Week 7 betting: Saquon comes to life, Josh Jacobs keeps rolling, plus a pair of teasers to play

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let’s dive into Week 7. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

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Why Kurt Warner is worried about the Eagles

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Carolina Panthers–New York Jets total points UNDER 41.5 (-105)

Tough to bet on the Jets offense at this point. That unit ranks in the bottom 10 in scoring, and the pass game is limited due to Justin Fields‘ lack of timing and pocket awareness. Plus, the Jets will see a Panthers defense that ranks ninth overall versus the run (94.5 yards per game). On the flip side, Carolina is scoring 22.0 PPG (19th). Take the under. — Bowen

Miami Dolphins–Cleveland Browns to go UNDER 36.5 (-110)

With the weather calling for wind gusts of up to 60 mile per hour in Cleveland on Sunday, let’s take the under in this one. Remember, starting quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Dillon Gabriel are both timing and rhythm throwers who lack the arm strength to drive the ball through the wind. That makes the passing game for Sunday unpredictable — at best. The run game leads the call sheet here, and both teams already rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring. — Bowen

Two-team, six-point teaser (-110): Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (+5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+0.5)

Let’s tease the Chargers up to +5 at home versus the Colts. Now, I really like what Indy can do on offense with Daniel Jones. He’s a ball distributor and manages a system that features a high-level run game with Jonathan Taylor. But I’ll take the Chargers (with the points), as Justin Herbert can target a Colts secondary that may get back Kenny Moore II (Achilles).

On the other end, Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, and he might get Mike Evans back for the Monday night game in Detroit. That’s critical with Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) both doubtful for this one. However, in a game that has the make-up of a shootout, I’ll take Detroit’s explosive-play offense, and we get to tease the spread down to a half a point. That’s a winner. — Bowen

Two-team, six-point teaser (-139): New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-1.5), Houston Texans (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks

I like Denver with Vance Joseph’s defense versus rookie Jaxson Dart. But I like it even more taking the spread down to -1.5 for the Broncos at home. Bo Nix hasn’t played his best football, and the Giants’ edge rushers can be disruptive. Low-scoring game here, but Denver covers.

On the other side, we can move the line up to +9.5 for the Texans, and I feel good about that when looking at DeMeco Ryans’ defense. This Texans unit is giving up only 12.2 points per game (lowest in the league), and they rank in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game. Limiting Seahawks’ wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a must. We know that. But the Texans also have the personnel to create pocket disruption versus quarterback Sam Darnold. And offensively, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins can create matchups against a Seahawks defense allowing 235.5 passing yards per game (24th). Take the Texans to cover. — Bowen

Offensive player props

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Yates: Skattebo is a top-15 fantasy RB for Week 7

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Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-120)

Yes, Lawrence has had 40-plus pass attempts in half his games this season, but we have to contextualize those attempts with the down, distance and game situation. When we do, we find that the Jaguars are a run-leaning team with a negative-8% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. On top of that, the Rams defense has been inducing opponents to run more than they usually do. Teams have recorded a negative-8% pass rate over expectation against Los Angeles but negative-2% in all other games. Together, those two factors push my model way under here. — Walder

Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 21.5 completions (-120)

Lawerence is averaging 21.5 completions on the season, so the number is right. But these international games have been rough to watch. Bad football there. So, I’ll take the under for Lawrence in London versus a Los Angeles Rams defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 52.3 this season (seventh lowest). — Bowen

Sam Darnold to go UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-110)

My model likes this bet, and even with just a glance, this looks like a favorable number. Darnold has thrown three picks this year, putting him at a 1.8% interception rate that is roughly league average among starters, but he also hasn’t had any potential interceptions dropped, so my model sees him slightly more favorably than the 1.8% rate would suggest. More important, though, is that Seattle is favored! As scary as the Houston pass rush is, the fact that the Seahawks are solid 3.5-point favorites means we can expect fewer pass attempts for Darnold due to game script and fewer risks if he is playing from the lead. I price this under at -137. — Walder

Cam Tax House to go UNDER 2.5 receptions (+105)

Running backs catch passes against zone coverage at almost double the rate they do against man coverage (an incredible split!). We’ve been using this fact — and my belief that it is not fully baked into the betting market — to mostly bet reception overs against the Dallas Cowboyswho are playing almost historic levels of zone coverage (82% of the time). The flip side of the coin works, too — running back reception unders against man-heavy teams. And there is no team that plays more man coverage than the Denver Broncos. Their 65% man coverage rate isn’t a historical anomaly, but it is the highest in the league by a healthy margin. — Walder

Bo Nix to go OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-120)

As I said above, the Giants have the edge rushers to heat up the pocket versus Nix, and I think that forces him to move/play off-schedule as a runner. Nix has rushed for 20 or more yards in four of his last five games. He hits the over again in this one, using his dual-threat ability on scramble attempts. — Bowen

Saquon Barkley to go OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)

Barkley’s numbers have been down this year, as he is averaging only 54.2 yards rushing per game. But if Philly wants to create offensive answers and establish more tempo, it starts with the O-Line and the run game. That’s Eagles football. Take Barkley to hit the over against a Minnesota run defense that is allowing 132.2 rush yards per game (24th). — Bowen

Josh Jacobs to go OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jacobs has rushed for 80 or more yards in three of his last four games and is averaging 19.6 carries per game on the season. We have to remember that the run game is a foundational piece on Matt LaFleur’s offense, so look for another volume day for Jacobs versus Arizona in Week 7. — Bowen

J.K. Dobbins to go OVER 61.5 yards rushing (-110)

Dobbins has topped 62 yards rushing in five of six games this season, and he’s averaging 15.2 carries a game. With steady volume, let’s take Dobbins to hit the over versus a Giants defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. — Bowen

Travis Kelce to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is back for suspension for the Sunday matchup versus the Raiders, but I don’t think that erases Kelce’s impact on quicks and middle-of-the-field throws. Kelce has topped 42 yards receiving in five of six games played, and he gets a Raiders defense giving up an average of 45.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Kelce stays busy in this one. — Bowen

Tory Horton to record 50+ receiving yards (+450)

Horton absolutely fits the profile of the type of player my alternate receiving yards model typically targets (which, granted, has not exactly resulted in much success this year!). He’s a deep threat, running deep fades and go routes 21% of the time (third-highest among wide receivers with at least 80 receiving yards this year), along with a 53% vertical route rate overall (fourth-highest). We seek these types of players for these types of bets because we’re not concerned with the median outcome – go routes are inefficient on average, for example – but rather upside. And deep routes provide plenty of upside. Plus, Horton’s efficiency has been pretty solid, too, with 2.2 yards per route run vs. man coverage – an early indication of skill for the fifth-round rookie. — Walder

Zach Ertz to score Anytime TD (+200)

Ertz has caught a touchdown pass in three of six games played this season, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will scheme for his tight end in the low red zone area of the field. Lot of juice on this bet, and it fits versus a Dallas defense that has given up a league-high 15 touchdown passes. — Bowen