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Pamela Maldonado
South Florida is all the buzz entering an all-Florida clash at Miami this weekend, starting 2-0 with upset wins over ranked teams.
On paper it looks like one of the best starts in program history. But box scores do not always tell the full story.
There is more beneath the surface of these first two wins, and what it reveals could completely change how you see this team heading to play the Hurricanes.
No. 18 South Florida Bulls at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, The CW Network
Line: Miami -17.5
Money line: Miami (-800), South Florida (+500)
Over/Under: 56.5 (O -105, U -115)
Why USF’s 2-0 start looks better than it is
USF is 2-0 with upset wins over No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida, but the start looks better on paper than it really is. The Bulls have been living off big plays, turnovers and opponent mistakes more than consistent, sustainable football.
Against Boise, USF won 34-7, but the box score tells a different story. Boise actually had more first downs and controlled time of possession. They moved the ball well but lost three fumbles that killed scoring chances.
USF hit a few explosive passes, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, but only managed 15 first downs on 372 total yards. To me, that says the Bulls are relying on a handful of big plays to put points on the board, and when those plays are not there, they struggle to sustain drives and keep the offense moving.
Florida was the same story in a different way. USF pulled out an 18-16 win, but Florida hurt itself with 11 penalties, a key interception and missed opportunities in the red zone. Across both games, USF has forced four turnovers but has scored zero points off them, which says a lot about their offensive struggles.
The numbers support it. USF struggles to sustain drives, has trouble converting on third down, and the defense is slightly below average. The 2-0 record is real, but the dominance is not.
Without those opponent mistakes (Boise adjusting without Ashon jeanty and Florida showing preseason concerns), this could just as easily be an 0-2 team.
Why Miami is different than Boise State and Florida
Miami is not Boise State or Florida. After one game against Notre Dame, Miami looks like a complete, balanced and disciplined team, which is something neither of USF’s upset victims could say.
Boise’s loss was about self-destruction, while Florida’s loss was different but just as messy. In both games, USF didn’t dominate from start to finish; they capitalized on mistakes.
Miami feels different. Carson Beck is in his third year as a starting quarterback, looks to rebound from his 2024 injury and in Week 1 threw for 472 yards and four touchdowns against Notre Dame, spreading the ball around to multiple weapons, while Mark Fletcher Jr. added balance with over 150 rushing yards. This offense can beat you in more ways than one.
Most importantly, they play clean football. Against Notre Dame, Miami had just six penalties and zero turnovers.
Miami can get downfield, finish in the red zone and protect the ball. Unlike Boise State and Florida, the Canes are not likely to hand USF free possessions or easy scoring opportunities.
Betting prediction: UNDER 56.5 (-115) 
Through two upset wins, USF is 114th in offensive success rate and converts just 36% on third down, which tells you the Bulls struggle to keep drives alive. Even more telling, despite forcing four turnovers against Boise State and Florida, they have scored zero points off them. Most of their production has come from a handful of explosive plays, not consistent offense.
Miami’s defense is built to shut that down. Against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes created three sacks and an interception. This unit forces teams into uncomfortable situations, and that is exactly where USF has struggled most.
Offensively, Miami is balanced and efficient. Between Beck’s passing abilities and the ground game building momentum, the Canes can control pace when they need to. Expect Miami to lean on the run, keep the ball and limit possessions.
Unless USF connects on multiple deep shots, scoring will be tough for the Bulls. I generally do not mess with double-digit spreads this big, so I would lean to Miami -17.5 or pass, but the conviction is on the under 56.5. I would be surprised if USF hit 17 points. It’s a matter of how much will Miami score.
