All are valuable tools, but there’s actually a fairly simple method to determine if a young quarterback is a franchise guy:
Does he make the playoffs within his first two seasons as a starter?
When you go through the history of “modern” NFL quarterbacks — basically from the 1980s onward — most of the top players reached the playoffs within their first two seasons.
Looking at every first-round pick since 2000, plus most of the significant starters from the 1980s and ‘90s, I broke down quarterbacks into four categories: Hall of Fame-caliber legends, today’s starters, starters of yesteryear, and busts.
The stats weren’t always pretty, and of course there are outliers. But quarterback is a leadership position first and foremost, and almost all of the best quarterbacks lead their teams to the playoffs even when they are young and still learning the position.
⋅ The “legends” category is where you see the clearest correlation. There are six players in this category who were late bloomers and didn’t make the playoffs right away — most notably three-time Super Bowl winner Troy Aikman, two-time MVP Steve Young, and 13-time Pro Bowler Drew Brees. Young gets an asterisk, because he did go to the playoffs in his first year as a starter (1992), but it took eight seasons to get there.
Otherwise, almost all of the best quarterbacks in modern NFL history took their teams to the playoffs within two seasons: Tom Brady, Joe Montana, John Elway, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and more. Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Joe Flacco also went to the playoffs within their first two seasons.
⋅ The “bust” category also has a strong correlation with quarterbacks who didn’t make the playoffs. There are six who started out well with an early playoff appearance, likely because they were surrounded by good teams, but fizzled out quickly: Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, Mark SanchezColin Kaepernick, Mitchell Trubisky, and Tim Tebow.
But the list of first-round busts who didn’t make the playoffs is long and ugly, with names such as Matt Leinart, J.P. Losman, and Joey Harrington among the 18.
⋅ Moving into the “players of yesteryear” category — good starters who won’t be considered by the Hall of Fame — it presents more of a mixed bag.
The list of those who did make the playoffs in the first two years: Drew Bledsoe, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Andy Dalton, Mark Brunell, Jon Kitna, Jake Plummer, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Teddy Bridgewater.
A lot of very good quarterbacks, highlighted by Wilson, a Super Bowl winner and borderline Hall of Famer, and Luck, who could have been on a Hall of Fame track had he not retired early. McNabb, Bledsoe, and Garoppolo also played in Super Bowls.
There also is a solid list of quarterbacks who didn’t make the playoffs in their first two seasons: Cam Newton, Boomer Esiason, Derek Carr, Vinny Testaverde, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, Jeff Garcia, Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Sam Bradford.
Newton and Hasselbeck played in Super Bowls, while Newton and Esiason won MVPs.
But several of these quarterbacks (Newton, Carr, Hasselbeck, Garcia) made the playoffs in their third season. And I see a delineation between quarterbacks who played 20-30 years ago, when the NFL was more patient and quarterbacks didn’t usually play well right away, and those who played more recently.
⋅ Finally, we get to the category that matters most for Maye and the Patriots: today’s players. Here, again, we see a clear trend.
The list of quarterbacks who make the playoffs by their second year: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, and Mac Jones.
That’s practically every good quarterback playing today, including the gold standards — Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, and Burrow. A lot of people probably don’t remember that while Allen was completing just 58.8 percent of his passes in 2019, he still led the Bills to a 10-6 record and wild-card spot. Even Stafford, who lost his actual second season to a back injury, came back in 2011 to lead the woeful Lions to a 10-6 record and a playoff spot.
More importantly, Jones and Wentz are the only quarterbacks trending toward the “bust” category. Everyone else on the list is or was a franchise guy.
Now here is the list of current quarterbacks who didn’t make the playoffs within two years: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Anthony Richardson, and Trey Lance.
Mayfield has turned into an MVP candidate, though it took him four teams and seven seasons to establish himself. Herbert has big potential, Darnold has a great late-bloomer story, and Daniel Jones might be on that path, too. Otherwise, this is not a list that inspires much confidence.
This analysis is not the be-all end-all, but if Patriots fans want to know if Maye is a franchise quarterback, the evidence is right there.
Legends: Hall of Fame caliber
Did make playoffs in first two seasons: Tom Brady, Joe Montana, John Elway, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning (22 Super Bowl titles, 17 MVPs)
Didn’t make playoffs in first two seasons: Steve Young, Drew Brees, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Steve McNair (Five Super Bowl titles, three MVPs)
Did make playoffs in first two seasons: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford (Year 2 lost to injury), Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones (Six Super Bowl titles, five MVPs)
Didn’t make playoffs in first two seasons: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance (0 Super Bowl titles, 0 MVPs)
Did make playoffs in first two seasons: Drew Bledsoe, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, Mark Brunell, Jon Kitna, Jake Plummer, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Donovan McNabb (1 Super Bowl title, 0 MVPs)
Didn’t make playoffs in first two seasons: Cam Newton, Boomer Esiason, Derek Carr, Vinny Testaverde, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford (0 Super Bowl titles, 2 MVPs)
Did make playoffs in first two seasons: Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Colin Kaepernick, Mitchell Trubisky, Tim Tebow
Didn’t make playoffs in first two seasons: Blaine Gabbert, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, EJ Manuel, Josh Rosen, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Dwayne Haskins, JP Losman, Brady Quinn, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.
