TOKYO: Sanae Takaichi is on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her governing party secured a crucial coalition partner.
Takaichi, 64, is set to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tuesday’s parliamentary vote. If she’s successful, it would end Japan’s three-month political vacuum and wrangling since the coalition’s loss in the July parliamentary election .
The moderate centrist Komeito party had split from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party after a 26-year-long coalition. It came just days after Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, and forced her into a desperate search for a new coalition partner to secure votes so that she can become prime minister.
The Buddhist-backed Komeito left after raising concerns about Takaichi’s ultraconservative politics and the LDP’s lax response to corruption scandals that led to the party’s consecutive election defeats and loss of majority in both houses.
While the leaders of the country’s top three opposition parties failed to unite to seek a change of government, Takaichi went for a quick fix by teaming up with the most conservative of them: the Osaka-based Ishin no Kai, or Japan Innovation Party. The two parties on Monday signed a coalition agreement that includes joint policy goals on diplomacy, security and energy.
The fragile new coalition, still a minority in the legislature, would need cooperation from other opposition groups to pass any legislation.
Big diplomatic tests await the government will come within days — talks with U.S. President Donald Trump and regional summits. At home, Takaichi needs to quickly tackle rising prices and come up with economic stimulus measures to appease the frustrated public.
Unpopular among women An admirer of former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi’s breaking of the glass ceiling makes history in a country whose gender equality ranks poorly internationally.
But many women aren’t celebrating, and some see her impending premiership as a setback.
“The prospect of a first female prime minister doesn’t make me happy,” sociologist Chizuko Ueno posted on X. Ueno said that Takaichi’s leadership would elevate Japan’s gender equality ranking, but “that doesn’t mean Japanese politics becomes kinder to women.”
Takaichi, an ultraconservative star of her male-dominated party, is among those who have stonewalled measures for women’s advancement. Takaichi supports the imperial family’s male-only succession , opposes same-sex marriage and a revision to the civil law allowing separate last names for married couples, so women don’t get pressured into abandoning theirs.
“Ms. Takaichi’s policies are extremely hawkish and I doubt she would consider policies to recognize diversity,” said Chiyako Sato, a political commentator and senior writer for the Mainichi newspaper.
Rising prices and population decline If she’s successful in the parliamentary vote, Takaichi would immediately launch her Cabinet on Tuesday and make a policy speech later in the week.
A protege of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe , Takaichi is expected to emulate his economic and security policies.
She would have only a few days to prepare for diplomatic talks at regional summits, and with Trump in between. She is expected to keep ties with China and South Korea stable, despite concerns over her revisionist views on wartime history and past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine .
The shrine honors Japan’s 2.5 million war dead, including convicted war criminals. Victims of Japanese aggression, especially China and the Koreas, see visits to the shrine as a lack of remorse about Japan’s wartime past.
Takaichi supports a stronger military, currently undergoing a five-year buildup with the annual defense budget doubled to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027. Trump is expected to demand that Japan increase its military spending to NATO targets of 5% of GDP, and purchase more U.S. weapons.
Takaichi also needs to follow up on Japan’s pledge of investing $550 billion in the U.S. as part of a U.S. tariff deal.
Her policy plans have focused on short-term measures such as battling rising prices and improving salaries and subsidies, as well as restrictions against a growing foreign population as Japan faces a rise in xenophobia . Takaichi hasn’t addressed bigger issues like demographic challenges .
Takaichi may push the party to the right Takaichi’s mission is to regain conservative votes by pushing the party further to the right. The LDP’s coalition with the right-wing JIP may fit Takaichi’s view.
On Friday, Takaichi sent a religious ornament instead of going to the Yasukuni Shrine, apparently to avoid a diplomatic dispute with Beijing and Seoul. She also reached out to smaller opposition groups, including the far-right Sanseito, apparently in a bid to bring her coalition closer to securing a majority in parliament.
“There is no room for Takaichi to show her true colors. All she can do is cooperate per policy,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University political science professor. “It’s a pathetic situation.”
Early signs of political instability Many observers expect a Takaichi government wouldn’t last long and an early election may follow this year.
Experts also raised concerns about how Takaichi, a fiscal expansionist, can coordinate economic policies with Ishin’s fiscal conservative views.
“The era of LDP domination is over and we are entering the era of multiparty politics. The question is how to form a coalition,” Sato said, noting a similar trend in Europe. “We need to find a Japanese way of forming a coalition and a stable government.”
