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Pamela Maldonado
Six weeks into the season, the Heisman race looks nothing like it did in August, the national title board is shifting but mostly stable, and one Big 12 team might be a lot more dangerous than the market realizes.
From Carson Beck‘s surge to favorite status to Ahmad Hardy‘s under-the-radar case, from Miami’s steady climb toward playoff contention to why Alabama’s price still doesn’t make sense, here’s what the odds are telling us and where the real betting edges still lie.
The biggest line moves for Heisman Trophy winner
Carson BeckQB, Miami +600 
Last week +1200
Six weeks of football complete, six new Heisman favorites. Beck is the new favorite. He was on my list at +2200 preseason but at +600, this would be a no for me.
There’s partial merit, but it’s more about narrative and team success than raw stats. Beck hasn’t been statistically dominant, outside the top 50 nationally in passing yards and just 22nd in touchdowns, but he is leading an undefeated top 5 Miami team, and is coming off his best performance of the season (4 TD, 0 INT vs. Florida State).
In a year without a runaway favorite, those efficiency metrics paired with winning at a playoff-caliber program are enough to justify his surge to the top of the Heisman board.
Ahmad HardyRB, Missouri +3000
Last week: +3500
Hardy is top 15 in the odds, so why bring up a player this far down halfway into the season? Because some players should just be recognized for their contributions. Hardy’s odds have been improving each week, and while it’s unlikely he makes it to New York, there’s real merit to his rising Heisman odds. He’s not just producing volume but elite, efficiency-driven impact leading the nation in rushing yards, second in rushing touchdowns, and owns the highest PFF rushing grade.
His combination of most yards after contact and elite explosiveness (21 runs of 10+ yards, tied most 15+ yard runs) shows he’s both heavily relied on as a game-breaker. That blend of dominance, consistency and big-play ability is exactly what elevates a running back into serious Heisman contention. Or at the least, keeps a team that no one is talking about, pushed into the spotlight when least expected.
On deck: an Alabama defense that ranks in the bottom 25 in yards per rush and rushing scores allowed on the road this season.
The biggest line move for the national championship odds
Alabama +700
Last week +800
This is less about the line move and more about my assessment of the Crimson Tide being third-highest odds for the title. I don’t agree. Alabama’s defense is lagging far behind elite contenders, ranking outside the top 40 in EPA/play allowed and struggling against both the run and pass.
Bama’s offense remains inconsistent and imbalanced with a below-average success rate (45%) and limited explosiveness, flaws that make them less complete than Ohio State or Oregon and even lagging behind Miami. I still just don’t see it. And to reiterate what I’ve been saying each week, the tests are still coming.
Miami +800
Last week +1500
Miami deserves to be the third favorite because they’re one of the most balanced teams in the country, pairing a top-20 defense that generates negative EPA against both run and pass with an offense that’s steadily improving in efficiency and success rate.
With that two-way consistency emerging, the odds shift from +1500 to +800 reflects a legitimate rise in their championship ceiling. The Hurricanes fit the blueprint for a national contending team.
Betting consideration: Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (-110)
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What separates Texas Tech from the rest of the Big 12?
Pamela Maldonado breaks down why Texas Tech stands out as one of the most dangerous contenders in the Big 12.
When I first shared Texas Tech at +115 to win the Big 12 on ESPN Bet Monday afternoon, I said that number wouldn’t last, and it didn’t. It’s already moved to -110, which is the market’s way of confirming what the data shows: Tech is the most complete team in the conference.
At -110, the bet is still playable if you believe the Red Raiders will finish the job in December. But if you’d rather pay for a little more security, -180 to make the playoff is a viable alternative. That ticket covers more paths, including scenarios where Texas Tech goes 12-0 but loses the Big 12 title game, or finishes 11-1 and possibly still earns a spot based on strength of schedule.
Heading into Week 7, the Red Raiders are 5-0 and doing it with a profile that translates in December: a balanced, explosive offense and one of the best defenses in the country.
The Red Raiders are first in run defense and coverage grade, third in pass-rush production, with opponents having reached the red zone just nine times all season. This is the type of team that does not just win shootouts, but can grind you down too.
And the path is not as daunting as it looks. BYU is the only other undefeated team in the conference, but it is fool’s gold, and the market knows it. The Cougars are sitting at -1800 to miss the playoff. That leaves only two true roadblocks for Texas Tech: road games at Arizona State and Kansas State. Win one of those, and they are almost certainly playing for the Big 12 title and likely playing for much more.
If you are already holding a +550 ticket from my preseason preview, the better edge now is -180 to make the playoff. Because if Tech wins the Big 12, they are guaranteed a CFP spot.
Their front seven gets pressure without blitzing, their secondary closes throwing windows, and quarterback Behren Morton has the arm talent and poise to trade punches with anyone. This is not just a fun offense riding a hot start. Texas Tech is a complete, veteran-driven roster with a ceiling high enough to make noise on the sport’s biggest stage. So far it looks like (NIL) money well spent because they’re not sleepers anymore — they’re the real deal.
