On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.
And they saw a lot in Week 8.
Undefeated Miami went down in a stunning loss at home to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to move up.
There was a lot of movement in Week 8, and the committee members will do their own mock ranking to help the new members better understand the process. They will use the results to-date, but the first of six real rankings won’t be revealed until Nov. 4. The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 8’s top 12 projection is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Ohio State (7-0) Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the top spot got tighter after Miami’s home loss to Louisville on Friday night, but the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin on the road with ease, earning its third Big Ten road win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 overall in total efficiency — according to ESPN Analytics. They were also No. 2 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record — all metrics that indicate the total package the committee is looking for with eye test and résumé.
Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and as a result of Miami losing to Louisville, but the Hoosiers are here because they won at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. More than that, it put the Hoosiers in contention for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to build upon that on Saturday against the Spartans, earning their fourth straight Big Ten win, including two on the road. One of the biggest differences between IU and Ohio State in the eyes of the committee would be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win against Texas, which trumps IU’s wins against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease, 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion, 63-10.
Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.
Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has now beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State did happen, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in both the national picture and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a better nonconference win at Notre Dame, while Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin team at home on Sept. 13.
Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 win against a now 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road win of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.
Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it would be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season, but can meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies can survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what should be CFP Top 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and some committee members would consider the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a better loss than Miami’s home loss to Louisville after a bye. The head-to-head result will keep Georgia behind the Tide, though, as long as their records remain the same. Saturday’s win against previously undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ best win of the season and one of the better wins in the country.
Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who think Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference wins are Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.
Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can win the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponents the Bulldogs face.
Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just 5 of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss had a better loss in Week 8 on the road to Georgia than the Canes’ home loss to Louisville.
Need to know: The Canes’ chances of earning a first-round bye as a top four seed took a hit with their loss to Louisville. In the straight seeding format, the selection committee’s top four teams will earn the top four seeds — they are no longer reserved for conference champions. Miami could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but still finish outside of the top four. The selection committee compares common opponents, and will consider that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama did not, but the Tide could win the overall debate with a stronger résumé. The committee also considers how teams lost, and the Canes made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball against Louisville, but the Cardinals are a talented team that could be in the CFP Top 25 on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its own state. The Mustangs beat Clemson, 35-24, on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Why they could be here: A close road loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the field, but their overall résumé could use a boost after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane found a way to escape Army on Saturday — though the Green Wave needed two touchdown passes in the final two minutes to do it. Tulane remains in contention for a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and Ole Miss beat the Green Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The selection committee pays close attention to how these games are won and lost, and will have seen Ole Miss struggle with Washington State and its inability to make some critical defensive stops against Georgia.
Why they could be lower: Statistically, Oregon has been the more complete team, entering Week 8 No. 5 in total efficiency while Ole Miss was No. 30. The Ducks were No. 4 in the country in points margin, and No. 13 in scoring defense. Ole Miss has also been one of the nation’s most penalized teams, ranking No. 118 with 7.83 per game and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per game, while Oregon is in the top 10 in both categories for fewest penalties and yards. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss also ranked No. 63 in schedule strength while Oregon was No. 25.
Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.
Why they could be here: The Ducks returned to their dominating form, albeit against a now 3-4 Rutgers team. Oregon has flourished against lesser competition all season, leaving no doubt it’s the better team and padding its stats along the way against teams like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They needed double overtime to win at Penn State, though, and lost at home by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times against the Hoosiers. Their best wins so far have come on the road against Northwestern and Penn State, but selection committee members also consider the extraordinary amount of travel involved, including the nearly 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Need to know: If Oregon runs the table and finishes as a one-loss team without a conference title, this No. 8 spot would still give the Ducks a first-round home game as the higher seed, pitted against No. 9 Oklahoma in this case.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.
Why they could be here: The Sooners earned their first true road win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win against Michigan continues to be a valuable nonconference result, but the committee would probably be more impressed with Miami’s overall résumé. The Sooners’ narrow home win against Auburn has taken a hit over the past few weeks. Oklahoma’s win against South Carolina was further proof that quarterback John Mateer remains one of the most talented players in the country, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second game back from hand surgery.
Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.
Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.
Why they could be here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the field. Georgia Tech has two road wins against ACC teams over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule includes wins over power conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, but that pair is just 5-9 combined. None of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are currently ranked, and entering this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule strength was No. 94 in the country. Still, the selection committee would see on its game film cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards against Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a talented team that continues to find ways to win, including with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ score on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.
Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.
Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot as the Big 12 champion, but if the Cougars can manage to stay undefeated until the conference title game, they would keep their hopes alive for earning an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The committee would consider how the title game unfolded, and if BYU lost a close game or in convincing fashion. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having a good season and could be a CFP Top 25 team, but that’s a double edged sword because the Bearcats are also in their way.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could be here: The Irish have won five straight since their 0-2 start, but it’s the way they have played during that stretch that would impress the committee enough to consider them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put it all together against USC, its first win against a ranked opponent this season. The Irish won the old-school way, with a strong running game and a defense that has shown measurable improvement in each of the past four games. Special teams was also a factor against the Trojans.
Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
