First bets for Week 7: The Bucs’ run stops here, Giants cover in Denver

Week 7 gets underway with a matchup of AFC North rivals, as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on “Thursday Night Football.”

Sunday’s slate begins with the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars meeting at Wembley Stadium in London, and the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Los Angeles Chargers highlights the late afternoon window of games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions get together in a battle of offensive juggernauts to kick off a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, and the night wraps up with the Houston Texans visiting the Seattle Seahawks.

Eric Karabell, Pamela Maldonado, Matt Bowen, Eric Moody, Joe Fortenbaugh and Seth Walder looked at the early Week 7 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.

Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins–Cleveland Browns total points UNDER 40.5 (-115)

Bowen: Cleveland is averaging only 13.7 PPG this season, the second fewest in the league. And when you watch the Browns on tape, with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, they aren’t built to create explosive plays at a high rate. This feels like a game (based on the matchup) where rookie running back Quinshon Judkins is featured. Control tempo while leaning on your defense to limit Backdault and the Miami pass game. The game is in Cleveland, too. Take the under.
Last week: Buccaneers -2.5 vs. 49ers (Buccaneers won, 30-19)

Detroit Lions to cover -4.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fortenbaugh: This luckbox Buccaneers run is coming to a screeching halt at some point in the near future, so we might as well lean into the projected regression with a Lions team playing at home off a loss. Tampa Bay is now 5-1 on the season with a point differential of +14. To put that into perspective, the Seahawks are 4-2 with a point differential of +49 and the Texans are 2-3 with a point differential of +47. Throw in the myriad injuries to the Tampa receiving unit and you’ve got Detroit covering the 4.5 and restoring order to the NFC.
Last week: Steelers -4.5 vs. Browns (Steelers won, 23-9)

Cincinnati Bengals to cover +5.5 (-105) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Karabell: Let’s stop a bit short of expecting Joe Flacco and the Bengals to win the game, but it is a home game against a heated rival on a short week, and the addition of Flacco does change things. It’s not like Pittsburgh’s QB is some young fellow. Flacco should keep this game close in the fourth quarter, at the least. I would not take the Steelers in pools. This is a field goal game at the end.
Last week: Ravens-Rams over 45.5 (Rams won, 17-3)

New York Giants to cover +7 (Even) at Denver Broncos

Maldonado: The Giants are quietly figuring it out with Jaxson Dart. You can feel the shift. They finally have an identity. Run the ball, control the clock, make the other team uncomfortable. Dart isn’t putting up video game numbers, but he’s doing exactly what this offense needs: extending plays. The defense is starting to look nasty too, especially up front with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux collapsing pockets. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective. Going into Denver, this feels like another one of those ugly, grind-it-out games. The Giants are now built for that.
Last week: Eagles-Giants under 42 (Giants won, 34-17)

Carolina Panthers to cover -1.5 (+105) at New York Jets

Moody: The Panthers have won two straight and scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. Rico Dowdle erupted for 234 total yards two weeks ago and piled on 239 more in a Week 6 win over Dallas, and Carolina’s defense shut down Javonte Williams and Cowboys’ running game. The Jets, meanwhile, managed just 82 total yards against the Broncos in London, the third-lowest single-game total in franchise history. With momentum on their side and New York reeling, this is a great spot to back Carolina. The Panthers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
Last week: 49ers +2.5 at Buccaneers (Buccaneers won, 30-19)

Baltimore Ravens to MISS the playoffs (Even)

Walder: I’ll be the first one to say throw out any historical stats about how often 1-5 teams make the playoffs when it comes to the 2025 Ravens. Most 1-5 teams are simply bad, and despite whatever we have seen from Baltimore thus far, I don’t think anyone expects that this is a bad team going forward. And almost none of those teams have a perennial MVP candidate like Lamar Jacksoneither. And rarely have those teams faced the hardest schedule in the NFL (as the Ravens have) and will face the 27th-hardest schedule going forward (as the Ravens will). It’s because all of that that I was perfectly prepared to argue for Baltimore’s chances to make the playoffs — and then I saw the odds. The 1-5 Ravens are even money to miss the playoffs? They certainly could come back, but 50/50? That surprised me, and it certainly would shock FPI. The model, which assumes Jackson returns after the team’s Week 7 bye, gives the Ravens only a 25% chance to make the playoffs. The Ravens will need a lot to go their way to play playoff football again.
Last week: Steelers -4.5 vs. Browns (Steelers won, 23-9)