2025-26 NBA season simulation: Predictions, playoffs, Finals

How will the NBA season look if my stats-based projections are an accurate measure of team ability?

The purpose of simulating the NBA season ahead of time is generally to see how often various things are likely to happen, from the weakest teams winning the draft lottery to the best ones taking home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

It can also be fun to go through individual runs of the simulation to give an idea of what unlikely events could become reality based on random chance.

In the spirit of ESPN’s NFL tradition of detailing the events of a single simulation, let’s go through the NBA season using simulation No. 620 — chosen because of its interesting outcomes — from opening night to the end of the NBA Finals.

Note, this is not my prediction (or ESPN’s) of how this season will unfold. The outcomes are produced at random via simulation, and everything else, including player stats, takes creative license.

Along the way, we’ll crown an NBA Cup winner, enjoy the action on Christmas Day, determine the final playoff seeds, set the draft lottery and winner, run through the play-in tournament, playoffs and finally, name the 2025-26 NBA champion. Let’s get to it.

Oct. 21: Thunder, Warriors dominate Opening Night

Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors over Los Angeles Lakers

After getting their championship rings and raising the first banner in the rafters at Paycom Arena, the Thunder showed why they were favored to repeat with an impressive win during Kevin Durant‘s Houston debut. Durant scored 27 points against his former team, the first day of the regular season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams both topped 20 points and Chet Holmgren had five blocks.

Later, the Warriors spoiled Luka Doncic‘s first home opener with the Lakers, handing them a 107-99 defeat. Afterward, an ebullient Draymond Green vowed that the Warriors, not Oklahoma City, should be considered the title favorites.

Dec. 16: NBA Cup final features unexpected matchup

Quarterfinals:

(1) Boston Celtics over (4) Detroit Pistons
(2) Miami Heat over (3) Cleveland Cavaliers
(4) Minnesota Timberwolves over (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (2) Memphis Grizzlies

Semifinals:

(1) Boston Celtics over (2) Miami Heat
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (4) Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA Cup final (Dec. 16):

(1) Boston Celtics over (3) Portland Trail Blazers

The NBA Cup, running from Oct. 21 to Dec. 16, resulted in an unexpected final in Las Vegas that pitted the Celtics against former guard Jrue Holiday and the Trail Blazers. Boston, off to a 16-10 start without the injured Jayson Tatum, finished as the No. 1 seed in the East play-in and beat the Pistons at home and the Heat in the semifinals in Las Vegas.

The upstart Blazers, also 16-10, took advantage of the Thunder getting upset by the Timberwolves at home during the quarterfinals. Portland also won on the road, in Memphis, and then beat Minnesota in the semifinals.

Alas, the Blazers’ run ended in a 115-103 loss. Portland shot 10-of-36 on 3s, while Derrick White and Payton Pritchard made four apiece for Boston, which immediately shut down talk of referring to the NBA Cup as “Banner 19.” Still, the Celtics were able to match the rival Lakers’ inaugural NBA Cup title.

Dec. 25: Knicks, Lakers stumble on Christmas

Struggling teams were the storyline on Christmas Day. The Cavaliers and Knicks, who entered the season as East favorites, were 11th and seventh, respectively, going into their matchup at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers, buried by early-season injuries to the backcourt, got some measure of satisfaction with a win over the Knicks.

There was no such relief for the Lakers, who dropped five games below .500 after losing at home to Houston.

The vibes were better for the top two teams in the West, the surprising Warriors and Thunder, who both won at home. So did the Denver Nuggets behind a 30-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.

Feb 15: Warriors all the hype at All-Star break

As the NBA gathered from Feb. 13 to 15 at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, the Warriors were the talk of the league. Green and Jimmy Butler III joined Steph Curry on the West roster thanks to Golden State’s league-best 42-13 record at the break.

In the rearview mirror of the experienced Warriors there was plenty of youth with the Thunder 4.5 games back in the West and the ascendant Magic atop the East with the NBA’s second-best record. After their slow starts, the Knicks and Cavaliers had righted the ships, moving up to second and fourth in the conference, respectively.

The Clippers were tied for fourth in the West, but their crosstown rivals continued to stumble. Now 12 games below .500, the Lakers were all but eliminated from the play-in race at six games back of the Sacramento Kings for 10th. LeBron James mused about taking March off to watch his son Bryce play in the NCAA tournament for the Arizona Wildcats.

Beware the Ides of April…

With less than two weeks left in the regular season, plenty remained at stake, including the top seed in the West. The Thunder had closed within 2.5 games of the still-hot Warriors. The race to avoid the play-in was hard-fought with three teams at 40 wins apiece, albeit with the Blazers two games back in the loss column of Houston and Minnesota.

Two games back in the loss column for the play-in, the Mavericks were still looking to make it with Kyrie Irving‘s return to the lineup. In the East, the Celtics — who had gone just 19-30 since winning the NBA Cup — were trying to hold off the Philadelphia 76ers and disappointing Detroit Pistons to reach the play-in.

April 12: Magic, Warriors top regular-season standings

The Warriors shut down any talk of a Thunder comeback by finishing the season on a 10-game winning streak to reach 63 wins, their most since 2016-17. In the East, the Magic ran away with the top seed and finished seven games clear of the Knicks.

The No. 6 seed in both conferences was decided via a tiebreaker. Cleveland, which fell back off the pace after the All-Star break, ended up in the play-in with the Milwaukee Bucks getting the No. 6 seed.

Meanwhile, Houston won a tie out West, sending the Timberwolves to the play-in a year after they narrowly avoided it. Defiant, Anthony Edwards vowed Minnesota would get back to the conference finals anyway.

Play-in tournament

Eastern Conference

No. 7 Cleveland Cavaliers over No. 8 Miami Heat (Cleveland clinches playoffs to face No. 2 Knicks)
No. 9 Chicago Bulls over No. 10 Boston Celtics (Chicago advances; Boston eliminated)
No. 9 Bulls over No. 8 Heat (Chicago clinches playoffs to face No. 1 Orlando; Miami eliminated)

Western Conference

No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers over No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves (Portland clinches playoffs to face No. 2 Thunder)
No. 10 Sacramento Kings over No. 9 Phoenix Suns (Sacramento advances; Phoenix eliminated)
No. 10 Kings over No. 7 Timberwolves (Sacramento clinches playoffs to face No. 1 Warriors; Minnesota eliminated)

Consider the Chicago Bulls the big winners of the play-in tournament, a place where they’ve got plenty of experience. Not only did Chicago win in Miami to claim the No. 8 seed in the East playoffs, but the Bulls also landed a first-round pick when Portland capped its unexpected season by winning at the Target Center to earn the seventh spot in the West.

Things went from bad to worse for the Timberwolves in the final game of the play-in tournament as the Sacramento Kings handed them a surprise 103-101 loss on a DeMar DeRozan pull-up jumper in the final five seconds. Sacramento players celebrated by donning “Kings of the Play-in” T-shirts, much to the Bulls’ dismay.

There was less drama in Cleveland, where the Cavaliers salvaged the No. 7 seed with a 31-point win over Miami reminiscent of last year’s dominant first-round sweep.

Draft lottery

1. Utah Jazz (from Minnesota Timberwolves)
2. Atlanta Hawks (from New Orleans Pelicans)
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Washington Wizards
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah Jazz)
6. Charlotte Hornets
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Los Angeles Lakers
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Philadelphia 76ers)
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Boston Celtics
13. Memphis Grizzlies (from Phoenix Suns)
14. Miami Heat

For the second consecutive year, a team eliminated on the eve of the playoffs won the NBA draft lottery. This time, the Timberwolves didn’t get to enjoy it like the Mavericks did in 2024. A swap from the Rudy Gobert trade sent the top pick to the Utah Jazz, who unsuccessfully attempted to deny their interest in drafting AJ Dybantsa from nearby BYU.

The news wasn’t all bad for Minnesota, which swapped down only to No. 5. Meanwhile, the 34-48 Pelicans didn’t benefit from jumping up to No. 2, sending that pick to the Hawks to complete their deal on 2025 draft night. The Nets and Wizards claimed the next two picks, having entered with the best odds because of their combined 25 wins.

Later on, the playoff-bound Thunder and Grizzlies acquired lottery picks through trades; the Grizzlies had the opportunity to swap for the Suns’ pick in the Desmond Bane trade.

Speaking to reporters before Game 1 of the NBA Finals, commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged that the league’s competition committee will revisit lottery odds to avoid teams preferring the lottery to advancing through the play-in tournament.

Playoffs

Eastern Conference Round 1

(1) Orlando Magic over (8) Chicago Bulls, 4-1
(2) New York Knicks over (7) Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-2
(3) Atlanta Hawks over (6) Milwaukee Bucks, 4-1
(5) Toronto Raptors over (4) Indiana Pacers, 4-3

Western Conference Round 1

(1) Golden State Warriors over (8) Sacramento Kings, 4-1
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder over (7) Portland Trail Blazers, 4-0
(6) Houston Rockets over (3) Denver Nuggets, 4-3
(5) LA Clippers over (4) Memphis Grizzlies, 4-2

The most anticipated first-round series — an expected matchup between the Knicks and Cavaliers in the conference finals — ended up fizzling. Banged up from a difficult regular season and play-in appearance, Cleveland was eliminated at home in Game 6. But there was plenty of drama elsewhere.

Two road teams with less experience won their Game 7s. The Toronto Raptors held former star Pascal Siakam to 15 points on 4-of-16 shooting for their first series win since 2020, and the Rockets shocked the Nuggets in Denver thanks to 12 fourth-quarter points from Durant. Houston hadn’t advanced in the playoffs since 2019.

The Clippers were the other lower seed to advance, beating Memphis, which ESPN BET listed as the underdog before the series. After winning Game 1 on the road, the Clippers closed out the Grizzlies at home in six games.

Eastern Conference semifinals

(1) Orlando Magic over (5) Toronto Raptors, 4-2
(2) New York Knicks over (3) Atlanta Hawks, 4-1

Western Conference semifinals

(1) Golden State Warriors over (5) LA Clippers, 4-2
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder over (6) Houston Rockets, 4-3

The top two seeds in both conferences advanced in Round 2. For a second consecutive year, the Thunder needed seven games to reach the conference finals, but the Rockets pushed the defending champs without injured point guard Fred VanVleet. “We’ll be back,” Durant said in a somber Houston locker room.

The Warriors beat the Clippers in a battle of the NBA’s two oldest rosters, and the Magic and Knicks reminded everyone that they’ve been the class of the East all season. Both dropped just three total games en route to a showdown in the conference semifinals.

Conference finals

(1) Orlando Magic over (2) New York Knicks, 4-1
(1) Golden State Warriors over (2) Oklahoma City Thunder, 4-2

The Magic cruised to their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2009, surprising New York at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead before completing the gentleman’s sweep.

Meanwhile, in a battle of the NBA’s last dynasty against a team aspiring to become one, the Warriors lived up to Green’s seasonlong hype. The teams split the first two games of the series before Golden State won the pivotal Game 5 and then closed out Oklahoma City on the road to host the NBA Finals.

And the NBA champion is…

(1) Orlando Magic over (1) Golden State Warriors, 4-3

The Warriors’ magical run to their seventh Finals in the past 12 years finally ran out of gas at home in Game 7, similar to Golden State’s loss to Cleveland in 2016. With Curry playing through a minor injury by the end of the season, the Warriors’ potent offense operated at less than full strength. Orlando took advantage, unexpectedly winning the first championship in franchise history barely a year after upgrading their starting lineup with Bane.

Paolo Banchero completed a breakthrough campaign by scoring 32 points in Game 7 and being named Finals MVP. He split votes with Franz Wagner, who averaged 22 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the series while defending Butler.

Interviewed on the podium by Lisa Salters, Banchero credited the victory to “620,” which observers interpreted as a remixed version of his native 206 area code.