PHI-KC | ATL-MIN | TB-HOU | LAC-LV

Projected score: Packers 26, Commanders 25

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Josh Jacobs, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel

Fantasy scoop: The Packers’ comfortable Week 1 victory kept their pass plays to a minimum (26 dropbacks), but we did get a look at the team’s new-look WR room. Romeo Doubs (16 routes, four targets), Matthew Golden (13 routes, two targets), Dontayvion Wicks (nine routes, two targets), Jayden Reed (12 routes, five targets), Malik Heath (three routes, zero targets) and Savion Williams (one route, one target) were all involved. This deployment paints the picture of a wide receiver-by-committee approach, but it’s very possible Golden was limited a bit in his pro debut. The first-round rookie’s role figures to increase as the season progresses, and the targets will follow in more competitive, pass-friendly games. In the meantime, Golden, Reed and Doubs are no more than fringe flex options.

Over/under: 51 (highest)
Win Probability: Packers 57% (13th highest)

Projected score: Bengals 28, Jaguars 22

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Tee Higgins

Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars’ RB picture is a bit clearer after the team traded Tank Bigsby to the Eagles on Monday. Week 1 saw Jacksonville deploy four backs, with Travis Etienne (16 carries and three targets on 39 snaps) the clear leader and Bigsby (five carries on 12 snaps), LeQuint Allen (one carry and one target on nine snaps) and Bhayshul Tuten (three carries on four snaps) also involved. With Bigsby gone, the team will lean on the other three, with Etienne the clear top option … for now. Allen will be a factor in passing situations (he ran only four fewer routes than Etienne) and Tuten is positioned for more change-of-pace carries. Etienne showed well against a shaky Carolina defense in the opener and is a viable flex option this week. But should Etienne’s efficiency dip, Tuten will be a candidate for a larger role. The rookie remains a fine end-of-bench stash.

Fantasy scoop: Hunter was quiet in his NFL debut (33 yards), but there’s good news: The No. 2 pick was on the field for 30 of the team’s 33 pass plays and led Jacksonville in targets (six) and catches (six). Hunter, who was limited to six snaps on defense, is unlikely to maintain a 28% target share, but even if he’s closer to 20% to 25%, he’s a good bet for consistent WR2-3 production. He should be locked into lineups this week against a shaky Bengals defense.

Over/under: 49.2 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Bengals 71% (third highest)

Projected score: Cowboys 24, Giants 21

Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers

Fantasy scoop: Javonte Williams was Dallas’ clear feature back in Week 1, playing 80% of the offensive snaps and totaling 15 carries and three targets. Williams was not overly effective (3.6 yards per carry, 3.3 yards per target) but bailed out those who started him in fantasy with a pair of short touchdown runs. Williams’ heavy usage is enough to position him as a fringe RB2 this week against a New York defense that gave up 164 yards to Washington’s RBs in Week 1. But if Williams’ efficiency doesn’t improve, it’s likely that Miles Sanders (50 yards on five touches in Week 1) and rookie Jaydon Blue (inactive) will chip away at his workload.

Shadow Report: Expect Trevon Diggs to shadow Nabers in Week 2. Diggs was limited in his return in Week 1, but when he was on the field, he shadowed A.J. Brown on six of nine coverage snaps. Additionally, Dallas chose to shadow Nabers in both 2024 matchups, with Diggs traveling with him in Week 4 and DaRon Bland following him in Week 13 (Diggs was out). Nabers was productive in both games, totaling 23.1 fantasy points and 14.9 points, respectively. He can, of course, be started with confidence, and Darius Slayton should be considered a Week 2 sleeper against Kaiir Elam.

Over/under: 44.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 62% (11th highest)

Projected score: Lions 27, Bears 22

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 gave us our first look at Ben Johnson’s version of the Chicago offense, and, at least in the short term, it was good news for Odunze and bad news for Colston Loveland. Odunze paced the Bears’ wide receiver room in snaps (59), routes (34) and targets (9). Many of the looks came in the short area (7.6 aDOT) and limited him to 37 yards, but the second-year-receiver did find the end zone, and his 26% target share is certainly sustainable moving forward. Odunze should be in lineups as a WR3 this week. Loveland, on the other hand, was out-snapped 57-35 and out-targeted 4-2 by Cole Kmet. The rookie was on the field for only 22 of the team’s 43 pass plays (compared to 37 for Kmet), which isn’t enough to provide TE1 fantasy numbers. Loveland should be stashed on benches until his playing time increases.

Over/under: 48.1 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Lions 68% (seventh highest)

Projected score: Rams 26, Titans 20