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Washington — The 2024 New Hampshire primary is set to get underway on Tuesday, with just two Republican candidates left to compete for the state’s relatively small yet influential pool of GOP delegates.
While the number of delegates at stake in New Hampshire might pale in comparison to larger states, the results will influence the shape of the race for the GOP nomination going forward. Former President Donald Trump enjoyed double-digit leads over former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the last New Hampshire polls released over the weekend, but many of those surveys were conducted before Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race.
A strong finish from Haley could fuel her challenge to Trump, the clear front-runner, while a disappointing result could spell the end of her campaign. New Hampshire voters have a history of deciding their votes late, meaning Tuesday’s results could still hold some surprises.
Democrats technically have a primary, too, but President Biden won’t be on the ballot because of a dispute between the party and the state over the date of the election. The Biden campaign has instead urged Democratic voters to write-in the president’s name.
How many GOP primary delegates are at stake in New Hampshire?
Republicans have 22 delegates to the Republican National Convention up for grabs in the Granite State on Tuesday. A candidate will need 1,215 delegates — a majority of the total — to capture the nomination.
New Hampshire’s delegates will be critical for Haley in particular, since she remains the last candidate standing against Trump. It’s not yet clear how DeSantis dropping out of the race will affect Haley’s performance, but the Florida governor endorsed the former president.
Haley came in third place in Iowa behind Trump and DeSantis, and has vowed to finish stronger in New Hampshire. She has argued that she is the strongest candidate to compete against Mr. Biden in November. While Republican voters think Trump is their best chance of beating the president, head-to-head CBS News polling from earlier this month showed Haley leading Mr. Biden by the widest margin.
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Are New Hampshire’s delegates winner-take-all?
The major parties’ presidential nominations are ultimately chosen by delegates at the party conventions in the summer. Each state party chooses how it awards its delegates differently, but they are typically reflective of the result of the state’s primary or caucus. Some states award all the delegates to the candidate who comes in first, while others award them proportionally based on the percentage of the vote each candidate wins.
New Hampshire is not a winner-take-all state. Instead, any candidate who receives over 10% of a statewide primary vote will be awarded delegates, so Haley is likely to receive some delegates even if she loses to Trump. Above the 10% threshold, delegates are awarded proportionally.
The GOP nomination will be formally decided at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where delegates will gather from July 15 to July 18. The candidate with the majority of delegates will be declared the party’s nominee.
How many delegates are at stake for the Democrats?
Last year, the Democratic Party moved to shake up its primary calendar and allow South Carolina to hold the first primary. New Hampshire Democrats said moving the date of their primary would require a new state law and couldn’t be done in time.
The Democratic National Committee said the state violated the party’s rules by holding its contest earlier than allowed, and thus none of the state’s delegates would be up for grabs in the election. Mr. Biden also protested the primary date and withheld his name from the ballot, so anyone who wants to vote for the commander in chief will have to do so with a write-in vote.
Democratic candidates like Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson will be on the ballot Tuesday, but Mr. Biden is still expected to win. The party could ultimately decide to seat New Hampshire’s delegates at the convention this summer, but as of now, none will be awarded in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
In 2020, New Hampshire Democrats allotted 24 pledged delegates.
What is the current Republican primary delegate count?
Only one other state has held a primary contest so far — Iowa. The Hawkeye State held its caucuses last week, and Trump won more than half of the votes.
Thirty-eight delegates were up for grabs in Iowa. Based on the result, CBS News estimates that Trump is in the lead with 20 delegates, followed by DeSantis with eight and Haley with seven:
