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Kevin Pelton
Which NBA teams might be better or worse than expected this season? My stats-based projections help answer that question.
Last year, my model was high on the Cleveland Cavaliers (ranked second in the Eastern Conference) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (the highest overall projection) and appropriately liked the Brooklyn Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers to be more competitive than expected while putting the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns lower than conventional wisdom (but still not as poor as they actually finished, entirely out of the play-in tournament for both teams).
Based on the scoring of projections at the APBRmetrics forum, my recalibrated forecast had the second-lowest root mean squared error, a method that heavily penalizes bad misses. It also had the strongest correlation to actual wins and losses.
To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.
The result is an expected wins total given average health, which is comparable to teams’ over/under season win totals at ESPN BET. In addition to ranking each conference’s teams 1 to 15, I’ve also tried to explain why my projections are higher or lower than those totals.
Let’s get to it, starting with the defending champions. Then we’ll look into who could emerge in a wide-open Eastern Conference and who might plummet down in the standings this season.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 59.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 62.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Oklahoma City’s line of 62.5 wins is appropriately monstrous. In fact, it’s the highest since the 2017-18 NBA champion Warriors were pegged at 67.5 wins, before finishing with 58. If anyone is going to hit that line, it’s the Thunder, who have the highest projection for any team in my model since … the 2017-18 Warriors.
2. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 56.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 46.5
Why they project to be better than their total: The Warriors might have the single most surprising projection for any team, nearly four wins clear of the non-Oklahoma City field. Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season — they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season — the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team.
3. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 52.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: There’s not much disagreement here on the Nuggets, who are third in the Western Conference either way. The win-plus differential could easily be explained by the market’s optimism that Denver’s newcomers — Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas — will perform slightly better when paired with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
4. LA Clippers
Projected wins: 49.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 47.5
Why they project to be better than their total: A rosy projection for Kawhi Leonard‘s health is a key factor. Leonard is projected for 66 games, along the lines of the 68 he played in 2023-24 but more than he has played in any other season with the Clippers. The Clippers also benefit from having no player rated worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions projected for more than 200 minutes.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 46.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Even before Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL on Sept. 22, Houston was projected under by the model. Kevin Durant hasn’t driven winning success at the level his box score stats would imply since being traded to the Suns at the 2023 deadline. The gap was exacerbated, however, once VanVleet was injured. The Rockets’ line has moved only a game from where it opened, and as I noted in the analysis of the injury, Houston’s projection dropped by nearly four wins without the rock-solid point guard.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 45.8
ESPN BET over/under total: 48.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: This is an annual occurrence for the Lakers, whose line benefits from their popularity, particularly in Las Vegas. On average, the Lakers have finished 5.7 wins below their total since 2013-14, the biggest gap for any team. There certainly is reason to believe the Lakers could hit the mark if Luka Doncic plays at an MVP level in his first full season with the team. But the Lakers are far and away the league’s top-heaviest team, with just four players projected better than league average. The other teams with fewer than five — the Nets, Jazz and Wizards — are all pegged for the lottery.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 44.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Memphis is starting at a higher point than last season’s 48 wins. In terms of point differential, the Grizzlies ranked third in the West, behind the two conference finalists, and that’s a better predictor going forward. Even with the loss of starting guard Desmond Bane to Orlando, Memphis still projects with a reasonable chance at avoiding the play-in. The team will have to monitor Ja Morant, who is week-to-week with a sprained left ankle suffered during Sunday’s practice.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 43.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 49.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Timberwolves were one of my model’s big misses a season ago, winning 49 games while projected for 42.7. In part, Minnesota benefited from favorable health on the perimeter. Nickeil Alexander-Walker‘s departure means one of the Wolves’ young guards will have to step into a rotation role, and Terrence Shannon Jr. — the most likely contender ahead of the season — projects poorly. But don’t blame Minnesota fans for thinking their team is underrated after back-to-back trips to the conference finals.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 43.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Although I don’t love how the players fit together in Dallas, the Mavericks certainly have plenty of talent with eight who rate better than league average, including Kyrie Irving (knee), who currently doesn’t have a timetable for a return. Dallas is dependent on D’Angelo Russell solidifying the point guard spot until Irving returns, but this roster isn’t getting quite enough credit due to Irving’s injury and the Luka Doncic trade.
10. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 43.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 34.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Similar to Dallas, Sacramento appears to have more talent than the narrative about the team suggests. Remember, the Kings won 40 games a season ago with a positive point differential. And while they dropped to a 36-win pace with Zach LaVine in the lineup after the De’Aaron Fox trade, they’ve upgraded at point guard with Dennis Schroder. The ceiling might not be high for Sacramento, but it’s unlikely the Kings are anywhere near as out of the mix as their line suggests.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 40.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 44.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: I understand the bet on Victor Wembanyama emerging as a top-five player this season despite a projection that’s not quite so aggressive. We’ve seen similar breakthroughs for other transcendent prospects in Year 3. The rest of the roster, however, leaves much to be desired. No. 2 draft pick Dylan Harper is unlikely to help the Spurs win as a rookie, and Stephon Castle‘s advanced stats in Year 1 didn’t match his Rookie of the Year reputation.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 35.8
ESPN BET over/under total: 33.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Portland won 36 games in 2024-25 and upgraded in my projections by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday. The market is right to be skeptical of Portland’s 23-18 second half, driven in large part by poor opponent 3-point shooting (34%, second lowest in the NBA), which doesn’t typically carry over. Still, this line seems like an overcorrection for a team that wants to compete for a play-in spot.
13. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 34.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 31.5
Why they project to be better than their total: I get the logic that Phoenix won 36 games last season then subtracted Kevin Durant. However, the Suns were probably due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago, and Durant’s value at this stage of his career is likely overstated. It’s also worth remembering that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season because the team’s draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance.
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 32.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 30.5
Why they project to be better than their total: That’s a remarkably low figure for a team that has plenty of NBA talent. New Orleans ranked in the NBA’s top five in games lost to injury last season, and it should have better health this time around, even if Dejounte Murray‘s Achilles rupture will cost him much of the campaign. Like the Suns, the Pelicans don’t benefit from improving their draft pick, which was sent to the Hawks on draft night.
15. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 20.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 18.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Teams with lines this low typically go over, including two of the bottom three teams from last season. In Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz have a pair of above-average starters to counteract the issues caused by their young backcourt.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 50.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 56.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Cavaliers are probably due some regression to the mean after jumping from 48 wins to 64 last season. Part of that relates to health, and Cleveland already has two starters (All-Star guard Darius Garland and wing Max Strus) sidelined to start the season, forcing Kenny Atkinson deeper into his perimeter rotation than he had to go last season. The Cavaliers are still a strong pick to claim the East’s top seed but perhaps with a lower win total than in 2024-25.
2. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 49.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 51.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: If anything, my projections are probably more bullish on the Magic, who place just a hair behind Cleveland for the best in the East. The small discrepancy can probably be attributed to overlooking the schedule, a factor that is easy to overrate but one that is not specifically included in these projections. Orlando also dealt for Desmond Bane this past summer, a move that should contribute to their success.
3. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 47.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Knicks outperformed last season’s 45.4-win projection by 5.5 games, benefiting from strong in-season health. Among New York’s starting five, only Jalen Brunson missed as many as nine games due to injury or illness. That might be difficult to replicate. And I’m also counting on fewer minutes for the Knicks’ top players with Mike Brown replacing Tom Thibodeau as coach. I’d expect New York to finish somewhere between these two marks, ending around 50 wins.
4. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 45.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Even though former Indiana center Myles Turner — now with the Bucks — will be difficult to replace, this number feels shockingly low. The Pacers were still competitive last season when they were without Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss the 2025-26 campaign with a torn right Achilles. And Indiana’s replacements at center — most notably stretch big man Jay Huff — do rate better than conventional wisdom. I’m not confident Indiana can finish in the same spot in the standings as last season, but I like the Pacers’ chances of being better than .500.
5. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 45.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: As with Indiana, there might be too much focus on the players Boston lost and not enough on the ones who remain. The Celtics still have eight players projected better than average — tied for eighth most in the league — including All-Star Jaylen Brown and statistical standout Derrick White. The caveat here is that Boston could subtract during the season to avoid the luxury tax and take a chance at the lottery before Jayson Tatum — likely out for the season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon — returns.
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 44.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 42.5
Why they project to be better than their total: I might point out that Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo and leave it at that. The Bucks went 11-5 last season in games Antetokounmpo played without Damian Lillard, albeit against a weak schedule, and they’ve upgraded at center from Brook Lopez to Myles Turner. Due in part to that success, my model is higher on guards AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins than conventional wisdom would suggest.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 44.3
ESPN BET over/under total: 46.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The hype might be getting a little heavy for the Hawks, whose offseason was undoubtedly positive but perhaps not transformative in the short term. I’m higher than the model on Atlanta’s chances of avoiding the play-in, but I would still be surprised if they finish in the East’s top four.
8. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 42.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 45.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Largely because of the loss of Malik Beasley, arguably Detroit’s second-best player last season after All-Star centerpiece Cade Cunningham. Replacements Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson don’t rate anywhere near as effectively as Beasley, who finished second in the NBA in made 3-pointers last season. Relying more on young talent could cause the Pistons to take a short-term step back.
9. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 40.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: The Raptors’ moves have capped their upside but should produce a competitive team given reasonable health. Toronto was in the top 10 in games missed due to injury or illness, including Brandon Ingram sitting out the remainder of the season after being acquired from New Orleans at the deadline. One quiet move my model likes: the addition of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who was effective last season with the Spurs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 40.3
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: We’re not far apart here. Adding Norman Powell should help Miami remain competitive with Tyler Herro sidelined to start the season following surgery to address an impingement in his left foot.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 38.4
ESPN BET over/under total: 42.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The optimism around the Sixers is a bit mystifying; their roster looks worse on paper with the loss of key frontcourt contributor Guerschon Yabusele. If Joel Embiid is healthy and effective, Philadelphia probably would finish better than .500. But even the 1,440 minutes I’ve projected for Embiid feel optimistic at this point; he last played that much in 2022-23 en route to being named MVP. And fellow injury question mark Paul George no longer rates as an elite player after last season’s performance.
12. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 38.0
ESPN BET over/under total: 31.5
Why they project to be better than their total: This feels like a case of the market not paying attention. Chicago has won either 39 or 40 games across each of the past three campaigns, and they went 17-10 after the All-Star break last season without Zach LaVine. The Bulls have made it clear they’d rather pursue a play-in berth than a high spot entering the lottery. Chicago’s direction leaves much to be desired, but the Bulls should be competitive.
13. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 28.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 26.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Things can’t go as badly as last season, when the Hornets went 19-63 with the third-most games lost due to injury in the league. Adding Collin Sexton will give the Hornets a go-to scorer with LaMelo Ball on the bench or sidelined, and 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller should be expected to take a step forward in his development.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 17.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 20.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given the number of rookies on the roster, I expected Brooklyn to have the league’s worst projection. The Nets also have just two players who rate better than league average. Still, there’s enough talent with the additions of Haywood Highsmith, Terance Mann and Michael Porter Jr. in salary dumps to keep Brooklyn competitive to start the season.
15. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 14.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 20.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given how my model tends to compress the expected standings to avoid bad misses, this is a shockingly low projection for the Wizards. In fact, it’s the worst I’ve calculated for a team since adopting this model in 2010. After trading away veterans at the deadline and again this past summer, Washington doesn’t have a single player who rates in the league’s top 130.
