College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 7

The biggest results from Week 7 were Indiana’s impressive road win at Oregon and Texas’ sound victory over Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, but there were other games that impacted the postseason picture.

Texas A&M continued its strong start by routing Florida, Texas Tech wiped out Kansas to keep its hold on the Big 12, Georgia Tech remained unbeaten and SEC contenders Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia all came away with wins.

As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Alabama

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Georgia

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: These things have a way of being settled with time, but there is a strong case for the SEC to send five teams to the playoff, and who those five teams should be is still up for debate.

For now, I settled on Texas A&M (bye), Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia and LSU, but there are nine teams in the conference with zero or one loss, plus two-loss teams in Texas and Mississippi State. What this means is there will likely be some SEC vs. SEC first-round games. In this case, they are 10. Georgia at No. 7 Alabama and No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss.

Georgia Tech is a new inclusion on my playoff pairings this week with the Yellow Jackets 6-0 at the midway point of the season.

Schlabach: I’ve got two new teams in my top four after Indiana’s stunning 30-20 upset of Oregon on the road. The Hoosiers are a legitimate CFP title contender, regardless of their nonconference schedule, and coach Curt Cignetti is going to be one of the hottest commodities in the coaching market this offseason.

I also moved Texas A&M up one spot after its 34-17 win against Florida at home. Ole Miss fell to No. 5 after a closer-than-expected 24-21 victory against Washington State at home. The Rebels might have been looking ahead to this week’s SEC road trip to Georgia.

Georgia Tech is also in my bracket for the first time this season after its 35-20 win against Virginia Tech, which moved the Yellow Jackets to 6-0 for the first time since 2011. I love the physical football team Brent Key has built on the Flats, and Georgia Tech faces a tricky road trip to Duke this week. Oklahoma fell out of my bracket following its 23-6 loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas. I also considered USC, Tennessee and BYU for the final at-large spot.

South Florida continues to be impressive — the Bulls overcame some early turnovers to rout North Texas 63-36 on the road Friday night — to keep the fifth conference champion spot. I also considered Memphis.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Indiana

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Texas Tech continues to look like the class of the Big 12 and a possible meeting with Texas A&M in the quarterfinals would be one of several interesting games in the quarterfinals. Another Oregon vs. Ohio State playoff game would give the Ducks a chance to avenge last year’s exit at the hands of Buckeyes. Indiana and Miami are jockeying for the No. 2 seed.

Schlabach: I have the favorites advancing out of the first-round games, although the potential Georgia-Oregon game in Athens, Georgia, would be a tightly contested one with Kirby Smart facing his former defensive coordinator, Dan Lanning. The Bulldogs have some obvious flaws in the offensive and defensive lines, but they keep finding ways to win on the road. I’m not sure they’d be able to handle Ohio State’s menacing defense in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech continues to play like the class of the Big 12, and Alabama has regrouped nicely after losing at Florida State in its opener. The potential Orange Bowl would feature two of the best quarterbacks in the FBS: Miami’s Carson Beck and Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Miami

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: After Indiana went to Autzen and beat Oregon, the Hoosiers can claim the best win in college football this season. But that was also the case for Oregon after it won at Penn State — and it only took a week for that result to be framed much differently.

It’s hard to think of many turnarounds that can even be compared to the one Curt Cignetti is executing in Bloomington. There are shades of Kalen DeBoer at Washington, but DeBoer did it at a place with a history of success. Turning Indiana into a national title contender at all — let alone this quickly — would have seemed impossible two years ago.

Schlabach: I’m going with chalk again with the top four seeds advancing to the semifinals. I love what Mike Elko is building in his second season at Texas A&M. The Aggies are playing much better on defense and are a complete team. They still play four road games in the SEC, starting with Saturday’s trip to Arkansas. They’ll play at LSU, Missouri and Texas in November. Ouch.

I’ve got Ohio State and Miami meeting in the CFP National Championship game. I’m not sure I’m completely sold on the Hurricanes just yet, but they’re playing very well. They might be tested by Louisville at home Friday night.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Arizona
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: San Diego State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Army vs. Penn State
Schlabach: TCU vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Navy
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Duke vs. Penn State

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Virginia vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Appalachian State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oklahoma

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Syracuse

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Texas

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Utah
Schlabach: Illinois vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Northwestern

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Houston vs. South Carolina

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State